Toomey Within 6 Of Specter In New Poll

SurveyUSA ^ | 4/6/04

[Dales]

U.S. Senate, PA GOP Primary

4/6/2004
Specter- 46%
Toomey- 40%
Other/Undecided- 14%
Data Collected 4/3/04 - 4/5/04
Geography- State of Pennsylvania
Sample Population- 490 Certain Voters
Margin of Error- 4.5%
Client- KDKA-TV Pittsburgh WCAU-TV Philadelphia WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre

[AuH2ORepublican]

ARLEN SPECTER IS GOING DOWN!

[GEC]

I just received a HUGE direct mail postcard from Specter today and you'll never guess what phrase is in big print on the front with a picture of the Scottish Law scholar using a laptop.

Okay, I didn't think they would be this stupid, but let them just keep repeating it from now until primary election day, "Arlen Specter Knows It's Your Money".

This is perhaps a slight improvement from the completely unconvincing radio ad phrase, "I know it's not the government's money."

I now believe that it's possible for Specter to be defeated.

He frankly looked horrible in the small portion of the debate that I saw. Died hair and rouge do not become the man, and trying to get through his notes looked pathetic.

[Ciexyz]

bump with no comment.

[CPT Clay]

We've got a race on our hands!!!!!!

[Temple Owl]

I think Toomey will clean his clock. Don't forget that once he beats Specter, the rest of the Pennsylvania GOP will get in step with him.

[Temple Owl]

April 27.Go Pat go!

[Temple Owl]

If Specter wins, he will have to get down every day and thank President Bush.

Don't bet the farm on that logic. Specter is an ingrate.

[narses]

Sitting Senators, even from Scotland don't often lose. OTOH, not getting over 50% at this stage is bad, really bad. Perhaps the odious proabortion Senator from Scotland can be retired with ignominy as he so well desrves.

Go Pat Go!

[republicanwizard]

Well, considering that Specter supported Toomey in 1998, one could argue that Toomey is an ingrate.

[fiftymegaton]

You forget about the 14% undecided.

[Temple Owl]

I have known Specter personally for about 5 decades. Trust me. Vote for Pat.

[joanie-f]

Thanks for the ping, AuH2O.

A friend of mine from the Pittsburgh area called me a few weeks ago and said that one of the things that is tucked in the backs of many people’s minds out there is that ghostly field in Shanksville where citizen soldiers on Flight 93 performed their heroism before the field was littered with charred bodies and debris on 9/11/01. Even normally liberal voters in that area are somehow consciously aware of the fact that it is conservative leadership, not liberal lip service, that will stand up to the madmen who turned that field into a mass graveyard. And it sits there today as a constant reminder of the perils of weak leadership.

In the door-to-door canvassing I have been doing in my neighborhood on and off over the past few weeks, and the talking I have been doing with people I come into contact with on a daily basis, it is heartening to discover how many people are now familiar with Toomey, as opposed to several months ago when he was a relative nonentity everywhere but in his own 15th congressional district. His radio and television advertisements are making inroads into Specter’s once-considered-insurmountable lead. I will not be able to do so again until after Easter, but for those two weeks between Easter and the 27th, I intend to be hitting the pavement with a vengeance.

I used to foolishly think that our focus needed to be in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas, because that is where the election will be won or lost. But I am beginning to realize that that is not the case. Outside of those two areas, Pennsylvania is an overwhelmingly conservative state. Here in Lancaster County, which is overwhelmingly Republican, it will not necessarily be a matter of changing minds, but rather a matter of getting out the vote in the normally low-voter-turnout primary.

To my mind, the debate on Sunday night was a non-event. It simply amounted to an unending series of accusations hurled from one candidate to the other (and then denied by the opposition). Of course the truth was on Toomey’s side, but, for those who were watching the debate with little knowledge of that fact, who was being truthful and who was lying was not discernable (unless one took into account the fact that Specter read a significant portion of his ‘talking points’ from prepared notes, while Toomey spoke plainly and honestly from the heart).

The SurveyUSA line graph included in the article from which this is excerpted is a sight to behold. Having begun wide apart, it appears that the Specter and Toomey support lines will inevitably intersect . The question is, do we have the time to see to it that they do?

What I am surprised to see in this poll in that Toomey is already leading in the 18-34 age group, and it is a virtual dead heat in the 35-49 age group. It is when you consider those above the age of 50 that Specter still has a commanding lead. Also, Toomey has already caught up to Specter among all males who are likely to vote, but is still lagging dramatically among likely female voters. I am experiencing one of those rare instances in which I am thoroughly ashamed to be a 50+ female. :) (*sigh* )

I, for one, will have a very difficult time getting over the fact that President Bush and Rick Santorum not only endorsed Specter (no doubt out of what they consider to be political protocol), but are also appearing in huge numbers of radio and television adds proclaiming his integrity-laden leadership. Had they both endorsed Toomey, or at least remained neutral, this election would be in the bag. In this respect, they are both outright traitors to the conservative movement.

