Sanibel is just off the lower left. The eye went up Charlotte Harbor (actually a big break -- Ft. Myers was spared), the big damage will be Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, and Arcadia in the upper right.
Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
One of these days we'll have to put together a hurricane list for times like this. I've learned more here then from any news source.
I remember that just as it was coming ashore this afternoon, you were discussing the fact that the barometer had fallen again.
What are you thoughts on what will happen tomorrow?
I agree!
Whatever. Have a good night.
MKM
>>Anybody seen the Gray Man yet?<<
Who, or what is the Gray Man?
It is hard for me to think that people take these storms so lightly or assume that they will not be affected by them. Given the inability to precisely predict their motions I would think that people in their potential track would take precautions and be prepared. I don't know where this thing is going tomorrow but you can darn well believe I am preparing for it NOW. I have been through several including Hugo and Fran ( the really strong ones in recent years ) and I don't take them lightly. My brother, who lives directly across the street from me, is an idiot of the "I'll bitch about it when it gets here" attitude/mentality. I can't believe that we share the same genes.
That's because the ones I have to evacuate for HIT you, after they hit my relatives in Florence. ;-)
Sanibel is just off the lower left. The eye went up Charlotte Harbor (actually a big break -- Ft. Myers was spared), the big damage will be Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, and Arcadia in the upper right.
I went through the northern eye wall of Andrew, sustained winds of 165+mph. And yes, I think that talking about collecting shells at this time is a bit low.
Well, the press has already started. By tomorrow they should be in full shirll whining mode.
And you know why? Because the people who are reporting these storms have never SEEN a storm like Andrew; look at them.....they're all young. They are in for a rude awakening tomorrow at dawn.
Here were the evac orders:
http://www.charlottecountyfl.com/Emergency/bulletins.asp
Date: Thursday, August 12, 2004 Time: 4:19:31 PM
Mandatory Evacuation of Barrier Islands
CHARLOTTE COUNTY SCHOOLS TO CLOSE FRIDAY. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF BARRIER ISLANDS, RV PARKS, AND MOBILE HOME COMMUNITIES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY ORDERED AT 3 P.M. TODAY.
Date: Thursday, August 12, 2004 Time: 8:12:01 PM
Low Lying Areas Strongly Urged to Evacuate
Residents in the following areas are strongly urged to consider evacuating their homes by daylight Friday in advance of Hurricane Charley. The strengthening storm is now forecast to produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet above normal tide levels. Those areas of Charlotte County below 8 foot elevation and subject to the worst flooding threat include: EAST PUNTA GORDA AND SOLONA DOWNTOWN PUNTA GORDA PUNTA GORDA’S HISTORIC DISTRICT RIVERSIDE DRIVE, PUNTA GORDA THE EDGEWATER CORRIDOR, PORT CHARLOTTE BAYSHORE ROAD, MELBOURNE STREET & HARBORVIEW ROAD, CHARLOTTE HARBOR BURNT STORE ROAD, PUNTA GORDA PIRATE HARBOR, PUNTA GORDA EL JOBEAN AND THE CAPE HAZE AREA IN WESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY Evacuation is MANDATORY for Charlotte County’s barrier islands and for anyone in an RV or mobile home.
Only if they are wood frame. I know. I was living right next to Country Walk/Tamiami Airport when Andrew hit. My house was concrete block and had very little damage.
Lots of local reports Scroll down to the long list of links.
Going to call it a night here. Only nine hours sleep in just about 3 days. Heads up! More storms on the way.
Much of the problem is Media and local EOC filtering of NHC info; NHC constantly fills their products with cautions about track error, etc....but I really notice a lot of local media and EOC types focusing confidently on specific effects of a specific forecast track.
Looks like it's re-forming, doesn't it?
exactly. Fran sucked. Isabell sucked too. Stay out to sea Charlie! Don't come back.
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