Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
That's true, worth noting. Once you get past 150mph gusts, even stronger buildings have trouble. The eyewall of a storm like this (or andrew) is often as powerful as a significant tornado.
All the talking heads on the shows tonight kept asking over and over "Shouldn't these people have been warned earlier?" "It is a problem with the people who predict these things?" "Is it the software?" "How could this have happened?"
Somebody even asked Jeb Bush that at his late afternoon press conference.
Do you have any information on Englewood?
Oh, B.S. You've got to be joking...
I remember you saying that!
Probably not much effect (outside some gusty winds and a little rain). It will pass by all of GA within the next 6 hours.
Thanks very much for your contribution and expertise...
I was in Charleston in 89 and left 20 days before Hugo hit...and glad I did.
>>Anyone who lives on the coast *ought to know* these projections are not an exact science.
Unfortunately people who are willing to blame the weather bureau are the type who don't get this to begin with. They'll complain if the warnings are excessive, they'll complain if the warnings are insufficient, they'll complain if things don't turn out exactly as predicted, and they'll probably complain if things turn out exactly as predicted because it wasn't soon enough or often enough.
The common thread here is "they'll complain."
For people who suffered loss of life or loss of property, all I can do is feel compassion. Let them vent if it makes them feel better.
They drink a lot of moonshine still on PI...
Exactly...
Welcome aboard, nice post.
Good to see someone else with 'wx' in their name. Unfortunately, it looks like you agree with my thoughts about the possible damage in the area surrounding landfall.
Welcome! Genuine expertise from posters is always valuable, because these threads seem to attract a lot of ill-founded speculation.
Watch the rerun of Keith Olbermann, for starters.
Hey, can I ask you something?
Looking back in the #100's posts, you were dead on the money.
Fine with me.
By the way, if you find the idea of looking for shells on the beach after a storm "a little insensitive".......I had freinds who were native Floridians who actually said they hoped for hurricanes because it was exciting.
I went through the northern eye wall of Andrew, sustained winds of 165+mph. And yes, I think that talking about collecting shells at this time is a bit low.
Are you trying to make me laugh on purpose or what? I wasn't talking about looking for shells in 165 mph winds.
I was talking about looking for the shells the storm washed up AFTER it was over. Unless you think there should be some moratorium on going the beach in Florida after a hurricane out of respect for the dead or damaged property.
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