Our esteemed (*cough*) Bucknell University once again proved just yesterday that it believes in free speech, so long as the speaker leans left of center. Toomey had been scheduled to give a speech there on Thursday on the topic of ‘civic engagement,’ and he had agreed to leave the current campaign out of his message. But that wasn’t good enough. He has now been barred from giving the speech. And yet Ralph Nader (seems to me he’s a candidate for something too?) is still being allowed to give the commencement address next month (and is being paid $13,000 to do so, too). Ain’t (truth and justice in) American higher education grand? As the Bucknell University Conservative Club president observed, Apparently Bucknell’s official version of ‘diversity’ doesn’t include conservative congressmen.

It’ll be interesting to see whether soon-to-be Senator Toomey goes to bat for the university in any future legislation which directly or indirectly involves them. :)

April 27th will prove to be a watershed event in Pennsylvania politics, and will send a clear message to conservatives-in-name-only in Washington DC. The people are indeed becoming wise to your shenanigans. Just ask Arlen Specter (if you can find him).

~ joanie

[pointsal]

ping.....just roll old Arlen out the door
maybe he will wind up as McCain's assistant

[JohnBDay]

There's no way Toomey would lose to that Montgomery County latte liberal.

[Theodore R.]

Did the Saturday debate help Toomey? I would assume that there will be a very low turnout, and the better financed Specter people will organize the majority of the voters coming to the polls. Too many people in PA feel for Specter the way the Louisianians regard John Breaux.

[Jorge]

How does Toomey fare against Hoeffel in the general election? Is he going to be another Brett Schundler and let the Democrats pick up this Senate seat???

That's my impression.
I'm not thrilled with Specter but I think he has a much better chance of winning the general election than Toomey.

[Jorge]

I hope that Specter loses the general - he cannot be allowed to chair the Judiciary Committee.

So you're rooting for the Dems to win in November.

[WOSG]

490 certain voters, and over 100 of them are Specter voting *Conservatives*.

Over 100 of them are Specter supporting *Prolife* voters.

JEEEEZ.

The PROLIFE candidate is TOOMEY.

The CONSERVATIVE candidate is TOOMEY.

And yet the liberal republicans know *exactly* who to vote for: THE LIBERAL CANDIDATE, they are lobsidedly in favor of Specter.

Amazing how that works!

It will be totally nuts if Specter pulls this off. the electorate is a conservative electorate. we cannot let specter win this one and defeat the CONSERVATIVE movement.

[WOSG]

"Is he going to be another Brett Schundler and let the Democrats pick up this Senate seat???"

HUH? Shundler never got the US Senate nod. That was a governors' race, where the NJ GOP stabbed Schundler in the back and failed to support him. Will the liberal Republicans do that to Toomey? Maybe, but Toomey wont count on that, and guys like Santorum prove Toomey can win in PA.

Toomey has all the energy on his side. I hope he is a closer, because unfortunately, the trands require he make up more space to actually win.
but 46% to 40% is encouraging - specter is below the key 50% benchmark, and Toomey is still getting himself known.

http://www.toomeyforsenate.com

[WOSG]

I think Pat Toomey is less vulnerable to a Joe Hoeffel candidacy than is that old RINO Arlen Specter. If Specter wins the primary, I think he'd have a hard time against Hoeffel, since Specter usually loses big outside of the Philly metro area but wins by running even in Philadelphia and piling up huge margins in Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware Counties. That was his formula when he beat Lynn Yeakel (his last strong Democrat challenger) 49%-46% in 1992. But Joe Hoeffel represents Montco and SE Philly in Congress, and Specter can't count on supermajorities in the Philly metro area. So in order to win, Specter would need to win votes from socially conservative but economically liberal blue-collar Democrats in places like Erie and Scranton and Allentown and Wikes-Barre and the blue-collar Pittsburgh suburbs, something that he seems incapable of doing because he has nothing to offer to such voters (why vote for a Democrat-lite when they can vote for the real thing in Hoeffel?). In my honest opinion, the only Republican in the race who can defeat Hoeffel is Pat Toomey,who has been elected and reelected in a blue-collar Democrat district based in Allentown and Bethlehem and whose road to victory was paved by conservative Rick Santorum's two Senate runs (not coincidentally, Santorum represented a blue-collar Democrat Pittsburgh-area district in Congress in the early 1990s).

Once again - brilliant analysis.

Toomey. More electable. The ONLY conservative running. There is no other choice!