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Beware of the Newsweek Poll (CRUSH KERRY)

Posted on 09/04/2004 5:49:17 PM PDT by American100

Did anyone else see this today? Looks like the liberal media is at it again.

Beware the Newsweek Poll: The latest poll from Newsweek has the President leading by 11. But don't get too excited. Their turnout model is weighted 37%-31% in favor of Republicans. Though it would be great, it bears no resemblance to history. We've warned you about some of these polls before. Don't get lulled into a false sense of security. Keep working.

from www.crushkerry.com


TOPICS: Political Humor/Cartoons
KEYWORDS: bushbounce; newsweek; polls
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To: EllaMinnow

You're welcome.


21 posted on 09/04/2004 6:43:28 PM PDT by sitetest (Spitball Kerry for Collaborator-in-Chief!)
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To: sitetest
GUYS, the poll IS as good as it seems. Newsweek already adjusted for the skew. Wait 'til Gallup's comes out, which will be all post-RNC responses (the 54-38 kind).
22 posted on 09/04/2004 7:08:07 PM PDT by hawaiian
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To: American100
If you used more realistic figures, like D-38%/R-35%/I-27% (which was about the ratio voting in the '00 election), and use the same percentages, the vote tally would be:

Bush/Cheney - 50%

Skerry/BreckGirlSilkPony - 43%

Still a nice bump, but not the amount being reported by Newsweek.

23 posted on 09/04/2004 7:08:10 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Don't call it the MSM- there's NOTHING mainstream about it, call it the LIBERAL media)
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To: NYC Republican

Dear NYC Republican,

"If you used more realistic figures, like D-38%/R-35%/I-27% (which was about the ratio voting in the '00 election), and use the same percentages,..."

That assumes two things:

1. The ratios haven't shifted in four years;

2. Folks self-identification by party label is highly stable.

I don't know that either assumption is valid. I'd especially question #2, especially right after a successful Republican convention. I wouldn't be surprised if some folks who normally identify as Dems will identify either as Reps or as Inds, at least for a few days. This year, that might be even more pronounced with Mr. Miller's highly-successful speech elucidating why someone who once considered himself a mainstream Dem might now think the party has left him.

I think Newsweek built in some weighting (otherwise the overall result would have been 54% - 40% rather than 52% - 41%), but I suspect they may have used other demographic variables more than party affiliation.


sitetest


24 posted on 09/04/2004 7:20:34 PM PDT by sitetest (Spitball Kerry for Collaborator-in-Chief!)
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To: American100

Never. 4 more years, 4 more years....


25 posted on 09/04/2004 8:14:21 PM PDT by tiki
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To: zook

"I don't think "weighted" is the right word. That implies intent. It may be that more people id with Rep. now."

If there are more republicans than democrats, which I think is the case, shouldn't a realistic sample have more republicans than democrats? Not a
close follower of polls, but just wondering.


26 posted on 09/04/2004 8:29:28 PM PDT by TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl
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To: POA2

According to Mickey Kaus, the Time Magazine poll has almost exactly the same weighting as the Newsweek Poll. Kaus quotes the Minuteman blog, which speculates that both polls oversampled Republicans because Republicans were home during the convention to take phone calls, while Democrats were out doing other things.


27 posted on 09/05/2004 2:58:47 AM PDT by Bonaventure
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To: Bonaventure

>>According to Mickey Kaus, the Time Magazine poll has almost exactly the same weighting as the Newsweek Poll. Kaus quotes the Minuteman blog, which speculates that both polls oversampled Republicans because Republicans were home during the convention to take phone calls, while Democrats were out doing other things.

There was a similar apparent oversampling in the Democrats
favor after the DNC and we howled to no avail.

Maybe its just a factor of people being charged up by the
convention, not really knowing how they are registered,
and more of them CLAIMING to be Democrat after a DNC,
or Claiming to be Repub after a RNC.
We're only talking 5 or 6 percent.

I really don't know how I'm registered, its been so long,
and I wouldn't be surprised if 5 or 6 percent were in the
same boat.


28 posted on 09/06/2004 2:22:07 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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