Toomey Within 6 Of Specter In New Poll

SurveyUSA ^ | 4/6/04

[Dales]

U.S. Senate, PA GOP Primary

4/6/2004
Specter- 46%
Toomey- 40%
Other/Undecided- 14%
Data Collected 4/3/04 - 4/5/04
Geography- State of Pennsylvania
Sample Population- 490 Certain Voters
Margin of Error- 4.5%
Client- KDKA-TV Pittsburgh WCAU-TV Philadelphia WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre

[zbigreddogz]

I agree that Senator Hoffel would be worse.

I'm somewhat torn, but I'm still saying Toomey in the primary, Specter in the General if it comes to that.

By the looks of things, I'm not sure it's going to though.

[republicanwizard]

What is so hard for you to understand that I'm supporting Specter because it is the request of my President?

[Torie]

Torie, aka the gay and abortion symp (that latter is somewhat to more than somewhat wrong, and the former not entirely but largely correct, but whatever), is supporting Toomey, and the Wizard is suporting Specter, because Bush told him to. Politics is complicated, isn't it?

[republicanwizard]

Just understand that I'm a proud Pennsylvanian, jealous of my state's dignity, saddened by its faded glory.

You know there was once a time in America when Pennsylvania was the second largest state, and Texas was, well, you know.

Now what are we? A bunch of cranky retirees, corrupt urbanites, and unsophisticated rednecks.

[KQQL]

toomey could win........but it will depend who turns out to vote.

[KQQL]

W also said " ISLAM IS PEACE"..

W is not always right.

[demkicker]

Because President Bush supports him.

You're not really falling for that are you? Bush knows the odds favor Specter and is playing it politically safe. I guarantee you he'd prefer Toomey. If for no other reason, Toomey would at least approve his judge nominees! Specter is a disgrace and I can't imagine how any true conservative would vote for him. Sure hope you reconsider.

[NittanyLion]

Specter's still at 46%? It isn't looking too good.

What a shame...hahahaha!

[7.62 x 51mm]

Here in Penna, I've suffered under liberal-GOP-demokkkRAT Arlie Sphincter since moving here and opening my horticulture business in '89, and I want that slimy schmuck gone for good. I'll be voting Toomey & Co in the April 27th primary, and again in November.

[7.62 x 51mm]

That would be west to Pittsburgh, and east to Philly; everything in between is Alabama, and very Conservative. (It's where I live)

[Landru]

Joanie, I know you're really -- *really* -- busy during tax season (& April 15th's only 8 days away! :o) ) but w/could you help a PA citizen HERE with their problem? (~this exchange actually begins on #55 with my reply...)

Seems there's some kind of snag acquiring a Toomy lawn sign by one of your neighbors that I was betting you'd have some advice for rectifying.

...thanks for any/all ideas &/or help, joanie. :^)

[republicanwizard]

Have you studied Islam, KQQL?

[WOSG]

"Now what are we? A bunch of cranky retirees, corrupt surbanites, and unsophisticated rednecks."

Well, if you get Toomey in there, a lot of us will look to PA jealously as the state with the BEST TWO SENATORS IN THE NATION.

I honestly beleive that if Toomey wins, Santorum could be a future majority leader. A Specter win though would be an anchor around his neck.

JMHO.

[WOSG]

"What is so hard for you to understand that I'm supporting Specter because it is the request of my President?"

Because I've seen with my own eyes how the "establishment" Republican party sticks it to the conservatives and it boomerangs back and *hurts* the party and conservatives.

Here in Texas our oh-so-wonderful Governor Perry has endorsed left and right... literally: He endorsed a candidate named Green to take on an independent conservative Justice, Smith. Smith's crime? He beat a Perry appointed RINO/liberal judge 2 years ago. Perry clearly put *power* ahead of conservative *principles* here. What would a principled conservative do? Vote Smith. And yet numbed voters (like yourself) did the 'sheeple' thing and followed Perry's endorsement. In the process, they got confused and a liberal Democrat named Green *who didnt even campaign* beat out a great conservative opponent, Garcia. It was a travesty.

So thanks to Perry, two good conservative judges were defeated.

so now you want to tell me how great and wonderful it is that our "conservative" President is endorsing 42% ACU rated Specter over 95% rated Toomey, and how endorsements mean more than the plain facts of Specter's liberal record?

GOPwiz, try to learn to think for yourself. The President has made some decisions we all can find a fault with; but I dont fault him for endorsing Specter.
The President had to suffer in 2001 while Specter worked a deal to gut the Presidents tax cut proposal. Had Specter got his way, the tax cuts would have been a feeble affair the economy would be far worse, and we'd be talking of G W Bush following his father as a one-termer. Yet GWB sticks by the back-stabber Specter because he is an incumbent with an "R" after his name. The President needs every GOP Senator he can get and is not going to go out of his way to antagonize an incumbent. It's politics.

