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To: AntiGuv

If people who want to vote for Nader are denied the opportunity - will they even bother to show up at the polls? If they don't, won't this hurt the Democrats in congressional races?


26 posted on 05/19/2004 6:02:58 PM PDT by ambrose (AP Headline: "Kerry Says His 'Family' Owns SUV, Not He")
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To: ambrose

It's probably not of any great consequence. For one thing, people inclined to vote for Nader aren't that many. They were less than 3% in 2000 and will be less than 2% (probably less than 1.5% in 2004). Why people give any credence to early-cycle poll showings of 3rd Party candidates when they merely serve as a proxy for None of the Above is beyond me.

Furthermore, the areas where Nader's support is concentrated are already heavily liberal areas where the House incumbents will win by 60%+ margins, often 70-80%. In addition to that, those states do not feature any competitive Senate elections this year where one may argue that Nader voters might tip the balance - arguable exception, Florida.

I personally think Nader is inconsequential as I've often said before. The protest vote is routine and it doesn't really matter who picks it up - the names are interchangable. That's why you see some polls where Nader actually slights Bush more than Kerry (which leads some people to foolishly dismiss them). A third party contender who can break out of the protest-vote gutter is always self-evident (1912, 1968, 1980, 1992) - Nader 2004 isn't it.


31 posted on 05/19/2004 7:09:45 PM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
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