Quake to Hit Los Angeles By September 5th (6.4 Richter or Higher)

Sydney Morning Herald & Agence France Presse ^ | April 15, 2004 | wire staff

[threat matrix]

A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claming to have cracked the holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will hit southern California by September 5.

Russian born UCLA professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can forsee major quakes by tracking minor tremblers and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way.

And he has made the chilling prediction that a quake measuring at least 6.4 magintude on the Richter scale will hit a 32,000 square km area of southern California bt September 5.

The team at the UCLA Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics accurately predicted a 6.5 magnitude earthquake in central California last December as well as an 8.1 magnitude trembler that struck the Japanese island of Hokkaido in September.

A major quake will hit an area that stretches across desert regions to the east of Los Angeles, home to about nine million people, including the Mojave desert and the resort town of Palm Springs, which lies near the notorious San Andreas fault.

[Junior]

I guess I ought to forward this to my mother-in-law in Riverside County.

[Poohbah]

What's the uncertainty zone look like, and what's their central datum?

[WinOne4TheGipper]

It's Bush's fault!!! Or will be...

[threat matrix]

I was thinking about forwarding this story to my sister as well..

[John H K]

Misleading headline, as the forecasted potential area is ENORMOUS, most of which is more or less uninhabited desert, NOT Los Angeles.

[threat matrix]

Bob Woodward's book said it's so!

Bush should have known, and when did he know it?

[Tax-chick]

Earthquake prediction

[John H K]

It's a pretty big area. At least they're forecasting in a legitimate way giving specified date ranges, magnitudes, and locations, they're not kooks as 99.9999999% of so-called quake forecasters are, who spend more time on spin than forecasting.

However, all of their forecasts have been of a nature that they've had a pretty good chance of being correct by dumb luck, up to this point. That's even true of this one.

[TomGuy]

There is even to be a movie about a big earthquake on TV this weekend (IIRC). It has extremist West California separating from the mainland.

[MegaSilver]

Do SMH articles have to be excerpted?

[onedoug]

The tectonics of the areas cited are widely disparate. I'm dubious of the same "precursors" representing the same outcomes.

Outside the broader applications of "forecasting" statistics, it might be prudent to recall the words of Charles Richter, who developed the magnitude scale that bears his name:

"Only idiots and liars predict earthquakes."

[TLI]

sooo, it is a bedtime story?

[appalachian_dweller]

((( ping)))

Have you seen this?

[threat matrix]

Hopefully, it will be centered in the desert.

[John H K]

Word is that movie is going to be legendary for scientific inaccuracy (and that's a high standard for all disaster movies). Basically pure garbage. Producers apparently didn't even pretend to get a science advisor, did their "research" on the internet.

It's literally physically impossible to have a 10.5 quake in California, or anywhere else for that matter.

[pbear8]

Al Gore invented earthquakes.

John Kerry predicted there would be earthquakes in LA before he predicted there wouldn't be earthquakes in LA.

[John H K]

The really weird thing is this prediction has been out and public for 6+ months now, and for whatever reason the media suddenly noticed it about a couple weeks ago.

[threat matrix]

So far UCLA Physics lab is two for two..

[xusafflyer]

Escape from LA coming soon to reality near you.

Kurt Russell will save us all.