A Bumper Crop Conservative gains in the Senate look likely

National Review On Line ^ | 4/6/04 | Ramesh Ponnuru

[MNJohnnie]

Conservatives were a majority of the House Republican conference by the mid-1980s; they did not become a majority of the Senate Republican caucus until after the 1994 elections. Even those elections swept in at least as many conviction-less Republican hacks as they did conservative activists such as Rick Santorum and Spence Abraham.

The 2004 Senate Republican candidates are remarkably conservative. Indeed, it is almost certain that the Republican caucus will move rightward even if the party does not win seats this fall. The four seats that are most likely to be lost are currently held by Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Peter Fitzgerald, Lisa Murkowski, and Arlen Specter. If Republicans merely make up for their losses elsewhere, it will be a win for conservatives.

What distinguishes the Republicans' 2004 candidates is not only how many conservatives they are fielding. It is remarkable how many smart, idealistic, policy-oriented conservatives have a serious chance of winning this year. Here are seven such candidates: Herman Cain, Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint, Jack Ryan, Bob Schaeffer, Pat Toomey, and David Vitter. (They are running, respectively, in Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Illinois, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Louisiana.) These candidates don't just have good voting records. They have fought for conservative advances on Social Security reform, health savings accounts, spending cuts, and free trade.

The 2002 Senate elections went very well for conservatives, but the potential in 2004 is in this respect greater. Norm Coleman, Elizabeth Dole, Jim Talent, and John Thune were all pretty conservative candidates. But they were, in general, not as conservative as the 2004 candidates mentioned above: Coleman was against drilling in Alaska, and Thune voted for campaign-finance reform.

A Senate could not be made up wholly of Pat Toomeys, and there are other kinds of conservatives whom the Senate could also use. Mac Collins, who is part of a three-man primary race with Cain and Johnny Isakson, would probably do a lot to help conservatives in the Senate if elected. So would Thune, who is running in South Dakota again. But these candidates would, if elected, do a lot to shake up the Senate.

I can't think of another election year in which as many conservatives ran strong campaigns. In 1992, Bruce Herschensohn of California stood out as the only conservative movement candidate running. (He lost.) In 1996, the great stand-outs were Al Salvi of Illinois and Tim Hutchinson of Arkansas. (Salvi self-destructed that fall, while Hutchinson was elected.) A few conservative favorites ran in 1998, notably Fitzgerald in Illinois and Marc Neumann in Wisconsin. But Neumann ran as a budget-balancing protectionist rather than as a free-trading tax-cutter, and Fitzgerald proved so cautious as a senator that many conservatives felt disillusioned. George Allen was the great conservative success of 2000, an otherwise dismal year for conservatives in Senate elections.

If a few conservative standouts win, and a few more conventional conservative politicians win in places such as North Carolina and Florida, the Senate Republican caucus will look very different — more conservative, and more hard-charging.

Some Republicans are disappointed about recruitment failures this year. Republicans haven't fielded strong challengers to Harry Reid or Byron Dorgan. It's always a shame to leave some on the table. But conservatives have done quite well out of recruitment this year. And the chance to put some of these candidates over the top this fall is one more reason for conservatives to hope that President Bush does well.

[MNJohnnie]

Well this is the best news I heard in a long time. Not only will a Bush Victory help elect more Republican Senators, the Republican Senators elected will be MORE Conservative then the current crop of weakneed Rinos! Bush, More US House seats AND a more Conservative US Senate! Even more reason for us to work hard this election season.

[cripplecreek]

That can't be true, the democrats are winning. Just ask them.

LOL

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[Doctor Stochastic]

The four seats that are most likely to be lost are currently held by Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Peter Fitzgerald, Lisa Murkowski, and Arlen Specter. If Republicans merely make up for their losses elsewhere, it will be a win for conservatives.

More likely, these four seats will be lost and the Democrats will have about a 51-48-1 majority. But I do have good news; the Caucus will be more conservative. Purity without power.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Anybody heard from Marky Dayton since he bought his senate seat ?

[Rodney King]

I wish there was a way in Free Republic to take posts like yours and have them be entered into some kind of a Calender so that after the election it would automatically generate a post as to whether or not you are correct.

