Specter Wins 51-49 Republican Senatorial Primary: live thread

4/27/2004 | self

[rudy45]

My apologies if a thread already exists. I did a search on "Toomey" and found nothing.

I arrived at my polling area (suburban Philadelphia) at 6:45 am to hand out palm cards. The weather is terrific this morning, but turnout (I thought) was light (I had to leave at 9:15, but will be back).

Actually, I have a good feeling about Pat.

[Impy]

Bush and Santorum are RINO enablers. :(

[jmc813]

We'll lose the seat, even this liberal seat, to a Dem in November. Is that what you want or am I getting something wrong here?

I'm sending money to Hoeffel today. I'm serious.

[republicanwizard]

Don't be an ass. Send your hard-earned money to anohter conservative candidate of your choice. Perhaps Herman Cain in Georgia. Don't give it to a Democrat because you don't like Arlen Specter.

[republicanwizard]

You want a "night of the long lives?"

Find a better phrase. Considering that Arlen Specter is Jewish, it is highly inappropriate.

[Impy]

I hope you get the runs.

[Josh in PA]

Toomey would have been a disaster in the general, would have handed the Dems another seat in the Senate,and would have made PA that much tougher to carry in November in the Presidential election. That's politcal reality... I know it doesn't jive with your ideological desires, but that's reality.

=====


No matter now many times you say this, it's not going to come true.

"Toomey couldn't win in November" line is one of the biggest bunk statements of the year.

He's from a district that went Gore-Clinton-Clinton.
He bumped a 3-term incumbent Democrat in that district.
Santorum bumped an incumbent statewide in 1994.

Facts: Specter has barely edged underfunded candidates in the past.

The % chance of GOP holding the seat were roughly the same no matter who the nominee was.

[jmc813]

Don't be an ass. Send your hard-earned money to anohter conservative candidate of your choice.

Sorry wiz, I'm gonna be an ass. I'm in an extremely pissed off mood today, so every time someone from the liberal wing of the GOP here on FR makes smartass condecending comment, I'm going to make a small donation to Hoeffel, between $1 and $5.

[pctech]

Thingis , Toomey, IMHO, would have won if he gotten the endorsement of the sitting president and his fellow CONVERSATIVE republicans. I think we can lay the blame for this lose on those two facts alone.

[ClintonBeGone]

Rove = Winner

Your Comments = Sour Grapes

[familyofman]

If the voter turnout was low that should have helped Toomey. Since, in my recollections, incumbents do worse if voter turnout is low. If the turnout had been higher - does that presuppose Arlen would have won by a larger margin.

Another interesting tidbit, which I didn't know, dems could vote in this repub primary - can anyone verify that? If so, a small dedicated group of dems could have had a much larger impact than they would have had with a larger turnout.

Who do you (all) think benefitted more from the low voter turnout?

[jmc813]

This is good news for Republicans and good news for Bush. Toomey would have lost the general election.

Shut up.

[Tribune7]

This implies the following: it's very cost-efficient to support a conservative challenger against a liberal incumbent, and it doesn't take a lot of money (relatively speaking) to unseat an entrenched incumben . . . I think conservatives all over the country are going to follow the Toomey model to go after incumbent liberals, and I think it's going to be successful.

Very true. The other good thing it might do is make the left-leaning Pubbies vote more conservative.

[bvw]

"There are time that I assume other FReepers are as knowledgable as I am. I don't write this as a way of insulting you. I just don't know you or how cognicent of the world you are so forgive me if I come off as condiscending.

Here's some advice: That is as off-putting and demeaning an opening sentence as anyone, in the world, in the universe, could ever have read. We are all glad you are self-assured and comfortable in your knowledge of things. However, I think -- me personally, I think -- that no one would want to read any further that what you wrote there in that amazing -- simply awesomely, staggeringly rude -- sentence. The sentiment you would seemingly wish to evoke in your reader has a well-known abbreviation. by the way. That is:

"BOHICA"

My advice: Write to be read or don't bother writing at all.

