Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[southriver4]

That's just about the worst case, isn't it???

[Flux Capacitor]

Nope. Nuclear-powered temporal-displacement capacitor. :)

Whoever made that slow-motion road accident analogy nailed it. This sucker isn't going east at all. If anything, it's banked NW to put New Orleans even more directly into its path.

Insane frigging hellstorm.

-Dan

[slag]

This hurricane should have been called Kerry instead of Ivan. It has wobbled all over the place since day one and has continued to stay to the left, while the news media has been telling us continually it is moving more to the right.

[gopwinsin04]

Yep, Ivan is looking for a further water source..

[Tuxedo]

Could be our boy Ivan wants a bowl of gumbo and a Po Boy. I don't like the looks of this.

[Pyro7480]

NOLA TV Radar says its heading due North!

The satellite loop that I was just looking at looks that way too. Anything can still happen though.

[lugsoul]

Does that say 50 ft. waves around the eyewall? In the Gulf?

Jeez. I think I'd be leavin'.

[GOP_1900AD]

Of note, 88.2 deg W long. *was* the forecasted westernmost point. Any more western movement and the forecast is clearly too far to the east. I know I should not focus on the "projected track" but that is what the media are doing.

[gopwinsin04]

Its going straight up the Mighty Mississippi.

[agrace]

Weather Underground's 11 am strike probability map has NO pretty much dead-center, even while they show a recent jog to the north -

Scary. Wonder what the various tracking models say at this point.

[alancarp]

Buoy #42020 is now 1.4 degrees of latitude straight north of Ivan -- almost 100 miles. Gusts to 65 mph there, Pressure 29.34 inches (falling rapidly - duh). Wave height 38 Feet.

[BurbankKarl]

http://tinyurl.com/6mo9n

this gives a bigger picture than the NWS site

[TheLion]

"This hurricane should have been called Kerry instead of Ivan. It has wobbled all over the place since day one and has continued to stay to the left, while the news media has been telling us continually it is moving more to the right.

Brilliant...Bush should use that!

[Tuxedo]

Yep, and 88.2 is the center. I predict a hit between Mobile Bay and New Orleans, with massive destruction in the Mobile area. TWC saying path just slightly west of due north.

[MamaB]

Alabama has cancelled all high school football games for Friday, Sat. Sun, and Monday. I did not know that we had games on the weekend.

[pnz1]

Is TWC still saying landfall at Mobile/Mobile bay?

[alancarp]

The models are converging on the entire Alabama coastline with the Gulf.

[gopwinsin04]

8-9 hours from NOLA to Baton Rouge by car.

[Pyro7480]

It's pretty clear that Ivan is going to return to Cat 4 this afternoon.

I don't think it ever weakened enough to lose Cat. 4 strength. At the 1 pm CDT report, max. sustained winds are still at 135 mph, which is 4 mph more than minimum Cat. 4 wind strength.

[brothers4thID]

Thank you for the conversion table. That has been bugging me all morning. (Please don't tell my former CPO that I can no longer convert knots to mph)