Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
it looks like it will hit orlando, then track right down I4 to Daytona. very bad, that's a very populated corridor I believe.
Correction: east of GA
Post #1908 shows projected path.
Though Savannah is not in the heart of the projected path, this is based on Math Models.
I recently learned that there was a lot of error in this until recently because of how they computations.
Don't base your life on a Math Model.
Charley went from Cat 2 to Cat 4 like sh*t through a Goose, and that should be a warning to anyone that is potentially on its path.
The model in 1908 is saying winds >73 MPH, but it does not say how much. Also, even out in the Atlantic, this storm could spawn 20 to 50 tornados in the Savannah area (potentially). I remember one Hurricane that did this, but I can't remember.
The model on #1908 shows Savannah on the edge, but that is only if they are correct in their predictions.
I have learned the hard way (30 years of working on computers and a fairly high IQ of 130) that God is the only one I put my trust in.
It is on our Money for a good reason.
A lot of blood has been spilled for us to be free and allowed to put that slogan on our money.
Jeb and Columba, during the heat of the 2000 election, left Florida to go pray about the election in Columba's home country of Mexico. They made a special petition of God about the election of Jeb's brother George W.
So I would follow Jeb and what he did.
Any computer can be hit by a BETA particle and that can ruin your whole day.
So I would not bet on supercomputers to save your rear end.
Although I live in Raleigh, I've got a place in Atlantic Beach, NC.... Debating on whether to drive the three hours to try to batten down the hatches.
The siding is vinyl siding, so plywood is out of the question....
Question: Are sandbags worth it ?(the cottage is on pilings/stilts; only a garage is on the ground level.
Thoughts and prayers to everyone in it's path.
Assistance line #239-656-2300
If you live in the area and need assistance - Ft. Myers IIRC - they gave this number to a resident whose food is going to spoil in the fridge...
Orlando to Daytona is bumper to bumper...on race day...
is it right on the coastline? from the track that has been shown so far, that looks like a very vulnerable area, but the flip side is that it should be a CAT 1 by then.
Eye is now into Osceola County, right south of Intercession City....
Headed for I-4 at Hwy 192, Disney World, International Drive, and Universal Studios.
And everything else on the west side of Orlando!
I wouldn't think so. Maybe just for the garage.
It really depends on what this thing does after it crosses FL. It's a very fast mover and they are saying it's going to pick up speed.
That's exactly the track it's taking, but that's the eye. Poinciana is getting mauled, you can be sure.
866GETINFO
Phone number for Red Cross available to anyone needing basic services...etc.
Maybe next time they will listen to their mother.
Howlin' and all, Say a prayer for my four J's (Josh, Jenn, Jacob, and Jandi).
If it is going to regain strength, it will start picking up water from the Atlantic pretty soon: But it's also after dark, so the rising air will be a bit cooler than mid-afternoon.
Is Clermont in harm's way?
No - it's going east of there.
Where's the nearest radar url for Central Florida?
You're right - We can "see" the eye clearly on the radar, but the wind wall (around the eye) is equally, if not more damaging, and more likely to carry tornadoes.
Just because the eye misses a city, that doesn't mean the city (or little town) didn't pick up a LOT of damage.
Good, thx...
The Melbourne radar shows the t-storm band at the very top suddenly getting blown to the east. Is that Mr. Charles interacting with the trough? Will we see a more easterly shift soon?
I bet
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