Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Where is he? I'm in Longwood/Altamonte Springs area.
0000Z forecast track. Looks like Jacksonville-St. Augustine or maybe Daytona Beach area in less than 12 hours, then out to sea, and Myrtle Beach by tomorrow afternoon. Hoo boy.
Call this one the I-4 Special.
}:-)4
LOL, it was comical, the man never eats late at night!
The Eye on 4 Storm...of 04'
My power just flickered. I'm in Winter Springs.
Working my way up the thread and listening to live Fort Myers NBC webcast. Lady from Lehigh calls in to say she has trees down in her yard but no power. When told it might be five days before it is restored, she is distraught and asks what will happen to her food in the fridge and freezer. The newsbabe says it probably will go bad. She gets more upset and asks, in a pleading voice, what she should she do because she can't afford more food. The newsbabe tells her to call the power company and maybe it can give her priority for power. A few minutes after the call ends, the newsbabe reminds folks about the Red Cross.
Some folks just don't understand when you live in hurricane and tornado country, you need to take precautions yourself. But the "government will take care of you mentality" has really gotten entrenched and folks don't know how to survive on your own.
(BTW, I live in Lea County, but in NM, and when I hear statements like "the Lee County Sheriff's Office ..." I jump to alert. )
He's in between Kissimmee and st cloud. They got it pretty good.
There are those who think God scripted everything to include my writing of these words on this page. (The Script Writer)
There are those who think God has blind spots and many things He deals with after the fact. (The Reacter)
There are those who think He knows everything and, therefore, has no blind spots, but is not culpable because "knowing" is not the same as "causing." (The Aware)
There are those who have no God at all (The Empty Universe), or a host of them (The Variety Pack.)
In any case, you takes your picks and you gets the God you chooses.
Almost at the Orange County - Osceola County border: Well inside the built up tourist area east of Disney, heading for International Drive and (maybe) west of downtown.
Still west and south of the Orlando Airport.
The eye is definitely less defined than an hour ago, but the leading edge of storm clouds and the band of wind is already well over the Atlantic coast, so it can begin picking up energy again from the east.
Well, being an expert mother, I think I was correct when I told my sons that I thought it would head up and across Florida and they should have headed for home last night.
Now, I just have to pray that they make it through so I can say "I told you so".
I hope ya'll realize that I am so sick with worry I have to be a bit silly.
Radar from Orlando shows strong band of storm out at sea that may loop around to the South and hit West Palm Beach (Miami) later tonight.
These storms might pick up strength being over water, but the NWS may be able to predict better what they will do -- intensify or die out with the heat of the day gone.
There is a NWS radar link for Orlando that I think is useful:
National Weather Service Radar Melbourne Florida
The radar may not help with Tornados, but at least by the orange color for strong storms, people might realize there may be a threat in their area.
lol, I know...
#1985
You may well get it worse than me being on the east side. I'm 2 miles west of I-4.
Hey, does anyone know if this thing can go out to sea again and reform?
There's going to be some nice golf courses torn up down there at the county line.
eye wall just went past the Orlando airport. picking up speed now it seems as it blows right up I4. a trough is going to pick it up and accelerate it, that will make it a shorter duration event for the Carolinas.
Pray...and have a glass of wine or two.
Just look at the size of it. It's going to pass right over Florida and then pick up steam. You see the clouds near the top right of the picture they just might add more punch to it or spawn the son of Charley.
Look at it on the jave loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-alb-loop.html
I'm nearby in Altamonte. Here it comes!
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