It's *also* politics for you to think for yourself and not be beholden to zombified loyalty. Think for yourself and vote what is truly best for yourself, conservatives, Republicans and PA. I am sure the right answer is Toomey.

[bmwcyle]

God Help Pat!

[WOSG]

IMHO, any good political analyst who looks at how poorly Specter did in 1992 - under 50%, he got a pass in 1998 - and how he is flailing right now in his own party primary can see his support is a mile wide and an inch thick. That's a recipe for being defeated in an upset even if he squeaks through now. So I think you are being the good GOP political analyst here. The best horse to bet on winning in Nov is Toomey.

And besides, one doesnt have to be hard core pro-life to think Specter was wrong to "Bork" Robert Bork and other conservative judges (like Jeff Sessions). JMHO.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Specter won those votes in 1998. Please be accurate with the facts."

---

In 1998, Specter did not face a well-financed Democrat challenge, so it is silly to even look at those numbers. So let's look at the 1992 election, the last time Specter faced a strong challenge.

Specter won with 49.10% in the state, to Lynn Yeakel's 46.33%. Specter was below 50% overall even though he received 39.34% of the vote in Philadelphia (source: http://www.seventy.org/stats/1992GeneralResults.htm), which is a ridiculously high percentage for a "Republican" in a city in which Clinton beat George H.W. Bush by 68.16% to 20.90% in 1992 and in which Gore beat George W. Bush by 80.04% to 17.99% in 2000. It is risible to presume that Specter would be able to win such a high percentage in Philly this time around, since (i) Philadelphia has trended even more Democrat than it was in 1992, (ii) there is more political polarization today than back then, so there is less ticket-splitting among Philadelphia Democrats, and (iii) Joe Hoeffel is from Abington Township, just across the Montgomery County border, and represents most of Northeast Philadelphia (which is the least heavily RAT part of the city) in Congress. The same holds true in the close-in Philadelphia suburbs of Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties, in which Specter won 54.40%, 53.17% and 50.72%, respectively, in 1992 (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/sen/PaSen1992.html), but have trended Democrat through the years and in 2000 these counties gave George W. Bush 43.81%, 42.66% and 46.29%, respectively. Outside of Philly and its 3 adjoining suburbs, Arlen Specter got only 49.97% in 1992, a pitiful percentage for a Pennsylvania Republican and much lower than Santorum's totals in his 2 statewide victories or even than Fischer's and Bush's losing statewide races.

Nowadays, because of demographic and political changes in Philadelphia, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties, Republicans can't carry Pennsylvania without getting at least 55% of the vote in the Pittsburgh area and in the "T." And for that, Republicans need to not only turn out their conservative base, but get votes from blue-collar Democrats, who are generally liberal on economic issues but pro-life, pro-gun and pro-military. Arlen Specter can't do either of those things, but Pat Toomey can, as he has proven in his blue-collar Democrat district in the Lehigh Valley. And if Bush carries PA in 2004 (as I think he will), it will be because he will increase his percentages among blue-collar Democrats, not because he can somehow convince pro-abortion, anti-gun and anti-military suburban RINOs to vote for him. While Bush and Toomey can get their share of suburban Philly votes because of issues such as national security, our road to victory in PA in 2004 goes through places like Allentown and Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and Erie and the Pittsburgh suburbs, not through Philadelphia and its RINO-infested close-in suburbs.

So the choice is clear. If Pennsylvania Republicans want to win the 2004 elections, they need to support Pat Toomey in his primary challenge to Arlen Specter. GO, PAT, GO!

[GraniteStateConservative]

Pong!

[WOSG]

AuH2ORepublican:

Once again, you blow me away with your erudition, detail, and precision. You are the JDAM of political analysis!

This needs to be sent to every PA county party chair, so the silliness of Specter being more electable is laid to rest: "If Pennsylvania Republicans want to win the 2004 elections, they need to support Pat Toomey in his primary challenge to Arlen Specter."

oh, and the Cuellar rumors ... he he he ... a win-win for the GOP.

[republicanwizard]

You would have a great point, even if it were not for the fact that 40% of the vote in PA is cast in Philadelphia, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties.

The bottom line is that Specter could still win 40% in Philadelphia, just as Sam Katz did.

I'm not saying Toomey isn't electable. He could win 20% to 25% of the vote in Philadelphia if he tries. He could even win Delaware and Chester Counties if he pushes a pro-market agenda and pro-budget cut agenda. However, if he is going to push guns and abortion in the general, then he will lose.