Gallup: Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce (W 50%, Kerry 46%)

Gallup ^ | 8/1/04

[ambrose]

SOURCE:	Gallup Poll News Service
CONTACT INFORMATION:	Media Relations 1-202-715-3030 Subscriber Relations 1-888-274-5447 World Headquarters 901 F Street Washington, DC 20004

August 01, 2004 Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce Bush slightly ahead among likely voters, Kerry among registered voters by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted on Friday and Saturday following the Democratic Convention in Boston, finds that the presidential race remains close, with President George W. Bush receiving 50% support among likely voters, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 47%. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry leads 50% to 47%.

Compared with the last CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey conducted before the convention (July 19-21), this post-convention poll shows that among likely voters, Kerry's support is actually two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is three points higher. Among registered voters, Kerry's support in the current poll is one point higher than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is also higher, by two points (the percentage of undecideds dropped in both groups).

For neither group of voters does the slight change in voter preferences, compared with a poll conducted shortly before the convention, favor Kerry. All of these changes are within the margin of error, meaning that we cannot be 95% certain that Bush gained on Kerry after the convention. However, clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry.

Presidential Contest Pre- and Post-Democratic National Convention
	Kerry- Edwards

[ambrose]

Gallup has been polling for over 60 years. This is THE poll used by pundits and polisci historians for mapping out electoral trends.

[Normal4me]

"Could be, but that "Reporting for Duty" was pretty effin stupid..

The Bunny suit wasn't a real stroke of brilliance either. :-) I can't even imagine what the next few months hold. I may have to go dig up the old threads from the last conventions. LOL

[Stentor]

Could be, but that "Reporting for Duty" was pretty effin stupid..

Kerry is a terminal dweeb.

[gitmo]

In the three-way race, Kerry lost a point among likely voters after the convention, and he neither gained nor lost among registered voters. Bush gained four points both among likely voters and among registered voters. To the extent that there is any bounce in this three-candidate ballot, it is for Bush rather than Kerry.

They will probably determine Kerry's loss was due to the balloon failure.

[hoosiermama]

Stopping by Wendy's for a photo shoot and haveing expesive gourmet food waiting in the bus.....is their two Americas in action.

[Paladin2]

We've seen this previously.

When the public is bombarded daily by JF'nK's bombast and visage, his ratings go down.

When he is safely tucked away on vacation and the other 'Rats are attacking W, JF'nK's ratings go up.

He should change is name to Any Buddybutt Bush.

[nopardons]

How desperate is that?

This is like counting EMPTY/UNMARKED butterfly ballots as a vote for Gore.This is worse than trying to count hanging chads.

[Dog]

They had gourmet food in the bus.....your kidding me?

[Homer_J_Simpson]

Better not tell the folks at DU about this one. They're still trying to come to grips with the CNN poll. Here's a sampling.

What is with alot of you. You start rambling off with negative because a poll done by hack news network like CNN says Kerry had NO bounce? This is the same outfit that said Kerry fell 14 points behind shrub in NC after selecting Edwards, while mind you, everyone else had shown he increased his lead.

It really is a drag at times being in the same party with a bunch of whining fools!

A newbie posted these same words earlier and some jumped on him because a newbie errr...shouldn't say these types of things. How about a guy who's been around for 3 years, can he? The newbies minor mistake in his post was to make it sound like all DUers are whiners... I don't think he meant that. But I do agree with the gist and meaning of his post that indeed there are some whiny chicken littles here at DU.

It really is a drag at times being in the same party with a bunch of whining fools!

Are you open to suggestions?

[Paladin2]

change "is" to 'is or his, as you prefer.

[deport]

Speaking of polls and as if you didn't know..........

New York Times polls journalists

Do those so-called liberal journalists really want John Kerry to defeat President Bush?It depends where they work and how you ask, according to an unscientific survey the New York Times conducted during a press party at the Democratic convention.

When 153 journalists were asked anonymously who would be a better president, those from outside the Beltway picked Kerry 3-1, and the ones from Washington favored him 12-1. -- NEW YORK TIMES

[Stentor]

gourmet food waiting in the bus

You're right. It says something about them that they can't wait a couple of hours to leave the "little people" behind.

[cardinal4]

I forgot about the bunny suit!

[Dog]

No bias there.....nope .....nada.

[Fenris6]

Anyone know how pollsters determine "likely" voters vs registered?

[j_tull]

Kerry is a terminal dweeb.

We use DWE, Dick with Ears.

[Piranha]

Shrinkage!!

[hoosiermama]

There's a thread somewhere....a freeper actually called one of the restaurants (the Diner I think)....IIRC 19 meals at $200......Now I've had a $200 dinner before...and 19 divided into $200 is just a little over $10....The way I read it and from the list of dishes....I'd say the meals cost $200 each.....(Someone also mention TerRACEuh didn't know what CHili was....but that may have been supposition.)

I'll see if I can find the threads.

[traumer]

Perhaps you missed it: Shrimp Vindaloo - Now served at Wendy's...

[traumer]

here is the thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1182908/posts