Posted on 09/03/2004 11:49:01 AM PDT by Cableguy
Luntz Research gathered 21 OH "swing voters" in Cincinnati to "dial test" Pres. Bush's acceptance speech. "All are undecided in their current preference." Moderator Frank Luntz (R) called "Bush's speech was an overwhelming success in the minds of these voters. By the end of the evening":
15 would vote for Bush and 6 for Kerry if the 2004 election were held today. (note: 12 voted for Bush in 2000 and 9 for Gore) 13 of the undecided voters had made up their minds to vote for Bush Thursday night specifically because of his speech, while only one person switched form undecided to Kerry. 20 of the 21 participants feel that Bush is better than Kerry on national security issues.
The reaction to "Bush's language and presentation style was very positive, but Bush's highest 'dial test' scores involved policy. Two of the three sound-bites that received the most favorable responses involved specific domestic policy initiatives":
Tax Simplification: "Another drag on our economy is the current tax code, which is a complicated mess -- filled with special interest loopholes, saddling our people with more than six billion hours of paperwork and headache every year. The American people deserve -- and our economic future demands a simpler, fairer, pro-growth system. In a new term, I will lead a bipartisan effort to reform and simplify the federal tax code."
Personal Retirement Accounts: "We must strengthen Social Security by allowing younger workers to save some of their taxes in a personal account a nest egg you can call your own, and government can never take away. In all these proposals, we seek to provide not just a government program, but a path a path to greater opportunity, more freedom, and more control over your own life."
Compassionate Conservatism: "I am running with a compassionate conservative philosophy: that government should help people improve their lives, not try to run their lives."
The "only complaint of the 21 participants with Bush's performance was a lack of more attention directed at the jobs issues." Luntz: "Remember, many of the swing states were hit hard by the recession and the job issue is on their minds. Bush has clearly opened up an advantage over Kerry on the essential issue of terror prevention, but he still has a way to go on the economy." Still, "on all the key election 2004 attributes and character traits, the Bush speech was an unqualified success." Luntz: "This was a homerun. It is the second most positive convention speech I have ever tested. Only Al Gore's 2000 convention address moved more people out of the undecided column and into his column."
Luntz "did suggest that Bush would benefit more" from his convo than Kerry: "George Bush clearly said what swing voters wanted to hear, and it's going to give him at least the three points Kerry picked up after Boston and probably one or two points more. More importantly, he has won back the Bush 2000 voters who had abandoned him in recent months. In crucial swing states like Ohio and Missouri, that's exactly what he needed to do -- nothing more and nothing less" (release, 9/3).
These "undecideds" though are not the brightest bulbs some times. They change their minds with different speeches and events, then probably end up not voting at all. I never pay much attention to those little groups, but it is good news that they felt positive about it...for now at least!
Excellent point..I often wonder about how they "find" these so-called "undecideds"...it's like folks who WANT to be on the OJ or Kobe juries...
Well, they are all 2000 voters, so my guess is that at least 19 of the 21 will vote this year.
Flipping 3/9 swing Gore voters to Bush is fatal for Kerry if the trend sticks.
2 of those "undecideds" were hard core RATs and spouted the DNC talking points. There weren't there by accident.
Still, the majority swung towards Bush. The tide has turned but we must continue to stay vigilent against the smear machine called "the DNC".
Click here to read facts about why we need an ownership society. (hat tip: FREEPER Veritas et equitas ad Votum)
Considering the extremely boring speeches John Kerry gives, George W. Bush will be just fine
To each their own I guess. Gore's speech got me to volunteer for the Bush campaign.
This is my first post. I am fairly new to politics. I have decided to vote for the first time in my life this year. After watching our president last night I felt inspired by him. I am sure the pollsters out there are underestimating how many people are going to come out of the woodwork to vote for Bush.
Every focus group report I have seen has shown a 2/3 to 3/4 support for Republicans and/or Bush after watching any of the Republican Convention speeches.... This combined with Kerry's buzzed if not flat out Drunk speech on the heels of Bush's will certainly do Kerry no favors.
Welcome aboard!!
From Luntz homepage:
"No other firm has as much credibility as Luntz Research when it comes to political analysis. Frank Luntz was the pollster of record for the Contract with America, the national Republican campaign effort widely credited with giving the GOP a majority in Congress in 1994. The football he used in focus groups during that historic campaign is now on display at the Smithsonian Institution.
Frank was the pollster for Rudy Giuliani's 1993 and 1997 campaigns and served as a consultant to Michael Bloomberg's successful 2001 run. He was also the winner of the coveted Washington Post "Crystal Ball" award for being the most accurate pundit.USA Today labeled Frank one of the nine most influential minds in the GOP, Newsweek called him one of the three primary "engineers" of the 1994 Republican landslide, The New York Times wrote that "his well-chosen words helped turn an election," and he is the "hottest pollster" in America according to the Boston Globe.
More media outlets have turned to Frank Luntz for polling and consulting than to any other political pollster. In the 2000 election cycle, Frank conducted almost two-dozen focus groups for MSNBC and CNBC, including live sessions following each night of both party conventions and presidential debates. He was a primary night and election night commentator for The News with Brian Williams on MSNBC, and his "100 Days, 1000 Voices" segments for MSNBC was given the coveted Emmy Award in 2001. "
The first thing I said when Kerry started speaking was " Is this guy sober? Omigawd....I think he's hammered!" My husband , another scientific mind, took one look & Said...."Yep". Did anyone else notice or comment on this? I'll tell ya, if he wasn't enjoying a "few" before he spoke, then any other explanation is even scarier. He really looked & acted srange...
Its so obvious, Its even linked on www.newsindex.com
Good news, but too bad the election isn't today.
2 months is a looo-oo-nnn-ggggg time for Americans.
" ... after watching any Republican convention speeches."
That's the problem: How many undecideds actually watched these speeches?
Welcome, and I hope you get involved and get your friends/family involved. I wasn't heavily involved either until 9/11. That is when I decided Republicans/Bush are right for American, and Democrats are wrong for America. They have become the party of Michael Moore.
Thank You, glad to be here.
Thank you, it is as you have said.
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