Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[BurbankKarl]

That NOLA mayor is a knucklehead....doesn't he realize that those people are his constituents?

---

At Molly's, the party goes on
Though most bars in the French Quarter were closed Wedneday, Molly’s At The Market was packed with about 50 revelers who paid little or no attention to the television above the video poker machines.
“In 30 years, this place has been closed maybe 12 hours — and that was to put the bar in,” owner Jim Monaghan Jr. said.
Monaghan said he has a contingency plan in case the storm hits closer to home.
“If the water starts rising, we’ll take everybody up to the third floor and move the bar up there,” he said.
Peggy O’Connell said this is the second time she’s camped out at Molly’s while a hurricane has borne down on the Coast. The last time was Georges in 1998.
“It was totally packed in here,” recalled the 50-year-old French Quarter resident. “It was like Mardi gras.”

[cogitator]

LOL! That's right! We gotta check to see where Mr. Bullseye is!

I just checked the Weather Channel and apparently Cantore didn't make his expected shift to the west; he's still in Destin. He'll be lucky to see a hurricane-force gust there now.

[alancarp]

Oops - read the buoy time wrong -- should have a new report soon.

[Conservababe]

I don't mean to be callous, knowing how everyone is under great strain. But, I can't understand those who stay because others refuse to leave.

I, myself, am at my wits end worrying of my family in Breaux Bridge and Scott, La. If I lived there, I would evacuate and beg them to come also. But, I would be waving them goodbye, a few days ago.

And the elderly never want to go from their homes. That is understandable, especially those in pain. But, I would still insist that they evacuate, or if they chose not to, advise them you are going to go...with or without them. The threat of loss of life should be weighed against discomfort. I would call the physician and have him prescribe the maximum of pain killers and sedatives if necessary.

[kinghorse]

Wow,

I hope the new super pier at Pensacola makes it. That Ft Walton pier has been there for a while. Remember fighting for a spot during he black tuna runs.

[AmericanMade1776]

Dan Rather is in the Eye of the Storm.

[LikeLight]

Yeah, I'm guessing the server meltdown is everyone coming to check on CBS's bogus, now twice delayed, presser while the Ivan situation is escalating. What did Dan know, and when did he know it?

[dead]

Some mammals, such as the rhino, can decide whether to roam their outdoor enclosures or indoor pens. But the white tigers won’t have that option. “Just in case their enclosure should be breached,” they will be kept in their night pens, Burnette said. “We don’t need them roaming around.”

Great plan! What harm could a roaming rhino possibly cause?

[AmericanMade1776]

Piers can be rebuilt.....where are you dawg?

[gopwinsin04]

Molly's in 8 hours?

[Types_with_Fist]

I know it's satellite and it's at a slant. But the red part of the storm now encompasses a great portion of Southeast Louisiana, including all of Plaquemines, what looks like Orleans and part of Jefferson, Lafourche, with Terrebonne and my hometown of Houma looking to get some Hurricane winds in the next half hour or so.

On the satellite feed the storm did take a jog to what looks like the NE. But, again, the Hurricane winds look to be crowding up the Mississippi Delta.

The eye of the storm is approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Has anybody got anything on conditions in New Orleans?

[condi2008]

Jim Rocks. But so do Mancuso, Jeanetta and even "Warren Madden", the dirtbag who gets to fly into the eyes of these storms. But whatever happened to Mysterious Marnie?

[BurbankKarl]

Gulfport, MS reporting

barometer 29.67 falling
gusts 19 mph

[AmericanMade1776]

Let's try to remain positive.....

[Flux Capacitor]

----What harm could a roaming rhino possibly cause?----

Well, there's Michael Bloomberg....

-Dan

[Kennesaw]

"Pensacola to Mobile are under tornado warnings already with storms coming ashore. Pier at Ft. Walton Beach has already collapsed.B I'm sorry for NO too, but we have our problems as well."

How did you hear about the Pier?

[Dawgmeister]

We're in Milton, Santa Rosa County. Daughter's boyfriend is keeping us posted on Destin, Ft. Walton, Crestview. We lost our beaches twice in 1995 and they were just getting back to normal.

[WoodstockCat]

that would be bad. That's probably an extra hour or two over water (Mobile Bay) to feed the source.

[Flux Capacitor]

That IS positive. In reality, a situation like that would probably put the water above the top floor of the Cabildo.

-Dan

[gopwinsin04]