Posted on 07/09/2004 11:58:45 AM PDT by CondiArmy
ATLANTA - Six-term U.S. Rep. Mac Collins has surprised a lot of people in his bid for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, but maybe not quite the way he intended.
With the campaign in its last 10 days, he is dead last in fund-raising among the three GOP candidates for the seat of retiring Sen. Zell Miller, and until his TV ads began airing this weekend, he had forfeited that medium to rivals Johnny Isakson and Herman Cain.
Collins insisted Friday he's "in good shape" and will peak exactly when he plans - July 20, election day.
But others aren't so sure.
"My sense is, things are not going well for that campaign," said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. "I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish third."
"I've been surprised at his low visibility," said Rusty Paul, a former chairman of the state Republican Party and Isakson supporter. "I think Mac is operating on the theory you can win races in Georgia still with grass roots campaigns ... but it's a much more difficult race to win."
Early on, the race looked to be a contest between two incumbent congressman - Collins, who has been in Washington since 1992, and Isakson, who won a special election in 1999 to replace Newt Gingrich and who had run two statewide races before.
Out of nowhere came Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and political neophyte who dazzled audiences with the skills he honed as a motivational speaker. He is the first black to seek a statewide office in Georgia under the GOP banner since Reconstruction.
With the race now winding down, Isakson leads in fund-raising, Cain is second and Collins is third, and some think that's the way the race will end, with the only question whether Isakson and Cain will meet in a runoff.
Collins doesn't see it that way.
"We're running a very positive campaign that's far from being over or a flop or a dud," Collins said. "You'll see that July 20."
Paul, however, sees a campaign that just isn't catching any breaks.
"His failure to achieve any momentum is not because there's anything inherently wrong with Mac Collins, his philosophy or ideas. He just waited late to get into the race, doesn't have the resources and he assumed he would inherit the right flank. But every day he's had to compete with Herman Cain for the right flank and he hasn't been able to nail that down."
The political arm of the anti-abortion group Georgia Right to Life gave an equal endorsement to Collins and Cain, who allow only one exception for abortion - to preserve the life of the mother. Isakson would also allow exceptions for rape and incest, a position unacceptable to that group.
In addition, Collins' campaign has experienced an unusual amount of staff turnover. He's now operating with his fourth campaign manager and his second press secretary, both brought down from his Washington staff.
"It's generally not thought to be a good thing to have turmoil on your staff," said political scientist Bullock.
"I wouldn't go so far to say it was 'turmoil,'" said Dan Kidder, the campaign's new press secretary. "I would say 'creative differences.'"
He explained: "U.S. Rep. Collins is not one who will be managed. He's been a successful businessman, a very successful leader in Congress ... the only person who's going to manage Mac Collins is Mac Collins."
All that aside, Kidder said Collins has quietly assembled a huge grass roots network that will take the state by surprise on July 20. "Mac Collins is an expert on grass roots campaigning ... people have underestimated him before."
Paul said Gov. Sonny Perdue's victory two years ago shows it is possible to win a statewide campaign with a grass roots campaign, "but everything has to go right."
And one important factor is missing now that helped lift Perdue to victory, Paul said.
"Two years ago you had a very unpopular incumbent. There was a lot of pent-up anger and frustration. In this case, it doesn't exist."
How is Cain polling?
HC ping GO HERMAN GO!
Cain would be a great addition to the GOP in the Senate and could help them begin to capture some of the minority vote. He has the best platform and ideas of the three, but I'm afraid that he won't do well in the rural down-state area.
I hope your asessment is wrong on Cain. Saw him on TV once. Man he would be a great addition to the Senate "club".
There haven't been any "official" polls released in 5+ months but the Cain people seem very confident they are in a firm second place. If there is a run-off between moderate republican Isakson and conservative Republican Cain, Cain has a good chance since Georgia is generally conservative. But Isakson has a lot of name recognition, so he has a chance of getting 50%+ in the primary.
Then I realized she wasn't a pubbie to begin with.
Speaking of maine politicians, how come you let the drunk Pat Lamarche lose on the country.
If you don't count Al Bartell's run in 2002 for Lt. Governor, and probably others, too .....
If there is a run-off..hopefully...would you expect Collis to endorse a candidate?...BTW I am so looking forward to a Cain-Majette debate..)
Cain is polling 2nd. I don't know the margins....
If there is a Cain-Isakson runnoff, Collins will endorse Cain. JMHO.
BTW.I ahve a suggestion that I wanted to toss out here..think it woudl be a great mail campaign to GOP senators....Zell Miller is retiring this term. I'd love to see the Senate GOP invite him to preside over the Senate for one day..
Woah... I live in the Metro Atlanta area and I didn't even know Collins was still in the race. Everything I've heard on radio and TV of late has been Cain or Isakson. Collins hasn't entered any of the political discussions I've had with anyone lately, either. He really needs to get his visibility up if he plans on "peaking."
But a quick scan of her donor list does reveal an awful lot of Ahmeds and Mohammeds and Hakims, etc.
I'm a resident of the 4th, and the best we can hope for at this point is a strong Levetan showing.
Well, once in office, they are going to do what they want to anyway. They think they are "little gods" you know! ugh!
Dang straight. I'll proudly pull the lever for Herman come time for the primary.
I got a Cain bumper sticker from my tool guy, and was very surprised to see a handwritten message from Cain on the back.
Go Isakson!
Money doesn't win races in GA. Just ask Guy Millner, Roy Barnes, and Max Cleland.
I suspect Collins will do better than this article suggests.
Collins does have his base and he will have a good showing. He may well have the "silent majority" but I think he is not trying hard at all. He doesn't seem to be well known outside of his district.
LOL
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