Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
definitely...
moving very fast....sucker may be on land before I get up around 10:30 in the morning or so.
Not very impressive development so far...
Should be cat 1....maybe my cat 2 prediction is too high.
Hopefully for the sake of the folks in its path.
If this sucker has not hit land by 1 p.m. tomorrow, hell must be cold as ice.
It has to hit land sometime in the morning.
I just heard a report that it was 85mph....on the Hurricane Network...said the plane just measured it....
The US Navy does believe in Court marshalls when ships are lost.
Halsey had more ships under his command at that time than I think we have today (we had 6000 ships at the peak of WWII). He had several Task Forces -- one, I think under Rear Admiral Bogan, knew which way to steer clear of the hurricane.
McCain's grandfather was a commander of Halsey Task Force at this time. But Halsey and Spruance alternated commands of the same ships, but gave them different Fleet Designations (5th and 7th fleets, I think), which probably confused the Japs.
Some of this I need to re-read in the official History of the US Navy in WWII.
One of the better stories, though, is how a battleship named Washington, under Admiral Lee, basically stood off a Jap Task Force at Guadacanal, but it ended with the Washington (under Lee) checking fire after 15 minutes and firing 75 16 inch rounds into the Jap Battleship. The Japs had some heavy cruisers, light cruisers and destroyers to attack with, but were really intimidated by the sinking of their battleship so quickly.
The USS South Dakota was part of this action, but had to withdraw (official line was that it was an unlucky ship, but it was not Battleship certified -- meaning when it fired its 16 inch guns, it threw all the electrical mains. At that time, our battleships were dependent on Fire Control Radar and other electrical things that put the South Dakota out of action in this engagement).
CHARLOTTE COUNTY (Punta Gorda)
• Up to 40 people came to Charlotte Regional Medical Center with storm injuries. The hospital was so badly damaged that patients were being transferred to other hospitals.
• At Charlotte County Airport, winds tore apart small planes. Hangars were collapsed, and roofs were torn off.
• The roof of the county's emergency operations center in Punta Gorda blew off.
COLLIER COUNTY (Naples)
• Officials said a "good portion" of the county was without power, and there was some flooding. No serious reports of damage.
DESOTO COUNTY (Arcadia)
• The roof was blown off at Turner Agri-Civic Center in Arcadia, a hurricane shelter where 1,200 people had gathered. There was one known injury.
• Large sections of U.S. 17 are peppered with downed utility poles; some parts of the road are completely blocked.
LEE COUNTY (Fort Myers)
• A Fort Myers man who stepped outside to smoke a cigarette died when a banyan tree fell on him.
• A tornado touched down in southwest Cape Coral. Cape Coral City Hall sustained damage. Cape Coral Hospital sustained significant damage.
• Eyewitness video showed the roof of a Fort Myers post office ripped off.
ORANGE COUNTY (Orlando)
• A wind gust causes a truck to collide with a car, killing a young girl.
POLK (Bartow, Lakeland)
• An amateur radio operator reports several mobile homes were destroyed.
SARASOTA COUNTY (Sarasota)
• A crash on I-75 kills one.
It has to hit land sometime in the morning.
Last prediction I saw was that H. Charley would hit North of Charleston between Georgetown and another town in the Northern part of the South Carolina Coast. I remember seeing a prediction of 8PM for it to be over North Carolina, but that means it might hit before 4PM in SC or maybe later...
Just can find that post -- somewhere between #2000 and here.
I found the following four radars helpful: Jacksonville, FL; Charleston, SC; and Greer, SC; and Wilmington, NC.
Links are:
Jacksonville, Fl Long Range Base Reflect
Wilmington, NC Long Range Base Reflect
Charleston, SC Long Range Reflect Radar
Greer, SC (Charlotte NC area included) Long Range Reflect
At this hour, the eye seems to be falling apart, but I AM NOT A WEATHERMAN.
There is a band of showers around Charlotte (quite a ways inland) -- otherwise, the system is basically offshore.
Time to call it a morning, get some sleep.
Punta Gorda hit badly. LE is guarding stacks of bodies in a mobile home park there according to FoxNews. 4 counties declared major disaster areas.
Prairie
Do we have a damage report thread going?
Not in my experience, but perhaps yours has been different?
There was some rain during the night, but I think any significant wind or rain would have woken me.
...Charley heading for the Carolinas...
at 5 am EDT...0900z...the Hurricane Warning is extended northward to the North Carolina/Virginia state line. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from north of Altamaha Sound Georgia to the North Carolina/Virginia state line including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended northward to Sandy Hook including all of the tidal Potomac... Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia state line to Sandy Hook including all of the tidal Potomac...Chesapeake and Delaware bays.
At 5 am EST...0900z...a tropical storm watch is issued from north of Sandy Hook to the Merrimack River including New York Harbor and Long Island Sound.
At 5 am EST...0900z...the Hurricane Warning is discontinued from Altamaha Sound Georgia southward.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located near latitude 31.2 north...longitude 80.5 west or about 115 miles south-southwest of Charleston South Carolina.
Charley is moving toward the north-northeast near 25 mph. This motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...Charley will be nearing the South Carolina coast later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts mainly to the east of the center. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the east of the center.
Minimum central pressure reported by an reconnaissance plane was 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 ft is expected along portions of the south and North Carolina coasts near and to the east of where the center of Charley crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet is expected in the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely along the path of Charley across portions of the eastern United States. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal south and North Carolina.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...31.2 N... 80.5 W. Movement toward...north-northeast near 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
$$
We are waiting for 8:00am EDT reports.
Wow. Scary.
Punta Gorda: CNN is reporting the sheriff has ordered 60 body bags.
Good morning, MM: How's it looking there this morning? I've prayed for you all night...
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