Posted on 06/10/2004 12:19:49 AM PDT by kattracks
June 10, 2004 -- NOW is a good time to look back at the landslide win that sent Ronald Reagan to the White House in 1980, because lots of analysts think 2004 could turn out the same way — close for a long time and then suddenly breaking wide open. In 1980, the break came just days before the vote, when Democrat Jimmy Carter finally agreed to debate. Reagan came off as sunny instead of scary and when he admonished Carter with a smile, "There you go again," it was all over.Like President Bush, Carter faced voters nervous over both the economy and foreign policy and wondering whether it's time for a change — in Carter's case, skyrocketing inflation at home plus the endless Iran hostage crisis.
But there's a big difference, since Carter kept getting bad news on both fronts, while Bush is starting to get good news on both the economy, with a surge in new jobs, and Iraq, with international support for the June 30 transfer of power.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
I remember reports in the Indian and Chinese press the December following the invasion that 1 or 2 of OBL's bodyguards had done him in and were immediately killed by other guards. Sheik Omar was apparently hit, also. Neither has been concretely seen or heard from again.
The pattern has been for a tape to come out and first reports are that is real followed by reports that the quality is too poor to verify with confidence. Then after an interval the government spokesmen simply act as though the verification was good. I believe it is in the government's interest to let OBL be alive, much more early on than now.
If it were allowed that OBL was killed then the left in the US would have been immediately in full cry that The War Is Over and we have to Bring The Boys Home and cut off funding and stuff. OBL dead or alive, this war will not be over for a long time. OBL does America more good alive than dead.
Even now if OBL is known to be captured or killed there will be a loud cry to end the war and Kerry would get the boost. If he is confirmed dead or even taken alive it will be much better for W if it is in the last 2 weeks before the election before the left has time to get it together.
How do you figure a landslide? I figure on a comfy win, but no landslide.
How do you realistically expect Bush to carry even 1/5th (only 3) of the following states: Hawaii, Cali, Wash, Oregon, Minn, Ill, Michigan, Maine, NY, CT, Delaware, NJ, Maryland, Mass, Rhode Island and DC?
That's 214 EVs that Kerry is very very likely to win. The good news is I think he is unlikely to win any other EVs.
So that's Bush with about 324 EVs, and Kerry with about 214. Its looked that way to me all alongm and I expect thats how it will wind up on election day.
The good news is it won't look as close for most of Election night. Of Kerry's 214, I figure about 77 will be in the left coast and Hawaii - that means Bush will have won before Cali chimes in, with Kerry tallying a comparatively anemic 137 electoral votes before the left coast is counted - Bush with about 321 EVs to Kerry's 137 as we wrap up the western desert states.
Bush will win about 325 Electoral Votes, well shy of a huge landslide. Bush will win comfortably, with nice coattails, but a Reagan-like landslide? Not a chance.
So, what you're telling me is, there's no down side.
Hitler based quite a bit of his beliefs on Helen Blavatsky and the theosophists, not the Rosicrucians who are in fact Christians.
Down here in Chile there are still a lot of rabid NAZIs wandering around, and there is Chilean NAZI called Miguel Serrano who wrote a book on Nazism I came across in a library -- the belief system is really mostly Teutonic mysticism mixed in with some Hindu and oriental mysticism and wierd racism. It is no accident that a lot of Indians were rabid NAZIs...
whoops, sorry. YOU are correct, counterpunch is wrong...
That is exactly right. Madam Blavatsky's "The Secret Doctrine" is the very blueprint for Nazi spiritualism. Coincidentally, it is also the blueprint for the New Age movement.
Liberalism is a mental illness. And when such erroneous beliefs are acted upon, becomes criminal insanity.
Someone who is so obviously in need for our support, not contempt should SURELY understand a President who, while not perfect in your conservative eyes, still is miles ahead of his opponent in conservative values and direction for our country. At this crucial time, he needs your support, not your contempt. Or do you not see the hypocricy in your pleadings for understanding while showing little or no understanding of our present situation?
