Posted on 05/19/2004 3:42:46 PM PDT by ambrose
My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
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Right now W's average approval ratings is 45.1% from last 9 polls (Dem or GOP polls don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating in a 2 way race is 1%.
So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.
Kerry 51.9%
W 45.6%
Nader 1.7%
Others 0.8%
W/O Nader
Kerry 52.9%
Bush 46.1%
Others 1.0%
MoE+/-1%
Well, Nader already failed to qualify in Texas so there goes the 50 state thing. BTW, if he failed with Texas he's pretty much guaranteed to fail in Oklahoma, North Carolina, and Georgia, which have even more difficult access. He'll also fail in Florida unless he gets on with a party line (and it's unclear whether the Reform Party qualifies, because they didn't hold a nominating convention as Florida law specifies).
ping ;)
High poll numbers like this will embolden Ralphie.
They may, but his boldness still won't get him on the Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina, or Georgia ballots.. =) possibly not on the Florida ballot either.
If people who want to vote for Nader are denied the opportunity - will they even bother to show up at the polls? If they don't, won't this hurt the Democrats in congressional races?
Prove that in these nine polls Kerry is averaging 51.9%!!!!!!! This is the second time I see you posting this.
Go Nader go!
My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
That's my formula: per what Mathew Dowd ( W's Pollster) said how approval ratings determine actual votes.
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If W's Average Approval Rating after Labor Day (Dem or GOP polls don't count) remains at or is higher than 48.5%, W will win PERIOD !
However, if W's Average Approval Rating after Labor Day(Dem or GOP polls don't count) remains lower than 48.5%, W will lose.
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The max W will get over his average approval rating in a 2 way race is 1%.
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My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
It's probably not of any great consequence. For one thing, people inclined to vote for Nader aren't that many. They were less than 3% in 2000 and will be less than 2% (probably less than 1.5% in 2004). Why people give any credence to early-cycle poll showings of 3rd Party candidates when they merely serve as a proxy for None of the Above is beyond me.
Furthermore, the areas where Nader's support is concentrated are already heavily liberal areas where the House incumbents will win by 60%+ margins, often 70-80%. In addition to that, those states do not feature any competitive Senate elections this year where one may argue that Nader voters might tip the balance - arguable exception, Florida.
I personally think Nader is inconsequential as I've often said before. The protest vote is routine and it doesn't really matter who picks it up - the names are interchangable. That's why you see some polls where Nader actually slights Bush more than Kerry (which leads some people to foolishly dismiss them). A third party contender who can break out of the protest-vote gutter is always self-evident (1912, 1968, 1980, 1992) - Nader 2004 isn't it.
I observed you posting many polls in the last few months and you seems pessimistic. Please always remember that there is a fine line between being realistic and being pessimistic and on the other hand there is a fine line between being optimistic and being delusional.
The President numbers are not as high as they should because he does not have 90% or higher of the conservatives/Republicans. The electorate is divided as 40% conservatives, 35% are moderates, and 25% liberals. If the President get 90% of conservatives votes, 38% of moderates, of and 2% of liberal votes, he will get 49.9% votes. I do not think that this is terribly difficult for the President to do. The key for President Bush is to get 90% of conservatives/Republicans to his side and there are plenty of issues he can energize them from now until Election Day, in particular on social issues. Think "Homosexual marriage" issue being on of the top three issues of the campaign and the President fight to make a constitutional amendment defining marriage between a man and a woman.
I am realistic ! that' all....
I call it as I see it
However, if W's Average Approval Rating after Labor Day(Dem or GOP polls don't count) remains lower than 48.5%, W will lose.
In other words, there is absolutely NO margin for error in KQQL's formula.
Hi,
I'm not sure if it has had a general release. Maybe the lamestream media is saddened by its content, and refuse to bolster it with mention. I know I did see it, as I had a friend call me long distance to see if I had seen it also.
I guess we shall have to wait until we see it posted here on FR. Maybe Brit will mention it again tonight.
LLS
I operative factor here is "Labor Day."
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