Posted on 08/09/2004 8:25:06 AM PDT by Liz
Business Council gathering is told Bush will `need a miracle'
POINT CLEAR - Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.
" Kerry would win very handily," said Sabato, 52, a frequent guest of network television news shows and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Sabato, speaking at the BCA's governmental affairs conference at the Grand Hotel Marriott Resort here, said the growing unpopularity of the Iraq war is the biggest factor hurting Bush's re-election chances.
"He really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman," Sabato said in an interview after his speech. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948.
He said that if Bush hadn't ordered the U.S. invasion of Iraq last year, he likely would be leading in 45 states and heading toward a landslide victory.
" He bet his presidency on Iraq. But he's this close to losing the bet," said Sabato, holding a finger and thumb about an inch apart.
He said polls show support for the Iraq war has dropped from about 70 percent of Americans to about 45 percent or less.
Sabato said Bush also must deal with a mediocre economy and a sour mood among voters that sees the economic glass as half empty, not half full.
Democratic Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, who joined dozens of legislators listening to Sabato's speech, said his national perspective offered an interesting contrast to the view from Alabama, which tends to vote heavily Republican for president.
"Apparently, Kerry is doing a lot better in a lot of areas in the country," Baxley said.
BCA President Billy Canary said he invited Sabato to speak because of his reputation for impartial and informed opinions. "He's the best in the country to give a national overview politically," Canary said.
Sabato said Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is a liberal in the spirit of U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. But Sabato said that likely will matter little before Nov. 2, since this election will mainly be a referendum on Bush and whether he deserves another four years in office.
Sabato called Kerry a cross between a funeral director and Lurch, the stiff butler on the old TV comedy "The Addams Family."
"Only in a year like this could John Kerry be elected. He can't connect with people. He's way to the left of the American mainstream," Sabato said.
"We're right on the verge of electing someone who I believe will be the most liberal president in American history, at least on social and cultural issues."
Sabato said Bush's best chance to win is to focus on "hot-button social issues" and try to paint Kerry as too liberal on issues such as gay marriage, gun control, abortion and the death penalty.
Sabato said Bush's father used such "wedge issues" to beat Dukakis in the 1988 presidential election. But that was a time of peace and prosperity, Sabato said. "Now you've got war and an economy that is rocky."
Bush in 2000 won 271 electoral votes to Democrat Al Gore's 267. The 2000 census, reflecting population shifts, raised the number of electoral votes in the states Bush won to 278. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Bush's problem, Sabato said, is that there are fewer states he can hope to take from the Democrats' win column from 2000 than states Kerry can hope to take from Bush's win column that year.
Bush's best chances may be in Iowa, with seven electoral votes, and Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes. Gore won both states by less than 1 percent over Bush. But Kerry now leads polls in both states by about 3 to 5 percentage points.
Sabato said Bush, despite early hopes, has little chance now of taking Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania from the Democrats' side.
Sabato said Kerry's best chance of raiding Bush's 2000 win column is in New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes. Bush won by 7,000 votes over Gore in 2000, but Kerry leads handily in the polls now.
Sabato also said:
West Virginia, with its five electoral votes, is leaning for Kerry. Bush won West Virginia by a margin of 6.3 percent over Gore.
Florida, with its 27 electoral votes, is leaning for Kerry. Bush won the state by a margin of 537 votes over Gore.
Kerry has about a 50-50 chance of winning either Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, or Missouri, with 11 electoral votes. Bush won both states by margins of more than 3 percent in 2000.
Kerry might win Arkansas, with its six electoral votes. Bush won the state by 5.45 percent in 2000, but Sabato said former President Bill Clinton, an Arkansas native, likely will stump there for Kerry. Gore didn't seek Clinton's help there in 2000.
Sadir just said he will fight to death. IOW he said "please kill me now".
I would not count the Swiftvets out either.
Because he thought we'd go in, find slam-dunk WMD stockpiles, he'd be cheered from coast-to-coast, and win in a landslide. That's consistent with the conspiracy theory you mentioned. One part of the plan fell apart, but it's a logical plan politically.
DJ,
This is clearly Bush's race to lose... Kerry and the Dems made the biggest mistake they could have by attempting to define Kerry by his Military Record....4 Months in Vietname and then years back home being a dupe for the KGB to undermine the war is not a record that one should be trying to build a campaign around.
Had Kerry stuck with domestic issues, he might have had a chance... but by trying to build a campaign around his 4 months.. he shot himself in the foot. He has told so many lies about his 4 months there, over the last 40 years and all the known lies and seditious actions he engaged in after returning.. that that should be the LAST thing he would want to be bringing attention to.
Bush owns the states he held in 2000 for the most part, and Kerry does not own the states that Bush lost in 2000. Florida is solidly Bush, no BS lawsuits there.. PA is trending back to Bush, Ohio is going Bush, I suspect Iowa will start to, if they haven't already started to trend Bush as well... I honestly don't see WV going Kerry, even thoug there is talk that the state is in Play... WV is a state full of basically "southern democrats".. they aren't going to change leadership 1/2 through the game for no reason.
