Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Sea Surface Temperature Maps:
https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif
(Gulf of Mexico)
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/natlanti.c.gif
(Georgia to Nova Scotia)
If the storm stays over the Gulf Stream it will have no problem strengthening a bit. I believe the water off the East Coast is cooler than average this year but the temps are warm enough to support and strengthen a hurricane.
I pretty much agree with your post...Tampa was emphasized because of its large population...because, it takes a lot more time to evac the endangered people in Hillsbourgh (sp?) and Pinellas (sp? again) Co. than in other areas. But it should have been conveyed that ANYONE in the warned area...especially if you were under mandatory evac orders...should get out. Like I said earlier, broadcast media tends to focus on "precise" landfall points rather than ranges...and this is a mistake.
The west coast of FL has the potential to have the largest storm surges of anywhere on the eastern or gulf coasts...due to the shallow continental shelf offshore. Luckily, they are not climatologicaly favored for a major hurricane hit. The last two major hurricanes to hit Tampa were 1960 and 1921. Unfortunately, today we beat climatology due to the east coast trough. For the storm surge potential alone, media should have been casting a wider net then focusing on Tampa. But, again, due to the long evac time for Tampa metro...I am not going to second guess them on that one. However, they should always point out that if you are under mandatory evac order...you should leave! Ft. Myers and Pt. Charlotte were under these orders for 29 hrs. before landfall...which is plenty of time.
The remains of the Blossom Florist Shop are scattered across the sidewalk and Marion Avenue in downtown Punta Gorda in the aftermath of Hurricane Charley's devastating path Friday afternoon.
A Royal Palm tree collapsed into this Landmark Realty office building during Hurricane Charley's path Friday afternoon through Punta Gorda.
Is that a Boston Whaler? Didnt sink!
A road on Fort Myers Beach is washed away be Hurricane Charley
Is the eye breaking up?
Agree..the supply of warm water is no problem for Charley. Wind shear, however, is a problem. So far though...still a tight circulation w/ little disorganization (for a storm that has crossed the FL peninsula)...so, I would still bet on some strengthening.
Oh my gosh....
Yea, just noticed that the eye has become more disorganized in the last few images....could just be a short term trend...the next couple of hours should clue us in. If the eye continues being very ragged...may just make landfall as a Cat 1....if we see a narrowing of the eye again...a sure sign of regained strength. Keep in mind though, that the storm is moving further away from the JAX radar...could be an artifact of that. Aircraft recon observations will help in the next few hours.
That does not remind me of pictures I have seen from Andrew and Hugo.
Yes, I know. The news on the west coast just brushed over any news on this storm. A lot of people didnt know anything about it.
I am stuck at work so I can't read thru the whole thread. Can anyone give me a sitrep on the area just north of Orlando? My brother in law and family are riding it out down there.
Based on satellite, does look like the eyewall has weakened...have to see if this trend continues over the next couple of hours.
Good night, all.
Whoa, the radar just updated...check out that last image.
Defintely looks like an eyewall weakening from JAX radar...wind shear might be finally getting to Charley.
From the maps, it was just over 31 degree C right where it ballooned into Cat 4.
It would be better if the water in question that H. Charley is over or near was all 25 C or less.
Though it is a narrow band of 31 C off GA/SC/NC, it is still extremely warm water and probably the GulfStream.
However, once North of Washington, DC, the water cools significantly (sigh).
Come morning, things will be heating up in terms of the Sun generating energy for the Storm, so this is a bad scenario for SC/NC. It would have better to hit SC/NC now when the temps are low, and the sun is about to come up -- end of the heating cycle -- rather than middle. (last projection was 8PM tomorrow, which is very bad news -- alot of heat generated by that part of the day).
Everything I have seen is that this storm will have no trouble finding water vapor to draw into it.
The earlier prediction of becoming Cat 2 when it hits land may, unfortunately, come true.
I still think prayer is the only answer.
(As well as proper preparation for a Cat 3 -- worse case scenario -- hopefully -- and hope for Cat 1 or less).
NOAA has option to view Short Range Reflect and Long Range.
When I select Savannah, GA, I get the Charleston, SC map, and I am able to select the Long Range Reflect. But I have not done that since about 12:30AM EDT.
The outer band of Hurricane Charley makes its way across downtown Orlando.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-bk-charley-timeline081304,0,4603878.story?coll=orl-home-specialbreaking
Eye has opened up on the SE side according to satellite. Just have to hope this is more than a short term trend. In any case, the warned areas of SC/NC should prepare for a Cat 2 storm.
Thanks y'all for a great intro to FR. Sorry it wasn't under better circumstances. I am off to bed...everyone have a good night...
Yowzers!!!!
Daytona reports 80% power outages
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