If W's Average Approval Rating after Labor Day (Dem or GOP polls don't count) remains at or is higher than 48.5%, W will win PERIOD !
However, if W's Average Approval Rating after Labor Day(Dem or GOP polls don't count) remains lower than 48.5%, W will lose.
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The max W will get over his average approval rating in a 2 way race is 1%.
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My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
I observed you posting many polls in the last few months and you seems pessimistic. Please always remember that there is a fine line between being realistic and being pessimistic and on the other hand there is a fine line between being optimistic and being delusional.
The President numbers are not as high as they should because he does not have 90% or higher of the conservatives/Republicans. The electorate is divided as 40% conservatives, 35% are moderates, and 25% liberals. If the President get 90% of conservatives votes, 38% of moderates, of and 2% of liberal votes, he will get 49.9% votes. I do not think that this is terribly difficult for the President to do. The key for President Bush is to get 90% of conservatives/Republicans to his side and there are plenty of issues he can energize them from now until Election Day, in particular on social issues. Think "Homosexual marriage" issue being on of the top three issues of the campaign and the President fight to make a constitutional amendment defining marriage between a man and a woman.
However, if W's Average Approval Rating after Labor Day(Dem or GOP polls don't count) remains lower than 48.5%, W will lose.
In other words, there is absolutely NO margin for error in KQQL's formula.
I operative factor here is "Labor Day."