Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[tutstar]

High and Low Tide Chart

[Types_with_Fist]

That's just about the worst case, isn't it???

If it continues to go NNW, yes. For years people have always counted on "the turn." It's happened time and time again and New Orleans has lucked out. There's always been a question: "Will this one be 'The One'?" Just like in The Matrix, "The One." Ivan may be "The One."

[gopwinsin04]

Anyone heard the press conference about opening up the Superdome as a shelter yet?

[MamaB]

I am in HSV and just heard on WVNN that all high school football games in the state have been canceled. Better safe than sorry.

[TheLion]

Knots make sense for a seaman, but not a bunch of landlubbers!

[agrace]

HA! Post of the day.

[Tuxedo]

The 4PM CDT update will be the key to what this bad boy is going to do. If it continues to move west of N, then look out. It should pick up 5-10 more MPH on the MSW measurement. Gusts are up to 140 knots.

[hummingbird]

What part of I-10 is that? I used to have a cam location in the French Quarter and watched people in a TS partying one time! Arghhhhhh..........I can't find it now. Anyone got cam sites in Louisiana, especially New Orleans, French Quarter, Slidell, Lake Ponchatrain, Lafayette and Morgan City?

[cajungirl]

airline hwy and interstate bumper to bumper, unbelievable. In Baton Rouge, some breezes in gusts, gorgeous day, really beautiful. We are out taking down two trees and battening stuff. Neighbor just asked if he could put his boat in my yard! Safer there, no dead trees. I said okay just in case we flood, might be nice to have a boat at the ready. Nothing like waiting till last minute to take down trees.

[gopwinsin04]

I would imagine all college games for the Gulf Coast are now cancelled as well.

[oldleft]

"Anyone heard the press conference about opening up the Superdome as a shelter yet?"

Would that be safe? I'm not sure how strong the roof is, but I know the heat would be a problem.

[agrace]

Don't know about TV but weather.com is saying between Gulfport and Pensicola.

[brothers4thID]

Thank you for that bit of wit. Nothing like sarcastic drollery to abate the visceral pre-storm fear!

[cajungirl]

I10 going west out of NO to Baton Rouge. Go to NOLA.com for web cams.

[BurbankKarl]

Saying that weathermen should stick to the weather, Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard blasted FOX 8 meteorologist Bob Breck during the station’s 9 p.m. newscast Tuesday for telling residents to delay their evacuation plans until eastbound traffic eased on Interstate 10.
Broussard told anchor John Snell that the comments, which Breck made around 2 p.m. as he pointed to live video of cars crawling up Interstate 610, subverted public safety and elected officials’ unified directive for residents to get out as Hurricane Ivan churned offshore.
“The important thing was to not have a contradicted message at that point in time,” said Broussard, via live feed from the parish’s Emergency Operations Center in Marrero. “Editorialize later.”
Snell, who said he was not trying to defend the station or its meteorologist, noted that Breck’s comments came as official plans designed to move residents to higher ground seemed to be breaking down. WVUE-TV’s news director could not be reached Wednesday.
Broussard long has acknowledged the news media for their role in spreading official messages in times of crisis. When he heard Breck’s remarks Tuesday afternoon, “he was not pleased about it,” parish spokeswoman Jacquie Bauer said.
The parish president’s televised response came after Broussard updated reporters Tuesday evening on Ivan’s path and added that “people need to listen to their government officials as far as evacuation and that the meteorologists need to report the weather,” Bauer said.
A FOX 8 reporter “picked up on that,” she said, “and they asked if he would go live with John Snell.”

[AntiGuv]

...the heat would be a problem.

Less of a problem than being under 15 ft of water..

[MamaB]

I wonder if the colleges in MS., LA, and AL have games in state instead of away games.

[gopwinsin04]

Britney Spears house may be in the crosshairs tonight!

[BurbankKarl]

The homeless woman who lives on the neutral ground at Canal and Broad streets competed for space with vehicles as the storm grew near. She sat in the rain, next to her grocery cart filled with stuffed plastic bags and umbrellas saying she wound not budge.

“I’ve been through hurricanes and tornadoes,” she said. “I’m staying here.”

[Orlando]

I am very concern about flooding, because how can people get out ?