Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
I'm going to eat some seashell macaroni and wake up early to see what's what...
I used to, but probably not the one you are thinking about. I ran www.nwctwx.com for about 2 years, but this was some time ago. Which site are you thinking about? The one from New Milford?
I currently run a weather site for the University of Connecticut, I created it 2 years ago during a snowstorm. :)
three days warning is enough to leave the country!
That explains it. They are hurricane magnets. It is the same reason Andrew didn't hit further north like it was supposed to. Not as many Trailer Parks on South Beach as there was in Cutler Ridge, Perine, and Homestead.
Are you at Pawley's?
In around 1962, a hurricane that hit Corpus Christi washed a Spanish galleon onshore -- the opposite of what you are saying.
A 10 to 18 foot storm surge on such a flat area is something you would not want to comtemplate. Add to the 145+ MPH winds, and there may be people missing that there bodies are no longer on land (and I hope that I am wrong on this).
World War II saw Admiral Halsey get reprimanded by Admiral Nimitz for poor performance in a Hurricane. The argument was that since he lost several destroyers and he had a bunch of meterologists on his staff, he should have been able to save his ships.
I imagine there were over 500 sailors lost -- just because I think at least two destroyers sunk and some other ships had pretty bad damage.
Yes I do. It was an astounding sight to behold. I lived on Ft. Lauderdale Beach (which ended up on AIA), but South Dade looked like an A-Bomb hit it.
Yes, I can imagine there might be some shells, OTOH, Sanibel could be a little inaccessable for awhile.
Yes I believe there is only one bridge onto Sanibel. But the storms really bring huge amounts of shells onto the beach there. It's the angle of the beach...makes it one of the best beaches in the world for shells.
Do you go to PI?
VIPIR is a bit excessive sometimes....
Probably 20 miles north of me...
Proven today, I am sure.
I agree that due to the tight wind field in Charlie's core..that intensification is likely. Most likely will become a strong Cat 1 before landfall near the NC/SC border. It has several negatives against it...strong wind shear, etc....but a few positives....tight core, warm water. That said, if it becomes a weak Cat 2 before landfall I wouldn't be that suprised...Charlie has been a suprising storm all along.
Hurricane force winds still possible over coastal Brevard and Volusia counties...
ahh, ok. I know that site as well.
I'm up between Litchfield and Torrington.
Not right away. And not on Sanibel Island which is north of Charlotte since the Gulf currents move southward.
I imagine that there will be some surprises washing up over the next few weeks.
Thanks for the Nimitz story. I thought he was smarter than that.
Also, will say that everyone on the SE Coast or Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on TD 5...even more so than Danielle. Looks to take a similar track as Charlie...and has the same positives going for it.
Political note now....Pres. Bush and Gov. Bush had better respond strongly and quickly to this disaster. It looks like they are doing so at the moment, which is a very good sign. Pres. G. H. W. Bush was rather slow on the response to Andrew...even though he still won FL in 1992...I think the slow response hurt him beyond the borders of FL. All possible aid should be brought in as quickly as possible...by military or any other means.
Beach livin'. Ain't it grand!
Funny, I found very few shark's teeth in Florida. But I found lots of them on South Carolina beaches.
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