[Political Junkie Too]

And I cant figure out why Florida would be leaning Kerry.....?

You'd have to read through Dales' postings to find the rationale for Florida. I just report the numbers I find here.

I was surprised, too, given the Republican leaning of the legislature and the governor. However, the people of the state did split in 2000, although they rejected McBride in 2002. It's hard to say how the New York transplants in South Florida will go in 2004. Personally, I don't think anybody expected Florida to be the battleground of 2000. In fact, it wasn't really Florida's doing, it was Tennessee's and Arkansas' doing -- Florida backed into the battleground. I don't expect to see Florida do the same thing this time around, even though the Democrats will try to evoke some retribution angle there.

We'll see. Maybe the people are tired of Bush as gov, but with jobs increasing there and low taxes, they'd be throwing out the baby with the bathwater if they succumb to national political pressures to their own detriment. Still, the season is young and I expect to see a lot of swings in these predictions between now and the conventions. After that, I think the numbers will settle into a trend.

I'm just basically calibrating my tool right now.

-PJ

[republicanwizard]

Read the job numbers that came out from the BLS this morning. Kerry has the same change in Florida that an ice cube has in August.

[TomEwall]

New registrations have been more Rep. The state is doing very well economically. Lieberman isn't on the ticket. Bush has been very pro-Israel. The hispanics, a group which is likely growing, is Republican. Kerry isn't a Southerner. The Rep grass roots organization, wary of what happened in 2000, is making a more conerted effort to get out the vote.

I don't think Kerry is expecting to much from Florida. Everything is pointing Bush's way there. His strategy, I think, is to take all the Gore states plus Ohio.