Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[Quilla]

Could you imagine being stuck in the Superdome for a few days with all of New Orleans' homeless? It'll be a zoo.

[No Blue States]

"Right now, Camille is forecasted to stall to the south and west of Virginia. Pray that it stays that way."

you mean Ivan, right?

[alancarp]

(That should have been a # rather than $)

[Types_with_Fist]

That was my semi educated guess.

Well, I recall you "guessing" this early yesterday. You're a damn good guesser.

[commish]

NO, grew up in Buffalo NY. Moved to Macon, Ga when I was 12 (Talk about culture shock LOL). Joined the USAF in 1981, and have lived at the whim of Uncle Sam since then. Cocoa Beahc, Fla--Yuba City, Calif--Ramstien, Germany--to many sandy places that I really don't care to remember--and for the last 12 years Montgomery, AL.

Don't ask me how I have managed to stay under the radar and homestead at one Base for 12 years (minus deployements of course).

Montgomery is home NOw. I retire in 50 days, and will be taking a job doing Computer Security work here on base.

[jpsb]

Not again! Damn that Camille is one bad a$$ hurricane.

[flutters]

I watched it too. LOL

[gopwinsin04]

I'd rather drive to Galveston! LMAO..can you imagine the smell inside the Superdome??!!

[Severa]

Don't know about you but I'm getting rained on right now. They've also called for a flood watch here in VA Beach. Listen to this, I just got back from Walmart to get a new umbrella and I haven't been home 5 minutes before the downpour starts...

Haven't heard from hubby since yesterday morning, he called as I was getting the kids ready for school. Prayers offered up for all who are in Ivan's path.

[lainie]

I finally got one to run! WNSP.. so I'll monitor that.

Meterologist warns Mobile to expect 100 mph wind

[independentmind]

Whoops. I guess you can tell what's on my mind!

[Types_with_Fist]

can you imagine the smell inside the Superdome??!!

The Terrace Level, which is where they'll need to be if this storm hits, does not have near enough restrooms.

[alancarp]

How 'bout "Pray it keeps moving and doesn't stall anywhere." Right now, the forecast is that Ivabn's center gets to a point between B'ham and Huntsville Friday morning. THREE DAYS LATER, it gets past Chattanooga!! That would bring a catatrophic flood to the Tenneseee river valley and the lower Appalachian communities.

[Dog Gone]

Look at the crap Africa keeps sending us.

[dfwgator]

It'll be a zoo.

And all the animals will ax for you.

[augustus713]

This is like Camille reincarnated as Ivan. Near identical path both over water and what it'd projected to do over land.

[Severa]

Damn. 12 yrs at one base? That's gotta be a record *L* We've been here at VA Beach for 3 1/2 yrs.

[commish]

Pop's just left the house for higher ground in Tillman's Corner, but says water is over the seawall and the breakers are starting to lap at Bay Front Rd. Sh*t Fire!

NOt good, water has already risen above the seawall and there are still 12-16 hours until landfall. And it is supposed to hit at HIGH Tide!

[lainie]

the eye in the last frame of that looks like a mini-cyclone in itself

[Lakeside]

Thanks, Gabz.

Yup.. draining lakes. We had a flood a year ago last Spring. The lake rose to 3' *over* our dock (that's 8-10' above spring lake levels) and that was after just 5-6" of rain upriver. Thank goodness we live on a bluff. It would have to rise a great deal more to reach us.

I'm terrified for N.O.