[ohioWfan]

I disagree with your "vote for Kerry" analysis because assuming you believe me that I would never actually vote for Kerry, I would be the same as someone who stayed home, the same way millions of Christians have done in prior elections. If Republicans want our votes, we are here, we are right here.

Any Christian who is thinking about sitting out this election and risking throwing this country back into the hands of the amoral, pro-death, anti-military, UN appeasing left, had better get on his knees in prayer right now.

The stakes are too great for anyone who names the Name of Christ to behave like a spoiled child having a tantrum because he doesn't get everything he wants.

Don't be stupid. Be a grown up. There will only be one viable candidate who will help advance conservative causes, and even more importantly, keep this country from being destroyed from without and within.

Vote for him.

[ohioWfan]

How old are you?? Twelve??

[HamiltonJay]

Josh,

You can believe what you want to believe. I will disagree. Toomey has no track record state wide, and is and not any day soon will be a Santorum.

Toomey was destined to be chewed and spit out like nobodies business in the general particularly in Eastern Pa/Philadelphia region. I know you don't believe it, don't want to believe it, and are going to go to your grave believing otherwise, but thats reality.

Its happened time and time again in this state and will continue to. Toomey was another Fisher, pure and simple in the general.

You can disagree, which is your right. But carrying a district V carrying a state in a presidential election year are not one in the same.

I commend you for sticking to your guy, but he lost. I know the wound is still fresh, and any criticism of him will be like salt upon that wound, but the reality is he did lose. To believe a canidate that at best would have eeked out his primary, by running as to the right of the sitting Senator was going to have a chance in hell in a general election where Dems outnumber Republicans state wide and that Bush didn't carry in '00 for being to conservative is flat out denial.

The democratic canidate is a Liberal, and a pretty hard core one at that. You put a Liberal V Conservative in this state, particularly if they are both hard core and you wind up with moderates largely staying home and those that do go to the polls break democratic... Toomey was toast state wide.

[jmc813]

How old are you?? Twelve??

Look, I've got a really bad case of the flu and I'm in a really pissed off mood over this primary. For one day, I ain't gonna be PC.

[ohioWfan]

Hey, I'm not talking about being PC.

You seriously sound like you're twelve, flu or not.

Just a dispassionate observation...........

Hope you feel better soon. Force fluids. :o)

[dmz]

Wow. Didn't know that God himself had checked in on this particular primary. Must be awesome for you to know the Will of God down to this level of detail.

[steveegg]

Yeah, Kyl will work well with President Democrat.

Had Rove and President Bush simply stayed out of this race, they were more likely to get both 4 more years for Bush, and a non-RINO Pubbie from Pennsylvania (with Kyl likely running the Judiciary). Now, if they're lucky, they'll either lose the Electoral Votes and keep Scottish Law (most likely), or get the Votes and lose the seat.

To amplify on that, let's consider what a Toomey win would have done in November versus what Specter's win will do. Toomey would have created the same "clear difference in opinion" in the Senate race that exists in the Presidential race, with virtually no cross-over. True, it would tighten things up, but with a "slate" type of election, the race at the top is most important. That race is in Bush's favor.

Now, however, we have Specter. Which of the two scenarios (or the darker lose/lose scenario of Kerry and Hoeffel carrying Pennsylvania) happens depends on 2 things; where Specter's late support in the primary came from and whether the Toomey supporters ultimately bite the bullet one more time. A Specter-Hoeffel race doesn't have a "clear difference" since Specter is a liberal. Not only will a bunch of primary Specter voters (those that obeyed the RAT Masters and reregistered as RINOs) revert back to the RAT Party fully in November, but a small chunk of voters (enough to make a difference) will go with a Ke(rr)y/Specter ballot.

Meanwhile, despite all the consternation around here about boycotting the Senate election (and to a lesser extent, the Presidential one), most of the Toomey supporters will ultimately decide that the risk of a "majority of VP" in the Senate is not worth "sending a message". To the extent that they stay home or otherwise send a "protest" vote, however, the chances of a lose/lose are greater.