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Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15
NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

Posted on 09/14/2004 10:41:58 PM PDT by lainie

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To: Theo; Severa
Pretty nasty thunderstorm right now, hm? (I'm in Chesapeake)

Haven't had t'storms yet - just steady rains since 8am.

I'm in accomack county on the mainland west of Chincoteague.

701 posted on 09/15/2004 10:49:37 AM PDT by Gabz (Hurricanes and Kerry/Edwards have 2 things in common - hot air and destruction.)
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To: BurbankKarl

NOLA TV station finally changing their forecasts to reflect the non-eastern tracking..


702 posted on 09/15/2004 10:49:47 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: BurbankKarl

They are going to have hurricane winds pretty soon!


703 posted on 09/15/2004 10:50:41 AM PDT by TheLion
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To: BurbankKarl

They keep reporting "moving north" (and have been doing so now for over 3 hours!) and yet, the component of motion is clearly NNW. What *is* up with that?


704 posted on 09/15/2004 10:51:13 AM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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NOLA TV Radar says its heading due North!


705 posted on 09/15/2004 10:52:08 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: GOP_1900AD

NHC at 1PM CDT says storm moving N at 14 MPH, MSW of 135 MPH.


706 posted on 09/15/2004 10:53:29 AM PDT by Tuxedo
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To: Quilla; Lakeside; Types_with_Fist

I know I'm far behind but...

The Fox guy, William Longiness (?) said (paraphrase, I was on phone at time) they were able to stay as long as they were not in iminent danger and would have to go when told


707 posted on 09/15/2004 10:53:55 AM PDT by Gabz (Hurricanes and Kerry/Edwards have 2 things in common - hot air and destruction.)
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To: rwfromkansas
It's pretty clear that Ivan is going to return to Cat 4 this afternoon. Hopefully no higher than that. As it approaches shore it will have less volumes of hot water to draw on, but that's the only I'm seeing that could weaken him slightly before landfall.
708 posted on 09/15/2004 10:54:27 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: GOP_1900AD

"They keep reporting "moving north" (and have been doing so now for over 3 hours!) and yet, the component of motion is clearly NNW. What *is* up with that?"



Maybe it is an optical allusion....been noticing the same thing.


709 posted on 09/15/2004 10:54:41 AM PDT by TheLion
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To: Chemist_Geek

It aint gonna be a bullet...it's gonna be a claymore mine..


710 posted on 09/15/2004 10:54:59 AM PDT by joesnuffy ( "Two Heads Are Better Than One"...."Unless They're On The Same Person" -Andy Sipowicz)
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To: Tuxedo

Except it moved from 88.0W to 88.2W in the past three hours. I would not call that N, but NNW.


711 posted on 09/15/2004 10:55:20 AM PDT by Tuxedo
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To: lainie

Looks like a different image now, no longer looking at the road. Dark and ominous sky at astronimical noon!


712 posted on 09/15/2004 10:55:52 AM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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To: TheLion

Decoded Message:

Storm IVAN: Observed By AF #963
Storm #09 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 123KT (141.5mph 227.8km/h) In SE Quadrant At 1427Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 110.7KT (127.3mph 205.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks:
Date/Time of Recon Report: Wednesday, September 15, 2004 9:12:00 AM (Wed, 15 Sep 2004 16:12:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 27° 31' N 88° 10' W (27.5°N 88.2°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2577m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 98KT (112.7mph 181.5km/h) From 290°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 014nm (16.1 miles) From Center At Bearing 188°
Minimum pressure: 939mb (27.73in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 40 nm (46.0 mi 74.1km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 3nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds


713 posted on 09/15/2004 10:56:16 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: Dog Gone

Highways are jammed....are these people going to get out in time?


714 posted on 09/15/2004 10:56:18 AM PDT by TheLion
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To: independentmind

Don't know if you were here in 1996 - big flooding in Greene and Madison, just north of Charlottesville. It was just so surreal to see Red Cross Disaster truck in front of my house. South River Road impassable for days. Graves Mountain, Hood, too. Another example: maybe the Nelson County story of Camille goes without saying. Hundreds of lives lost there from big water down the mountain. Yep. Flood. Bad.


715 posted on 09/15/2004 10:56:25 AM PDT by southriver4
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To: BurbankKarl

We're here in Bham and the reports are that we will have tropical force winds tomorrow.

We have heard a lot of folks are staying put in Mobile and Destin and Fairhope. I'm concerned for all of them.

I would not stay in that kind of wind. We've had 65 mile a hour winds on this mountain where we live. Our brick house shuddered! I don't think I would stay anywhere around where there are 150 mile an hour winds!

We have hunkered everything down here. Taken down our flags, layed down outside funiture, and brought in what wasn't heavy, and are going to get batteries and groceries, in a short-short!


716 posted on 09/15/2004 10:56:26 AM PDT by LadyPilgrim (Sealed my pardon with His blood, Hallelujah!!! What a Savior!!!)
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To: Howlin
It's a damn parade:

And to think I have always loved parades.

Not anymore....Good Grief.

717 posted on 09/15/2004 10:56:47 AM PDT by Gabz (Hurricanes and Kerry/Edwards have 2 things in common - hot air and destruction.)
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To: lainie

Whitecaps on the river now on this one.


718 posted on 09/15/2004 10:56:58 AM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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To: GOP_1900AD
What *is* up with that?

Some people just think that if you tell a lie long enough....it will happen, even if the opposite is logically and physically obvious.

719 posted on 09/15/2004 10:57:09 AM PDT by BureaucratusMaximus ("We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good" - Hillary Clinton)
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To: Tuxedo

It's trying to head straight up the Mississippi River.


720 posted on 09/15/2004 10:57:31 AM PDT by Types_with_Fist (God Bless Ronald Reagan!)
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