I believe Bush will carry 4 to 6 of the states you listed.
I rather preferred your comments in # 229 the logical extension of which liken liberalism to a soul sickness rather than a mental disorder. But what the hell to each his own metaphor.
Your comments and chilepeppers are very observant and go to the heart of the matter. That's why there is such a huge divide in the nation (indeed, the world). There are two opposing world views:
1. The universe and everything in it is accidental, there is no God or superior spiritual force in control. Therefore there is no meaning or purpose other than what each person invents for themselves. And for persons who view their existence as ultimately meaningless, as tiny specks adrift in an empty universe, ready to get snuffed out at any minute, the only real purpose is to gratify the desires of the ego and senses. Dog eat dog becomes the actual driving force for such people.
2. God exists, He is the author of all that is, and is the generator of all existences. He created everything and everyone for a purpose. Generally religions express that purpose as being the reunion of the lost souls with God in love for eternity. People who hold to this world view see the purpose of their existence as meaningful and larger than their own personal desires or ego.
Any 4 or 6 in particular?
He has almost no chance in Hawaii, Cali, Wash, Minn, Ill, Maine, NY, CT, NJ, Maryland, Mass, Rhode Island and DC, which isn't a state.
That only leaves Oregon, Michigan, Delaware where he even has a chance, and he may win one of those, but not all 3.
Which 4 to 6 states do you think he will carry?
The European system of trade came from the Hanse and the Italians. Representative government outside of England came from the guilds and their business dealings with each other. They were able to deal across family and guild lines with bills of lading and receipts because the Jews had shown how to use discounting and the lending of capital. The paper trading required a confidence that agreements would be adhered to even if it was to one party's advantage to abscond. Asian trade depended on the ruler. The traders were agents of the ruler and there was little sideways trade. Trading was all even-steven. Credit was something that existed only in the family and capital was not transferrable. Trade grew slowly but enterprise did not and periodically the ruler expropriated the merchant. The Chinese experimented with paper money that was a form of credit but it did not spread far or last long except ceremonially. It was of little utility where there was not expected trust. In the 800s and again in the 1200s much of China's "international" trade was carried on by Syrian and local Nestorian Christians. When those disappeared with a regime change that trade dried up and slowly grew until the Nestorians entered the scene again with the Mongols. Then that trade blossomed again.
I have been in a few situations where I thought my demise was imminent, actually, plus another situation of a month long hospital stay. I never turned to any god at any time. I don't have a Buddha to rub, I have no idea which Hindu god to pray to in that situation.. Kali..?), I'm not quite sure of the order of the crossing oneself, I wouldn't cry to Allah because I wasn't about to die from a self-inficted explosion, and I do not have any verses from the Bible or any other text memorized.
I didn't do nothing though. I tried to survive.
And from this cleft all the things of man and God flow.
You are right about aristocracies and trade developed in its modern capitalist form in societies in which government grew from the bottom up, from the guilds in the cities only nominally, if at all, ruled by nonresident kings or barons. The Venetians and Genoese had closer functional relationships with the Church in Rome than with any prince.
Trading in England took off when Mercantilism faded out and was finally abandoned for free trade. Mercantilism is Royal and Aristrocratic trade. It is more like the Emperor's trade than like the Hanse.
It's the memos....They may only be position papers or idea..but it will be made to look like policy.
Here are the 6 possible contenders:
California, Oregon, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey
Don't tell me that he has no chance in California or New Jersey. He's currently within a point of Kerry here in California, and I believe there has been a shift here, I can feel it. And in New Jersey he has been leading Kerry in some recent polls.
The Great Lake states can always go either way, and Oregon was some 700 votes apart last election. Bush has been leading Kerry there in recent polls as well.
I didn't consider Delaware, because I am just not that familiar with it. Throw that into the contender catagory, but keep my prediction of 4 to 6 going to Bush.
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