Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
LOL, Mrs. CD just called me to say she was ducking out of work early to pick up some batteries.
If, as they're currently expecting (last I heard) it crosses Florida and hits the Atlantic at Daytona, it could strengthen in the Atlantic and turn back toward the Carolinas as a WORSE storm.
It will weaken if it stays over land, but not if it hits the ocean again.
I told them to head to the ole home place last night (here in Georgia).
Where you at? I live in Winter Springs. Anybody have the updated storm track yet?
And he said during his report that he was hit by glass shrapnel earlier!
Some mules gotta be smacked with a 2x4 three or four times before they get the message.
COW!.
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ANOTHER COW!
I think that was the same one.
And the Gulf Stream is awful damn warm too...
Not to jink my neighbors in SW Florida but Andrew intensified when it hit here.
I know. The water is like soup here - with seaweed.
I live where the shelf is high, when my girlfriend came to visit me I took her to the beach.
She said you don't live near a beach, you live near a swamp.
nope..didnt miss that at all....however it will be back over water for only a few hours and will not have time to increase back to anywhere near this level...it will also be experiencing upper level shear at that point which will also limit strenthening....official nhc forecast has relandfall at 65kt winds.....
I'm in Daytona Beach. It is thundering VERY loudly out of the south, the winds are picking up with the rain,and we are under a tornado watch until 5pm.
This is the FIRST band. "It's gonna be a bumpy nite !!"
Port Charl. is really a bad place to run from a Hurricane surge in the harbor/bay...
Good point, especially where this thing is landing and the narrow channels.
Huh?
When I visited a friend in Pascagoula, Mississippi (on the MS coast) a few years ago, he took me on a drive and showed me an empty lot overlooking the beach. There had been a big three-story house there before Camille came in. After Camille passed through, all that was left on the lot was a bare concrete slab foundation, which was still there the day I saw it, about ten bricks left of what used to be the fireplace, and the bottom two steps of the concrete front stairs.
It's about what I'd expect to have been left after a nearby nuclear strike.
Yeah we were without power for a week and it took us that long to clear the driveway so we could get drive out on the road. We lived in a very wooded area and I remember being afraid the trees would fall on our house--only months old at that point. The eye for Gloria tracked right over our house.
I talk about hurricanes with the 'natives' out here in the Bay Area and they just glaze over. No frame of reference.
Disney is closed.
Great, (/sarcasm) our condo is in that row of high-rises at Daytona Beach Shores, so if it crosses over top of you .....
Funny, the only people on the Hurricane Net are Daytona Beach Red Cross.
Still no reports from the west coast of Florida.
Yeah, it looks that way and that's good news. It's just unnerving and scary not hearing from anyone down there. We'll feel better once we hear from them.
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