Replies

Here are the 6 possible contenders:
California, Oregon, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey

Don't tell me that he has no chance in California or New Jersey. He's currently within a point of Kerry here in California, and I believe there has been a shift here, I can feel it. And in New Jersey he has been leading Kerry in some recent polls.

The Great Lake states can always go either way, and Oregon was some 700 votes apart last election. Bush has been leading Kerry there in recent polls as well.

I didn't consider Delaware, because I am just not that familiar with it. Throw that into the contender catagory, but keep my prediction of 4 to 6 going to Bush.

If I may jump in here with $0.02 worth, and a pessimistic penny's worth it is:

I think Bush will do very well to win this thing yet I do not think it will be nearly as close as it now appears or as it was in 2000.

Once out of the old red states, Bush must swim against the demographic tide on the coasts and around the Lakes. He must hold all he won last time with the exception of a throwaway like W. Va. because of the adjustment in the college due to population shift. If Bush loses Ohio, he probably cannot win because that has more than mathematical significance, it means he will not win any blue states and probably lose Missouri or Florida and Nevada or even Ark. and La. as well.

Its further significance is that it will mean that some event or some trend or some gaff in the debates went against him and took the battleground states in its wake.

On the other hand, if Kerry cannot carry Pa. he cannot win and for the same reasons. He could then likely lose Ohio, Wis, Mich. Minn and Ia. and perhaps Or.

History teaches that it is extremely unlikely that the election coin will land on its edge two election cycles in a row. So I believe that we will not muddle along as we are until election morning with no major break. But if no major break occurs, then the advantage goes to Kerry because Bush must really swim against the demographic tide when he plays away games. I just believe the numbers are easier for Kerry in Ohio than they are for Bush in Pa, or will prove to be, barring a major event, when the states revert to their normal stasis. This applies to a lesser degree to Fl. and Wis.

But I believe a major election turning event is historically predictable. If the turn is to be a debate gaff, I do not share the majority view that Bush will easily win the contest. We see the game as junkies but the debates are for undecideds who by definition are ignorant. It all turns on perception and Bush can have that deer in the headlights look. Kerry, stiff as he is, does not lose his cool and is articulate. We are foolishly counting him short. We discount him because we disagree with his politics but soccer moms who will decide this thing in Ohio see the world through a different prism. And the big spender has the advantage seen through that prism. She also wants security for her kids and she want to know that the most competent LOOKING man will be there to protect them.

An external event such as a terrorist strike or an assassination, or the capture of Bin Laden would probably help Bush. But a catastrophe in Iraq or in Arabia or a severe oil shortage or a market crash would knock him out as would a major scandal. Although Bush has gone far in the last weeks to fix his vulnerabilities in the war, he still remains hostage to events in Iraq. He simply cannot control the state of play there but al Sistani can.

Until now Bush has done an execrable job in geting credit for the recovering economy because of his tax cuts. Equally, he has failed to scare folks with the real facts that Kerry will kill the recovery with tax hikes. If Bush can improve his public relations performance here and if the Iraq war ends with a whimper and not a bang, he has a chance to win the soccer moms on the economy and win a narrow victory.

But the likelihood remains that some event will sweep all in its path one way or another.