[Buggman]

Can we put Jack Ryan in charge of the Intellegence Committee? ;)

[MNJohnnie]

The four seats that are most likely to be lost are currently held by Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Peter Fitzgerald, Lisa Murkowski, and Arlen Specter. If Republicans merely make up for their losses elsewhere, it will be a win for conservatives.
More likely, these four seats will be lost and the Democrats will have about a 51-48-1 majority.

Any credibile support for this assumption? All the election break downs I have seen show a Republican GAIN in the Senate of 2 to 4 seats likely. After all, the Republicans have few seats at risk this cycle then the Democrats. The Democrats have to win 11, the Republican only 6, of the contested races to maintain their 1 seat majority. So what bases do you have for projecting the Democrats are going to win??? Or is it just wishful thinking on your part hmmmmmmm?

But I do have good news; the Caucus will be more conservative. Purity without power.

Source please?

[MNJohnnie]

Anybody heard from Marky Dayton since he bought his senate seat ?


No, unfortunately he isn't up until 2006.

[KriegerGeist]

"Not only will a Bush Victory help elect more Republican Senators, the Republican Senators elected will be MORE Conservative then the current crop of weakneed Rinos!"

Arlen Specter [RINO-PA], Susan Collins [RINO-ME], Olympia Snowe [RINO-E], and in my state: Senator John Warner [RINO-VA]

It would be nice to have these replaced with real-live conservative Senators.

"The four seats that are most likely to be lost are currently held by Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Peter Fitzgerald, Lisa Murkowski, and Arlen Specter..."

When they say 'likely to be lost', do they mean likely to be lost to Democrats? Or be lost to other Republicans? I mean, are they saying these seats should be lost over to Democrats?

Bottom line: I would like to know how many seat 'majority' we can expect to end up with, if any?

[MNJohnnie]

http://www.nationalreview.com/miller/miller200404050849.asp

Before you make any more doom and gloom perdictions you might want to read this article. I used this guy to track the races Nov 2000 and he was off only on 1 race. He expected a 50-50 tie mainly because he predicted Coleman would lose here in MN.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Has he done anything since he was elected ? Anything at all ?

[MNJohnnie]

Has he done anything since he was elected ? Anything at all ?

That is one of the most bewildering things about the Minnesota DFL (Democratic Farm Labor Party) they send up these canidates that promise the new utopia if elected then do NOTHING once they get in office. Think the average working class Democrat would wise up by now.

It is really funny to listen to the local DFL press rag on Coleman for being "too close to the White House" while ingoring Daytons 100% DNC directed voting record. But that's ok, if we can get a good canidate in 2006 we may just pick him off.

[Doctor Stochastic]

My guesses are about 50% correct. If they were better, I'd be in the business. If they were worse, I'd swap the results and be in the business.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Its almost enough to make me want to move back up north.

[princess leah]

That guy that thought we'd be down 51-48 didn't look SOUTH because Georgia, Florida, and a few other states look to be definitely leaning towards GOP pickups from the democratic side? Anyone out there with an updated list?

[kylaka]

Not to mention SOUTH Dakota. Daschle looks like an endangered species. I'll bet he's wishing Thune had won in 2002 these days.

[Vigilanteman]

My take is that Mark Dayton is probably the dimmest male to warm a seat in the U.S. Senate. In terms of sheer lack of brainpower, Pat Murray is undisputably number one. Boxer of California is second. Cantwell of Washington is third. Dayton would arguably have a shot at fourth place, though I think the competition from Feinstein would be rather intense.

I grew up next door to Minnesota. Dayton is a handsome face who couldn't even hold down a job in a successful business started by his father. He's made a career out of running for office. He gets elected only when his opponent (or in 2002, his opponent's son) does something really, really stupid.

However, once in power, he can coast on name recognition alone because he does so little to offend anyone. This, of course, does not include the politically astute minority who is offended by him relaibly voting the liberal party line.

[Rodney King]

LOL. Me too.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is pretty good news. Thing is, how many of these conservatives are fair-trade conservatives? We have too many free-traders as it is.