Gallup: Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce (W 50%, Kerry 46%)

Gallup ^ | 8/1/04

[ambrose]

SOURCE:	Gallup Poll News Service
CONTACT INFORMATION:	Media Relations 1-202-715-3030 Subscriber Relations 1-888-274-5447 World Headquarters 901 F Street Washington, DC 20004

August 01, 2004 Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce Bush slightly ahead among likely voters, Kerry among registered voters by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted on Friday and Saturday following the Democratic Convention in Boston, finds that the presidential race remains close, with President George W. Bush receiving 50% support among likely voters, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 47%. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry leads 50% to 47%.

Compared with the last CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey conducted before the convention (July 19-21), this post-convention poll shows that among likely voters, Kerry's support is actually two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is three points higher. Among registered voters, Kerry's support in the current poll is one point higher than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is also higher, by two points (the percentage of undecideds dropped in both groups).

For neither group of voters does the slight change in voter preferences, compared with a poll conducted shortly before the convention, favor Kerry. All of these changes are within the margin of error, meaning that we cannot be 95% certain that Bush gained on Kerry after the convention. However, clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry.

Presidential Contest Pre- and Post-Democratic National Convention
	Kerry- Edwards

[counterpunch]

 
 
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[Dog]

They announced they would poll Sunday also to see why people didn't give Kerry a bounce.....I kid you not.

[ambrose]

They will keep polling and polling until Kerry is ahead.. even if they have to toss in some push poll questions to do it.

Like Gore in Florida... Keep counting, recounting and recounting and recounting...

[EggsAckley]

LOL!!!

[phxaz]

w = win
k = strike out

[mystery-ak]

I don't understand why they bothered to release this....they'll keep polling until they get numbers they like....Sunday, we know where this is going!

[crz]

And the GOP convention has not happened yet. This should get good. I suspect the drop to come into effect for Kerry real soon.

[Dog]

Here is the quote..

Gallup representatives told USA Today that they plan to lengthen the survey through Sunday to determine why Kerry lost ground during the convention. According to Gallup, "an analysis of convention bounces since 1950 shows that on average, among registered voters, the Democratic candidate received approximately a seven-point increase in support following the convention."

After Democratic conventions, the Republican candidate normally loses about five percentage points, Gallup said.

[Normal4me]

Musta been his hamster sucking story that turned people off.

[EggsAckley]

Bless their little hearts! If Libs are ONE thing, they're consistent. Consistently ridiculous, that is!

[RightthinkinAmerican]

I hadn't thought of that! He wasn't rescuing it, she walked in unexpectedly and caught him molesting it.

[traumer]

"Come on, guys, lets move it. Jesus! We need more balloons. I want all balloons to go, goddammit..... What's happening balloons? There's not enough coming down! All balloons, what the hell! There's nothing falling!
What the fuck are you guys doing up there? We want more balloons coming down, more balloons... "

Make sure to cast your baloon ! :o)

[cardinal4]

Musta been his hamster sucking story that turned people off.

Could be, but that "Reporting for Duty" was pretty effin stupid..

[ambrose]

Gallup must be worried that USA Today and CNN will fire them and hire Newsweak's pollster instead.

[ambrose]

Actually, I am reminded of the end of Trading Places, when the Dukes are screaming "turn those machines back on!!!!"

[Dog]

Have you ever heard of a major polling outfit say they would add a day when they didn't like the poll results.......amazing.

[WildWeasel]

If other polls substantiate Gallup's numbers , this will be an absolute disaster for Kerry and his campaign.

I'm so sad. Hahaha

[Xcoastie]

Kerry will need to use the same hamster rescue technique to save his numbers over the next couple months. But I don't even think mouth-to-mouth can resuscitate his dying campaign.

[Xcoastie]

Kerry will need to use the same hamster rescue technique to save his numbers over the next couple months. But I don't even think mouth-to-mouth can resuscitate his dying campaign.