Electoral College Breakdown 2004, March 31st Update

ECB2004 ^

[paul51]

Better get to work in FL and OH

[reformedliberal]

Latest EC breakdown over here.

[Dan from Michigan]

What's interesting here is that Ohio is to the left of Michigan(which is also in bad shape on jobs) on this map. The only time that happened as far back as I can remember is in 1976 with Ohio going for Carter, and Ford going to Michigan(homer vote).

I think most of that is that Cleveland/Toledo/Youngstown/Warren combined have a smaller population than Detroit alone, not to mention Flint, Muskegon, Saginaw, Bay City, Marquette, Lansing/East Lansing, and Ann Arbor. Ohio has a strong Southern Influence in the Cinci area, and West Michigan(although jobs are hurting bad there) has a strong Dutch conservative influence which goes Republican(Holland/Grand Rapids suburbs). The UP and NE Michigan is similar to West Virginia.

I think the winner of both of these states is going to come down to who can get their people out to vote, and which candidate avoids losing their hardcore left/right voters to Nader/Green or Libertarian/Constitution parties.

[Dan from Michigan]

Dhould have clarified why I think Michigan is usually to the left of Ohio. To put it bluntly, Detroit, the most Democrat big city in the entire country.

[Califelephant]

Is it likely Kerry was up, overall, in the big 17 mid-February? Yes. Was he up by anything approaching 28 points? Not even close.

Like I keep telling my wife, "be skeptical of anything you hear in the major news media, but be particularly skeptical of anything with numbers attached to it -- reporters are notoriously lazy/sloppy/stupid when it comes to statistics, percentages, ecomonomics, etc.

[Keith]

yes....big time labor unions...but this time...will the rank and file follow the leadership...when they haven't, big Republican landslides...

[Keith]

yes....big time labor unions...but this time...will the rank and file follow the leadership...when they haven't, big Republican landslides...

[Dan from Michigan]

Gore the best radio commercial in 2000 that I've ever heard. I heard it on Lansing radio(rock station), but I suspect it was all over the Detroit area. I knew he got him after this. Lee Iacocca did commercials for Bush. Gore came out with "Just an auto worker". Some autoworker came on and ragged on Bush. He said something to the effect on with Kyoto "Either we can make the cars cleaner here with our union members, or we let the JAPANESE do it". It brought back bad memories of the early 90's and Japan/US trade problems, and Bush's dad was subtlely bashed there as well.

Bush had a good radio ad similar to that on taxes I heard on a commute. It was a former cop with a very thick blue collar South Boston accent bashing Kerry's record.

[rhinohunter]

Any democrat money spent in the state will be in the 4th and 6th district races.

They will also spend some $ trying to knock off Ann in the 3rd. They will fail as usual.

[.cnI redruM]

So Mi and Wv decide election 2004. Probably good news for the Dems. Bush will have to work harder than some people had originally thought.

[Political Junkie Too]

Monte Carlo Simulations:

From the perspective of the probability of Bush winning and anchoring on Tossup, I use a progressive increase where each category is twice the prior. Slight=+-5%, Lean=+-10%, Strong=+-20%, Safe=+-40%.

This results in the following probability scale:

Safe Bush=90%
Strong Bush=70%
Lean Bush=60%
Slight Bush=55%
Tossup=50%
Slight Kerry=45%
Lean Kerry=40%
Strong Kerry=30%
Safe Kerry=10%

My Monte Carlo results based on this week's movements:

Electoral Vote Trends
based on 100,000 simulated elections

Date	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes	Probability Of Winning
2/23/2004	280	258	57.29%
2/29/2004	283	255	59.20%
3/7/2004	281	257	57.85%
3/14/2004	281	257	57.84%
3/17/2004	283	255	59.68%
3/24/2004	283	255	59.31%
3/31/2004	286	252	62.22%

[boris]

"Maryland looks too dark, too."

Not at all. I was born there. MD is as lost as CA, NY, and Mass. Period.

--Boris

[Republic Rocker]

i like home brewed predictions with off beat formulas...Kinda like my brackets in March Madness!

Two thoughts.......

I have Bush with 274..........

And I cant figure out why Florida would be leaning Kerry.....? A "Northerner", Bush does well with older pollsters and gave them their drug discount, Jeb "FRICKIN" Bush is running the state with great fiscal numbers as well as the best employed state in the union....! So you are telling me Florida is leaning towards a Kerry~Bin Laden 04 ticket!???

[Modernman]

Ping.

[RebelBanker]

Boris,

Ordinarily, I would say the People's Democratic State of Maryland is almost as certain as DC to go for the Dem candidate. However, a recent poll showed Bush pulling almost within the margin of error to Kerry. I am hoping that the Dems feel the need to spend some campaign cash here to shore up the base. That money would have to be drawn from another race, so (even if the PDS of MD goes for Kerry) a closer contest could do some good somewhere else.

Then again we elected a Republican governor because the Dem candidate was such a loser, so I suppose miracles do happen.

[Political Junkie Too]

And I cant figure out why Florida would be leaning Kerry.....?

You'd have to read through Dales' postings to find the rationale for Florida. I just report the numbers I find here.

I was surprised, too, given the Republican leaning of the legislature and the governor. However, the people of the state did split in 2000, although they rejected McBride in 2002. It's hard to say how the New York transplants in South Florida will go in 2004. Personally, I don't think anybody expected Florida to be the battleground of 2000. In fact, it wasn't really Florida's doing, it was Tennessee's and Arkansas' doing -- Florida backed into the battleground. I don't expect to see Florida do the same thing this time around, even though the Democrats will try to evoke some retribution angle there.

We'll see. Maybe the people are tired of Bush as gov, but with jobs increasing there and low taxes, they'd be throwing out the baby with the bathwater if they succumb to national political pressures to their own detriment. Still, the season is young and I expect to see a lot of swings in these predictions between now and the conventions. After that, I think the numbers will settle into a trend.

I'm just basically calibrating my tool right now.

-PJ

[miltonim]

Thank you.

[republicanwizard]

Read the job numbers that came out from the BLS this morning. Kerry has the same change in Florida that an ice cube has in August.

[steveegg]

Self-ping for further reading.

[BroncosFan]

I respect the fact that this guy realizes his NJ poll showing Bush up is probably screwy. Also, I think Wash state will be very close and Bush could win it.