Posted on 08/06/2004 5:30:25 AM PDT by RWR8189
32,000 jobs were created in July. The unemployment rate down at 5.5%
Details to come...
ouch
You sound just like Tim Russert on the Today Show. LOL!
The best indication of a bad economy is the number of those you know out of work. I live in a middle-class neighborhood of a rust-bucket state. I don't know anybody out of work. So unless these numbers herarld a huge unemployment increase in September, I wouldn't panic.
DNC on suicide watch?
Last month was 78,000. Its already two months in a row. and gas prices which caused some of the decline in growth of jobs are now back at the highest level ever, suggesting August is going to be the pits as well. During the Spring Bush was getting 250,000-350,000 new jobs a month for three or four months in a row. That was good news. This is not.
Bad news. Bush loses big.
This is the rate where those who choose to remain unemployed barracade themselves to defend against prospective employers!
If you read how the "Jobs Created Report" is baked, it is not 100% scientific and subject to some special sauce in either direction.
That said, THE BOND MARKET is going to take this report very seriously, and interest rates should decline today....however, that decline comes in the face of a Federal Reserve determined to raise rates another quarter point next Tuesday.
The conflict between a Fed moving higher, higher oil prices, and job creation stagnating is not good. Small, small shades of 1978-80.
We could muddle along with a good economy for the majority of those who have jobs, or head into a recession, or go the stagflation route. I support GW in a big way, but the roaring economic comeback doesn't appear to be in the cards right now.
Ping other FReepers to this. BTTT
Vote in the Squawk Back Poll
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.asp
Total Votes: 1563
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Jobs
57%
Oil
43%
Votes tallied every 60 seconds.
Yes, don't belittle me unless you know what you're talking about.
I haven't read the report yet, but its likely there were more "discouraged" workers and this made the labor pool smaller, making the unemployment rate move fractionally down.
When you're adding jobs like gangbusters, it would entice workers who stopped looking for work to get back in the labor market, and since the labor market would be larger, the UE rate could edge higher when we have higher rates of job creation. This happened in April IIRC.
why is the unemployment rate so low ? there is something flawed in one or the other ... I think people have been saying this for a while ...
The UE Rate is calculated based on the "Household" Survey, which asks individual households if people in them have jobs, which is then compared to the labor pool (people working plus people that are actively seeking work) to determine the UE rate. The "New Jobs Created" data is based on the "Establishment" Survey, which asks businesses how many people it employs, as compared to the previous month. The self-employed, small businesses and new start-ups will never be caught by the "Establishment" Survey, only in the "Household" Survey. IMO, the fact that so few "new" jobs are appearing in the "Esatblishment" Survey may mean that the economy is strong enough to support new business formation at a rate greater than that expected by the so-called experts.
July UE numbers are the same in 1996 and 2004.
Well, since I don't like Tim Russert I'll have to consider that an insult to my honor and must insist that we meet at high noon in the town square to settle this disagreement. I like backgammon....best two out of three??
Welcome to FR.
You are correct.
We are STILL CREATING jobs, just at a lower creation rate. If we saw a # like -32,000, that would be of concern.
Also, what about cyclic factors? July is a vacation month. So is August. I, personally do not expect to see big gains in August. However, the key #'s to look at are the September figures.
The October figures will be out a few days too late to make any difference in the election. September is the Key.
In any event, gains are gains.
I agree...
What is the most significant and direct source of this domestic problem? Something that the economic "experts" never talk about:
Illegal Immigration.
One argument about the unemployment rate is that it doesn't reflect those who have "ceased looking" for a job.
During the period in which they receive unemployment checks they are required to file job applications which keeps their numbers in the ue rate.
If the new welfare law requires job applications, then that would also keep that group in the ue rate, too.
It would tend to somewhat blunt the argument that there are those who out of frustration quit looking and then cease to show up in the ue rate.
Thank goodness Greenspan raised interest rates to cool off the roaring economy.
Don't forget that the guy's brother who the girl knows that the cousin is dating and some guy knows, has a grandmother that has to eat cat food because her perscription drugs cost to much!
I am with you, I live in a middle class neighborhood in central CT, and anyone who wants a job can get one. All my neighbors have jobs, and some of the wives stay home. In fact, when I drive around, it seems like things are going well, alot of traffic, alot of business going on. That being said, perception is reality, and if the TV and the Rats are screaming the end is near because of this very poor number.....then I do worry about the election.
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