Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Yesterday I was talking about Isabel, but called it "Elena" -- anyway last year it hit Virginia after the ground was already saturated with much rain, knocked down many many many trees. Apparently the situation today is similar, much rain lately, ground already saturated.
Big oak trees in urban/suburban areas just keeled over because the roots were not deep due to development.
My fishing club is supposed to have a weekend on Estero Island, Ft. Myers Beach this weekend, wondering if the hotel, the Neptune Inn, which is right on the beach is wrecked or not.
My memory of Andrew is that it'll take a few days for the owners to even figure out exactly what's going on with their property. No electricity in the area, I'm sure, probably no telephones either.
Lots of structures will seem to be OK on first inspection, but later, water damage to drywall, contents, etc, can be much worse than it seems at first.
Checked with friends in Naples, they are fine, but have no electricity there for now.
Living through Andrew was an experience, up until then I was hoping for a hurricane, wanted to see what it was like. That cured me, now I worry all the way through every hurricane season. Though it's too far away to really know, looks like depression # 5 has potential to be a problem for Florida end of next week.
Charlotte Harbor is a beautiful area, hoping for the best for everyone over there.
Any ideas on why G.H.W. Bush waited?
That's cause us locals snatch their teeth out before we kill 'em and and grill 'em.
Shark steaks...yum.
Victor Rivera, an employee of Auto Zone Auto Parts store, inspects the damaged around the store after Hurricane Charley hit, in Port Charlotte, Florida August 13, 2004. Hurricane Charley slammed Florida's west coast with winds of 145 mph (233 kph) on Friday, striking farther south than expected and ripping apart mobile homes, snapping cement columns and shearing off roofs in unprepared seaside towns. REUTERS/Marc Serota
Have you been to Venice Beach? It is shark tooth central. It is impossible not to find them there. We used to do a lot of fossil hunting on the Peace River. You can find a little bit of everything there. Sharks teeth (I have a few 3 inchers from there), manatee (Dunang?) bones, horse teeth, mammoth bones, etc...
TD5 is in a similar spot Charley was. I was thinking it might go out to sea or take a more typical August track into the western GOM. Is the trough still supposed to be in place next week? I know it has been quite pesky for what seems like a solid 2 years...
I have a feeling Bush will send whatever is needed to the region. The increased importance of organizations like FEMA since 9/11 is producing much better relief efforts in my opinion.
Yeah, just noticing. Hoping for the best, though.
This storm SHOULD be weaker than Isabel was in your area.
That said, the region has gotten way too much rain recently. I wouldn't doubt some problems from wind, moreso from flooding.
The governor of Florida didn't ask him for help.
Oh, don't blame him really for the slow response...no one at the time knew how bad the damage was in South Dade Co....like I said earlier, it was many, many hours before anyone got into Homestead to report. However, he did know a Cat 4 (later upgraded to a Cat 5) had hit a populated area of S. Florida....yet, aid was extremely slow in getting to the worst hit areas.
We have learned our lesson from Andrew...I do not want to see it repeated this time.
IIRC, it was because the governor took his sweet time requesting it. For what it's worth, I do remember seeing military trucks in the area of US1 and South Miami on the morning of the storm.
It also looks like the track may have shifted more to the west, it appears to me that the movement since the eye left land is just a few degrees shy of north.
Of course I am. I didn't really think you were suggesting I look for shells on the beach during 165mph winds. :)
It was just my opinion that your comment was probably not the coolest thing to say at the time, although I also thought that jumping on you for it was uncalled for. Lets just make peace man!
Ok. But we can still look for shells. If we beat everybody else to Sanibel we'll get the best ones dude.
Believe me. I went to Sanibel a couple of times and there was a layer of shells around 2 ft deep. You wouldn't believe the collection I have. Absolutely beautiful.
I did think it was sort of neet to see that big barge that was washed ashore down here by Andrew..
I didn't see that. Where was it? Homestead? Did people loot it?
That would certainly slow things down then, wouldn't it?
Estero should be fine.
Lawton Chiles. Creep.
The lesson I learned from Andrew was more than 95% of the population would do absolutely nothing to help themselves. I went through it and although I didn't loose my house, many of my friends did. All the whining about where was the government was just that. Whining. What did they do once they got there? Yes, tent communities were setup and the military went on patrols to stop looting. Nothing that couldn't have been done in the short term by people themselves.
Thanks.
I'm sure the hotel can use our business, lots of folks are probably assuming the worst.
Looks like the trough will weaken for a while...but then re-establish itself by mid to late next week. That's why I have very preliminary concern for FL again.
You are right about the persistant trough over the East. A very winter-like pattern...extremely unseasonable for August. Global warming, you know ;)
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