For Kerry to win, he has to lock up everything Bush lost in 2000 and get one more state, and I just don't see it happening... short of some MAJOR unforseen issue.
The trending appears best I can tell is that Bush is gaining or expanding in almost all "in play" states... the convention is coming up, more arrests and details of terror attacks showing dems for the cowards and manipulators that they are...
Kerry's down to less than a point in Wisconsin after being up more than 6 not long ago... Most people still aren't paying much attention... and the Reps still haven't had their convention. I just don't see Kerry pulling it out.. he's peaked.. he went for the "HATE BUSH" vote, and that's all he has, and all he will have... and that is not going to win the election.
I know there is a lot of time until 11/02/04. But we are in T minus what? 85 days or so until the election, and every indication is that the Dems are min major trouble... they are solidifying their bases in the liberal states like Cali and NY etc.. but are falling nearly everywhere else.
5 to 6 point lead in PA, down to 1 point in a month according to Rasmussen... Wisconsin down to less than 1 point.... etc etc etc.. any one of these states go Bush, and its over for Kerry, and they know it. What I find amusing is that even though at least 3 states have a less than 1 point lead for kerry in mid atlantic right now, most tracking polls are still classifying them as "Kerry Lean" rather that put them in the tossup category.
I honestly believe its a 4-5 points at least for Bush by November if not more... no Nixon or Reagon 49 out of 50 states.. but nowhere close when the end is said and done.
How so for the cubicle bound?
They are just hoping that if they repeat it enough times it just may come true. It's their Mantra, dictated by "mc Awful".
And that is a common theme with people GWB beats... they go insane: Ma Richards, McCain, Gore, Lieberman ( doesn't know if he is Republican or democrat), and almost all liberals.
Even if we found WMD's stacked neatly with a bow on top, the media would say "not WMD enough."
Nothing would EVER satisfy the left because THEY will not get the brownie points.
Yeah, it wasn't long ago Larry was saying the opposite. What a goober! I don't care what he thinks or says, there's no way Kerry is winning handily. He could squeak out a victory, but he's not exactly in a strong position right now.
And I really think these political analysts are underestimating the network Bush/Cheney has in place.
If we had David Kay and the rest (and the WH) saying we had found WMDs, it would be enough.
a traditional stockpile would be good.
but this nuclear program stuff would require some actual thinking to understand - how Libya was the lynchpin for the program, and Saddam was part of the effort; scientists, money, yellowcake from Niger, etc. With the media and the sheeple, it will go right over their heads, it won't budge public opinion on the "no WMD" thing at all.
I'm getting the biggest kick out of watching these DemocRAT operatives being interviewed all over TV regarding the Swift-Boat Vet subject.
According to them, their biggest fear is that "George Bush is going to be damaged" by what these Swift-Boat Vets are saying about Kerry.
I just videotaped a segment on Fox where the guests were Larry Sabato and some DemocRAT spin-meister ditz (I'd have to re-wind the tape to get her name).
Larry said, "Someone is lying. It is the responsibility of serious minded, objective journalists to dig up the truth of this matter. Politics is a tough, rough and tumble business, but it has to be that way. The voters have a right to know who is lying, and the liar(s) should pay the price."
The DemocRAT "consultant" voiced her great concern for how "George Bush" would be damaged if that occurred.
That is just how stupid they think we all are.
But ----- it isn\t as if they don't have lots of evidence to show that at least 1/2 of the country is just THAT stupid.
I know he predicted a Democratic takeover of the Senate in 2002...
Larry? I think not. If the election were held today, Bush wins, maybe 6-7%, maybe more. It's not being held, today, which is a pity. By Nov, it won't even be that close. Bush by 10%.
It's always a referendum on the sitting president.
I agree with his description of Kerry, physically and politically, but I disagree about Lurch winning the election, even if it were held now. Many moderate and even more Conservative Dems are going to cross-over, and vote for W. The liberal-demokkkRATs are hopelessly drinking Klintoon-Kool-Aid® behind the shed, and they are lost forever.
What worries me is the number of Conservatives and GOPers who are going to sit this one out, for whatever reason. The alternative to Bush-Cheney is chilling, and too terrible to contemplate. Brrrrrrrrrr...
I could be wrong, but in 2004, I think Sabato was something like 2 for 6 in the key battleground states. Anyone have info on this? I think he was WAAAAAYYY off---and always in the direction of the Dem.
Not that I agree with his analysis, but he is highly respected in the world of political science. I was a poli sci major and I read a few of his books.
"The alternative to Bush-Cheney is chilling, and too terrible to contemplate."
I disagree. While Kerry will attempt to move us towards some sort of Franco-socialism, we must remember that the President does not enjoy the Constitutional rights that the Congress does. Sadly, the American people have fallen victim to overzealous judges and executives, but remember that the Congress must approve international treaties, spending bills, etc... while it retains authority to bring and try impeachments against the President AND USSC judges.
it would be fun to research what the pundits were saying when Dukakis had a 20% lead ...
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very good.
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