Posted on 09/14/2004 10:41:58 PM PDT by lainie
havent heard. LSU.EDU site should have it. I doubt it is a go.
I agree completely; but I also note the following: while it looks like the eye took a turn to the North during the last two frames, I get the sense that the bulk of the heavy storms continued NW. It seemed to me that the NW side of the eye tends to have a smaller density of heavy rain than the SE side of the eye (similar to a trail following a comet) for all of the frames, right until the last two—at such point the NW side was thicker than the SE side. I get the felling that the eye turned, but the mass of the storm had enough inertia to continue towards NO. If the eye returns to following that mass, sort of like a slingshot effect, NO could be hit.
Looks like it should hit east of NO I hope, and the farther the better.
Not that I wish harm to Mobile, it's just that NO seems like the most vulnerable spot with a large population.
My son went to school there for awhile, on at least one occasion we had to fly him out in the face of a hurricane, learned about the potential horror stories at that time.
my prayers are going out to you folks in the south. Stay safe.
I'm on the northeast Atlantic coast area of Virginia and have had torrential rain all day........and none of it has anything to do with any of the tropical stuff going on.
That will be coming this weekend, I'm sure.
Hugh - Second most destructive hurricane:
I know that was good through 2000, but I think Charley may have taken over that spot.
I'm seeing what you're seeing. This storm has a history of jogging W but seldom N. At least it looks slightly east of NOLA and not west which, I am told, would be disastrous.
IVAN is wobbling his way up the Mississippi!
Just checked AU's website, and so far it is still on. Of course, Auburn dismissed classes yesterday for the remainder of the week.
Many of us got faked out by wobble earlier today. I'll put it this way; I cannot rule out the possibility this one is not wobble, and sincerely hope it is indeed not wobble. I am still open to the prediction I made early yesterday of *initial* landfall at Southwest Pass, which is certainly still a few miles from NO and certainly east of it in longitude. I would now feel comfortable almost ruling out landfall anywhere west of about 91 W longitude.
I have been following Ivan since the beginning. I have relatives scattered throughout Fla. Fort Myers, Largo/Clearwater, Daytona Beach, and Pensacola.
They just said on Fox News with Shep that it appears it could hit Mobile Bay and that on the right of the hurricane is where the worst of it will be. They showed this little circle and Pensacola is right there on the right.
My mom has talked with our family down there and our cousin who is riddled with rheumatoid arthritis absolutely refuses to leave. Traveling is very hard on him. So the rest of the family are staying at the house with him and will try to ride it out. The main concern we have for them is they are completely surrounded by huge trees and are in an area where flooding has happened before. He was forced to retire early from the Marines due to the arthritis.
They don't seem to be saying much about Pensacola on the news. What is everyone's take on Pensacola's chances?
the national hurricane center just told a station in Mexico that they expect it to go right up into mobile, al bay in 4 hours.
Okay, here's the deal: to hit New Orleans with the eye will require a near 45 degree left turn immediately. Yes, everything from NOLA (maybe even Red Stick) to past Fort Walton Beach is gonna significantly feel this. Hurricane force winds will go from NOLA to Pensacola.
The current longitude of the eye's center is still just at the Miss/Ala border, and in this intellicast view, I see it moving almost due north -- maybe 5 degrees left of that.
That border region is still most likely the target, though it could hang out to Gulfport or Biloxi.
Hope everyone in those areas stays safe.
Between 16:15 UTC (11:15 am CDT) and the present hour, Ivan's eye has become less ragged and more symetrical, given what I see on the IR satellite loop. That is NOT a good sign.
What is the longitude of the AL-MS border? 88 deg 30 min W? Anyone know off hand?
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