Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[alancarp]

I am about to violate provisions of my Accuweather service, and reprint an excerpt of Joe Bastardi's (expert opinion) online column in the interest of public safety.

"I think landfall is near Pascagoula Mississippi around 3 am. ... I think this will be the worst hurricane in the history of Mobile Alabama..., worse than Frederick in 1979 and one that will do tremendous damage to the bay area and the barrier islands."

He suggests that New Orleans will survive - that past hurricanes that were bigger and closer did NOT devastate the city as has been splashed over various news reports in the past 24 hours.

But Mobile will have a huge problem due to the circulation pushing sea water through a funnel-shaped bay -- a huge inland storm surge will be the result (note that the last close hit to Mobile (David?) emptied the bay since it landed EAST of Mobile. Ivan will hit to the West, thus piling up the water.

[Veto!]

THE VERY LATEST: Updated @ 11:43 a.m. • Landfall predicted at 1 a.m. in Mobile Bay

Yikes, we have freepers there, long-time very active "blam" for one. Praying for him and all others who live in the possible strike area.

[LadyPilgrim]

I think they call them on-site meterologists.

[GOP_1900AD]

The most recent probability map I saw (and even that was earlier this AM, when they were still calling for a turn) showed > 50% probablity for Mississippi River mouth.

[txhurl]

Vester actually declared it. Like y'all, I haven't seen it, and don't expect it.

[lainie]

Cause if they weren't they'd be himmicanes. [slap knee]

[No Blue States]

Its getting to where a NE turn wouldnt help much, and it may not have time to happen.


:(

[lainie]

bbiab..gotta run for awhile. I'll keep my fingers crossed it does alter.

[Howlin]

I lived in Greensboro then; I can still remember the way the wind from Hugo sounded when it came through here at 60 MPH.

Not a fun night, but nothing like what's going to happen here.

[LadyPilgrim]

Yes, and I'm in Bham! They are saying we are to have tropical force winds on Thursday!

Hurricane Opal in 1995, knocked out my phone and power for 8 days!

[lainie]

I'm sure they are too, and I've said repeatedly that they're just people too. I'm a little sick of people here slamming those of us saying what we see, is all. There's a little stay-in-line mentality going on.

One more thing.. you can clearly see NW movement on both the NO and Mobile long range radar loops.

[Orlando]

That's around high tide ?

[dawn53]

Here's another link that was posted earlier...if you scroll down there's a similar picture to the one you posted.

Not as dramatic, but it shows the parade.

http://www.nontoxic-internet.com/Ivan.htm#webcams

[AntiGuv]

Is it my imagination, or does Ivan look as if he's actually strengthening?

[Dog Gone]

I think that's exactly right. It's going to be far worse for Mobile with a more western landfall. Estimates are that the storm surge in the north end of Mobile Bay would be at least 13 feet, and up to 18 feet.

[dawn53]

I just checked back to the link and that's what it looks like to me too.

My sister called me and said the same thing.

Are our eyes deceiving us, LOL???

[Types_with_Fist]

On the radar, the tip of Plaquimines Parish is about to start getting red. About two or three more hours without a major turn and it'll come ashore just to the east of Lake Ponchatrain.

[No Blue States]

Thanks for posting that interesting opinion. (I wont tell)
Alabama hasnt been talked about that much, do they have refineries?

[Dog Gone]

It's not your imagination. The eye is more defined and the radar is more intense. Ivan is strengthening.

[nwctwx]

000
URNT12 KNHC 151611
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1612Z
B. 27 DEG 31 MIN N
88 DEG 10 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2577 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 290 DEG 98 KT
G. 188 DEG 014 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 11 C/ 3091 M
J. 19 C/ 3074 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF963 4009A IVAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 123 KT SE QUAD 1427Z.

New Recon back to 939mb, Ivan is sitting over that ultra-warm spot now and shear is basically gone.