Bush re-election below 50% on TradeSports.com for first time

TradeSports.com ^ | 7/24/2004 | TradeSports.com

[Grover_Cleveland]

As of the time of posting, the electronic market of tradesports.com predicts for the first time that President Bush will NOT be re-elected.

See the following links:

Here

Here -- click on the "politics" link on the left

Disclaimer: this is a live market and prices may have changed by the time you look at these links.

[Chesterbelloc]

...markets, where money is at stake, are better predictors of the current state of affairs...

Last week I was thinking of buying some Kerry shares because I thought they would make a short term run up in price. And just as you stated, it would have had nothing to do with who I thought was going to win in November, but what I thought would happen in the very short term because of the Democrat convention.

After the final debate between Bush/Kerry, I'd bet that these futures-type markets are pretty acurate about the final election outcome. Until then I'd take them with a prety large grain of salt.

[goldstategop]

We will have to wait til mid-October to get an accurate look at how the election will really turn out. There are a lot of events between now and then that we can account for in which it can go either way. Right now, at this moment in time, there is no doubt Kerry would win. Then again bets in the summer generally have little bearing on what happens in the fall. Keep in mind that every poll in California last year predicted a Cruz Bustamante win right up til October. They turned out be wrong. The lesson is even the markets are not infallible. Tradesports may be right that Bush could lose but its not a prophecy. It will only become one if people assume the campaign's already over.

[COEXERJ145]

Hermann1967 has suffered a severe lightning strike. The other trolls should take note of this.

[EGPWS]

Remember, if Kerry wins, its will only be the beginning of the Democrats' problems.

Your statement is enticing me to change my vote.

However, my conviction won't allow me to take such action! ; )

[datura]

For those of us who call this place home, we're all addicted to politics. The average citizen isn't - they're still in their own little worlds, asleep if you will.

The Rat convention won't wake them up, nor will ours. But untill Kerry is THE OFFICIAL NOMINEE rather than just the presumed one, our side is saving its' ammo. There is plenty of dirt to sink Kerry - quickly. There's no point in doing so - yet.

Patience. This will become apparent in September.

[maxter]

"I'm just *VERY* concerned at the polling. Bush should be up by a large margin"

Don't you think his numbers might be due somewhat to the constant Bush bashing over the last 18 months? Voters will be tuning in soon to start getting informed. Be patient a little longer.

[StriperSniper]

I can hide my Gatling gun under that skirt.

Let me know if you need a hand reloading. ;-)

[arasina]

ROFL! oooh!

[labard1]

"the country is much much more liberal today than in 1988."

I don't know about you, but I still remember 1988. The Dims controlled the House, the Senate, a majority of state houses and a majority of governorships. We didn't have Fox News or the internet. Don't tell me the country is more liberal today.

If you say that the so-called "Main Stream Media" is more shrill today for its favorite party, I'll agree. Nevertheless, I expect another Republican sweep in 2004-- Presidency, House, Senate, and a majority of state elections.

[goldstategop]

There's no reason to panic now. If the election were held now, I agree we would deserve having our behinds kicked but its too early to draw any hard and fast conclusions. I suspect much of the movement has to do with the Democratic Convention. Its a matter of investors hedging their bets to see how Kerry does. If he does well, the numbers will stay where they are or go up. If its a flop, they'll swing back in the other direction. Its far from over.

[EGPWS]

Patience. This will become apparent in September.

datura, you ARE a poster who wields an impeccable insight!

Political patience has become a necessity since Dubya has taken office.

He has always performed admirably in making people question his motives up to the point of frustration, only to do a slam dunk at the perfect time!

[Bringbackthedraft]

"Bush choose NYC because of 9-11 and "the new tone"
It was a horrible mistake." Maybe, but what if he suddenly announces at the convention that he has a new running mate. One who is a very popular NY'er? Hmmmm, it would change things, wouldn't it? It will be interesting to see what occurs.

[EllaMinnow]

I'm right there with you.

[cyborg]

Get a clue. The Urban League speech was one of his best speeches. Bush will win no matter what storm clouds of doom you concoct about his failure. Either you support the President or you don't. If you are not going to vote for Bush STAY HOME and don't negate my vote. Thanks.

