Posted on 06/27/2004 2:04:13 PM PDT by A. Pole
NEW YORK - After 20 months of looking for work and sending out hundreds of résumés, Jeffrey Schwab has given up trying to find another job as a draftsman. He's now taken early Social Security and is considering whether to sell his Bellingham, Wash., home to move to something smaller. "From what I can tell, there's not much to look for," says Mr. Schwab, who has 35 years of pipeline-design experience. "I am standing around with nothing to do."
Even though the economy has created 1.2 million jobs since January, some 265,000 people have dropped out of the job hunt during the same period. They would join some 19.1 million Americans in the same situation as Schwab, who are unemployed and not looking for work largely because they are convinced they won't find it. This figure, at a record level, is up 44 percent from 10 years ago.
If the job market continues to improve, this large number of people could decide to get back in the job market - which would hold the unemployment rate relatively high, even as new jobs are created.
"If this flow of nonworking Americans were to reverse, it would send the jobless rate toward 8 percent," says John Challenger of the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas in Chicago.
That would certainly be the case in Pennsylvania, agrees the state's governor, Edward Rendell (D). The official unemployment rate is 5.4 percent, but it's "much greater," Mr. Rendell says, when factoring in men who have been cut off welfare and never got back into the workforce "and as a result never show up in the unemployment rolls."
Sometimes a rising jobless rate, says Bob Brusca of Fact and Opinion Economics in New York, can be a positive sign of a vibrant labor market that's luring more people in than it can absorb. But "that change has not occurred."
Many workforce dropouts in the age group of 25 to 54 have spent years working in shrinking industries, such as telecommunications or software development. "There are many people who have been downsized - a permanent job loss - that are taking a long time to return to work," says Andrew Stettner of the National Employment Law Project in New York. "They have had such a hard time when they are looking that they have given up, even though they don't necessarily want to."
In Tiffin, Ohio, that's the case with Merree Phillips, who lost her job a year ago as a development officer at Heidelberg College. She says that at times frustrations sap her motivation. "Some weeks you don't work as hard since it's so easy to get discouraged and you wonder whether it's worth it to keep pounding your head against the wall," she says. "I have not gotten to the interview stage of any job I have applied for."
Ms. Phillips thinks that the job market is actually shrinking in her area. A year ago, she says there were 20 to 25 listings for professionals in the want ads in The Courier, a Findlay, Ohio, newspaper. Sunday, the online edition had only four such ads. "I don't want to come off as a slacker, but there aren't even any decent prospects," she says.
Some workers who have officially stopped looking are going back to school. Enrollment at the nation's community colleges, which offer much of the job retraining, is soaring.
One of those who has gone back to school is Penni Neff, a divorced mother of a teenage boy who lost her job at a hospital.
Now, she's in school to become a licensed practical nurse.
"Gee, I don't know why people throw their arms up and say 'I give up!' " she writes in an e-mail.
"Sorry, I'm not doing it, but I get doors slammed all the time," says Ms. Neff, who has four months left to finish her courses before she starts another training program to become a registered nurse.
Neff's move is probably in the right direction, says Mr. Challenger. "She's evidence of the migration of going from the old economy to the new, particularly jobs that are service-related," says the outplacement guru. He says other areas that the long-term unemployed should consider include international business, housing construction, real estate, utilities, and the energy industry. "People often pigeonhole themselves," he says. "We're seeing almost 50 percent of people changing industries, but not functions."
Challenger adds that hiring someone who has been out of work for a long time can be rewarding for employers as well. "[The new workers] are really hungry to get back, so you are getting someone who is really committed and is not going to move quickly as a free agent," he says. "You can save people's lives and get very committed employees that way."
A job would certainly help someone like Schwab in Bellingham. His wife, who was also laid off, is now working 30 hours a week at a store, but she does not get benefits. They are now considering all options, including the sale of their home. "We needed a bigger house to care for my wife's mom, who had Alzheimer's disease," he says. "But it's more expensive to pay for and heat."
Every state is crying for teachers. If you have a BA or BS in any field, you can take a test and be certified in most states. Not the greatest pay in the world but it is secure and has health benefits and retirement.
If you don't have a Bachelors, why not? Anyone who wants to go to college or university today can do so. It took me eight years to finish a four-year degree plan but I did it.
No I would not move to go get a slave wage job. However, if I was a draftsman and one side of the country paid three times as much as another side, I'd move.
Lam Research or Applied Materials?
Most here at FR do not waste their time at DU.
I like to check in there and see what the enemy has to say about daily events.
I dont have the thread that this loser posted on, but I will tell you what he wrote.
This loser claimed he had been out of work for four, yes four, years.
I saw this and wanted to register on DU just to tell him to move where the jobs are and call him a loser. But, they did not allow a Yahoo e-mail address. So I gave up.
"Hiring up, but many jobless not looking" this guy is driving those numbers.
LOSER!
What kind of business? Pipe designer - what's that?
Glad you asked - see this sample page: Pipe Designers :)
Jeffrey is like me - skilled in designing and building power plants, refineries, and factories - none of which we design and build in America any more. The last American nuclear plant was completed in 1986, and the last American oil refinery was completed in the late 70s. We don't build factories here any more, either.
I remember when my Contract Engineering Weekly was full of page after page of ads for "pipers" (piping designers). Ahhh...I long for those days.
On a happier note, drafting is what saved me. Not being able to find any work in the industrial world, I am using my home computer and AutoCAD to design houses for local architects.
MAKE A JOB!
You can make a living doing a lot of things. A friend works weekends, only, from about 7am until 7pm. He bought a 'pig cooker', and sets up on the side of the road, with a tent, and all the accoutrements required by the local health dept. folk.
He worked out a deal, with a farmer, who owns land on both sides of the road. He sets up so the wind blows the 'aroma' across the road.
Besides making hickory-smoked pulled pig, NC-style, he keeps whole chickens, burgers, and smokies on the grill. ...and his baby-back ribs....mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm good! He made six figures last year, NET! He worked about 8 months last year...
Two years ago - after I lost my job and unable to find another one - I took a community college course and learned AutoCAD.
Anybody with previous drafting experience can become an expert in computer drafting within two months - it's EASY!
In fact, I dropped out of the class half way through because I had finished all the chapters and done all the homework by then. (The instructor got pi$$ed when I started doing 3-D stuff and told me that I was too far ahead and would have to just sit and wait for everyone else to catch up.)
But I had an advantage over the younger kids, you see, because I actually knew math, trig, and geometry - which they all seemed to struggle with, being products of the modern American educational system.
Cheech Marin may be looking for some help, when he gets out!
This is a good survival strategy for the over-30 white engineer. You can't get away with putting jobs and education that don't really exist on your resume, but if you delete jobs, there's no way they can tell.
That's one reason people have to plan ahead because a college degree isn't instant or cheap. It costs money to go to college and when someone has a mortgage, kids to raise and support, car payments, etc it isn't just a snap of the fingers.
What's bad around here is the average government housing subsidy is now up to $400 a month making even the crappy apartments and neighborhoods filled with welfare types very expensive.
operations research
Why work when you can lay home and draw unemployment.
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