[goldstategop]

Most of the country is more conservative today than in 1988. The GOP controls a majority of the statehouses, state legislatures, and Congress. That's not going to change regardless of who wins the White House in November. The media has always been liberal - even more so today but there are alternatives like FOX NEWS that did not exist back then. Politics is a poor indicator of underlying cultural trends. The Democrats don't have any candidate beyond Kerry as I can see and if he wins, Hillary Clinton will never become President. So while I wouldn't like to see him win, I'd take him just to make sure the Clintons never get back into the White House again. I have confidence in the future of this country that goes well beyond the outcome of one election.

[Cedric]

Dumping Cheney for Rudy would be a horrible, disastrous mistake.

[aruanan]

Doesn't matter how long Tradesports has been around. Tradesports is not a pundit issuing predictions. It is essentially a market, which Conservatives understnad will typically find the right "price" more efficiently than any one person's opinion. Those buying and selling have been around a heck of a lot longer. Hermann1967, unlike you, understands that markets, where money is at stake, are better predictors of the current state of affairs than polls.

All that a market will tell you is something about the beliefs of those people who play the market. It may tell you plenty about the values they impute to some particular commodity or process, but it tells you absolutely nothing about anything outside the market, much less does it tell you anything about the future--only the future as it happens to depend on those in the market, and only to the extent that that future continues to depend on the beliefs of those in the market. Look at tulips.

In this case, people acting as though the means of the future political outcome in November were a market are, indeed, nothing more than a self-selected poll in which their purchase or vote is larger or smaller to represent the intensity of their beliefs about who they want or don't want to win. But it tells you nothing about who will or won't win for two important reasons: 1. The election is not a market. 2. No matter how strongly you feel one way or another, you have but a single vote (unless you're a Democrat in Chicago).

Dressing up a means by which people express the intensity of their feelings about something by calling it a market and then appealing to the concept of the market to appropriate some of its mojo in order to elevate the believability of the faux market is an exercise either in illogic or disingenuity.

However, I think what Hermann1967 misses is that the market is pricing a Bush loss at this state in time, not in November. Markets are fluid. Other posters have correctly indicated that the Dem convention should give Kerry a bump and prices are moving accordingly. Prices can readjust right up until the election, settling in to a final price. We have months to go, so the current odds do not really predict anything.

This errs for the reasons stated above, as well as being argument by analogy.

By the way aruanan, you should be careful with the tone of your posts. When you rip somebody while simultaneously displaying your own ignorance, you look even more foolish than the person you go off on. You may be correct that Bush will win and that Tradesports is not *currently* a reliable indicator of the November outcome, but your actual reason for discouting Tradesports is completely off-base.

This also errs for the reasons stated above.

[finnigan2]

"We'll see if John F*ckin' can make himself over at the convention enough to make voters comfortable with electing him President in November."

- Kerry will be his old, uninspiring schmuck self at the convention but the press coverage will be adoring and that will make all the difference in the world. He could get up at the convention and give a droning speech from the Boston telephone directory and they will hail it as the second Gettysburg address.
By their blind support of a candidate who's background as a self admitted war criminal, proven traitor and far left liberal without any serious legislative achievements in over 20 years of public life (which should have disqualified him from serious consideration from the get-go), they will be placing the country at dangerous risk if they persist in ignoring this man's complete unsuitability for the Presidency.
They better start getting extra sheets and blankets for the Lincoln bedroom, Bab's and the rest of her Hollywood set are already picking out their new jammies.

[arasina]

BOTH of 'em are GONE! Presumably skeedaddled back to DU with the seats of their pants smoking from ZOT.

[ex 98C MI Dude]

All markets are subject to manipulation, just like polls.

And it would make emminent sense to manipulate such things. If your opponents have a feeling of being unable to stop an impending disaster, they are more likely to do something stupid. If all the polls and market predictors are showing your demise, most people will try something out of desperation.

Lastly, these market predictors have shown a Bush win up until this last iteration. Why weren't you here saying Kerry is sunk? The next iteration could have Bush back on top.

The only poll that matters is conducted on November 2nd. Everything else is meaningless.