U.S. Will Give Cold Fusion Second Look, After 15 Years

NY Times ^ | March 25, 2004 | KENNETH CHANG

[neverdem]

Cold fusion, briefly hailed as the silver-bullet solution to the world's energy problems and since discarded to the same bin of quackery as paranormal phenomena and perpetual motion machines, will soon get a new hearing from Washington.

Despite being pushed to the fringes of physics, cold fusion has continued to be worked on by a small group of scientists, and they say their figures unambiguously verify the original report, that energy can be generated simply by running an electrical current through a jar of water.

Last fall, cold fusion scientists asked the Energy Department to take a second look at the process, and last week, the department agreed.

No public announcement was made. A British magazine, New Scientist, first reported the news this week, and Dr. James F. Decker, deputy director of the science office in the Energy Department, confirmed it in an e-mail interview.

"It was my personal judgment that their request for a review was reasonable," Dr. Decker said.

For advocates of cold fusion, the new review brings them to the cusp of vindication after years of dismissive ridicule.

"I am absolutely delighted that the D.O.E. is finally going to do the right thing," Dr. Eugene F. Mallove, editor of Infinite Energy magazine, said. "There can be no other conclusion than a major new window has opened on physics."

The research is too preliminary to determine whether cold fusion, even if real, will live up to its initial billing as a cheap, bountiful source of energy, said Dr. Peter Hagelstein, a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has been working on a theory to explain how the process works. Experiments have generated small amounts of energy, from a fraction of a watt to a few watts.

Still, Dr. Hagelstein added, "I definitely think it has potential for commercial energy production."

Dr. Decker said the scientists, not yet chosen, would probably spend a few days listening to presentations and then offer their thoughts individually. The review panel will not conduct experiments, he said.

"What's on the table is a fairly straightforward question, is there science here or not?" Dr. Hagelstein said. "Most fundamental to this is to get the taint associated with the field hopefully removed."

Fusion, the process that powers the Sun, combines hydrogen atoms, releasing energy as a byproduct. In March 1989, Drs. B. Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann, two chemists at the University of Utah, said they had generated fusion in a tabletop experiment using a jar of heavy water, where the water molecules contain a heavier version of hydrogen, deuterium, and two palladium electrodes. A current running through the electrodes pulled deuterium atoms into the electrodes, which somehow generated heat, the scientists said. Dr. Fleischmann speculated that the heat was coming from fusion of the deuterium atoms.

Other scientists trying to reproduce the seemingly simple experiment found the effects fickle and inconsistent. Because cold fusion, if real, cannot be explained by current theories, the inconsistent results convinced most scientists that it had not occurred. The signs of extra heat, critics said, were experimental mistakes or generated by the current or, perhaps, chemical reactions in the water, but not fusion.

Critics also pointed out that to produce the amount of heat reported, conventional fusion reactions would throw out lethal amounts of radiation, and they argued that the continued health of Drs. Pons and Fleischmann, as well as other experimenters, was proof that no fusion occurred.

Some cold fusion scientists now say they can produce as much as two to three times more energy than in the electric current. The results are also more reproducible, they say. They add that they have definitely seen fusion byproducts, particularly helium in quantities proportional to the heat generated.

After a conference in August, Dr. Hagelstein wrote to Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, asking for a meeting. Dr. Hagelstein; Dr. Michael McKubre of SRI International in Menlo Park, Calif.; and Dr. David J. Nagel of George Washington University met Dr. Decker on Nov. 6.

"They presented some data and asked for a review of the scientific research that has been conducted," Dr. Decker said. "The scientists who came to see me are from excellent scientific institutions and have excellent credentials."

Scientists working on conventional fusion said cold fusion research had fallen off their radar screens.

"I'm surprised," Dr. Stewart C. Prager, a professor of physics at the University of Wisconsin, said. "I thought most of the cold fusion effort had phased out. I'm just not aware of any physics results that motivated this."

[AFPhys]

Something important and totally incomprehensible is going on in the present day "cold fusion" experiments. I am reminded when I review them of the early superconductivity results and how those were totally "impossible".

There is more in heaven and earth than is dreamt of in your philosophy.

[myself6]

Not true. There are some things that are impossible. The trick is to know what is possible and what isn't.

[AFPhys]

Folks, there's hardly been a discovery in human history that wasn't said impossible before it was proven a reality. ... Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Go for it! Well stated!

[TMSuchman]

There will always be a need for oil. There will be gears that will need to be lubricated, or else they will lock up.

[Diogenesis]

It is WISDOM to know the difference.

BTW, if somethings were not (incorrectly) felt to be "impossible", there would be no real breakthroughs.

[heleny]

I was talking to Alan Cicconi of AC Propulsion a couple of years ago. He's not sure that hybrid cars are at the present time such a big advantage over conventional cars. He says if you made a lightweight car with a small gasline engine, aerodynamic streamlining and high pressure tires you could easily match the mileage of the Japanese hybrids (which in truth don't get the mileage advertised anyway).

The Honda Insight is a 2-seater that weighed about 1600 lbs when it was introduced. The Honda Civic Hybrid is designed to appeal to more drivers because it is more similar to a regular Civic. I don't know much about the Toyota Prius except that it did not have much power when it was introduced.

The 2004 Honda Civic Hybrid (Continuous variable transmission) is supposed to get 47 mpg city, 48 mpg highway.
It has a 1339 cc engine and 93 horsepower (at 5700 rpm) and 13 hp from the electric motor.
It weighs 2749 lbs and starts just under $20,000.
In comparison, the 2004 regular 4-speed automatic Civic LX (mid-level Civic) is supposed to get 29 mpg city, 38 mpg highway.
It has a 1668 cc engine and 115 hp at 6100 rpm.
It weighs 2606 lbs, starts around $16,000, and has the same size tires and very similar body.

Several years ago, during the 1995-2000 body design, Honda offered a Civic HX, which had a continuous-variable transmission (CVT). It got 43 mpg highway, compared with 35 mpg highway for a 4-speed automatic transmission, which had a 1590 cc engine with 106 hp, and weighed about 1500 lbs.

The CVT probably contributes to the increased highway gas mileage in the current Civic Hybrid more than the hybrid technology does.

Simple math shows that a few hybrid compact cars on the roads will not noticeably offset the gas mileage for heavier or inefficient cars.
For 100 city miles, a hybrid (47mpg) uses 2 gallons, while an Excursion or Escalade (12mpg) uses 8; overall for the two, you get 20 mpg, not the numerical average of their mpg's; but, there aren't as many hybrids compact cars as there are heavier trucks, and there never will be, because the compact cars are not as versatile.

Given the higher price of the hybrid cars, the marginal gas improvement, the shorter lifetime, and the environmental pollution from batteries, hybrid cars don't seem ideal at this time.

The overall gas mileage of the nation would improve significantly by improving traffic flow (or reducing jams). This requires that transportation money be spent on freeways instead of mass transit.

[Semi Civil Servant]

Cold fusion, briefly hailed as the silver-bullet solution to the world's energy problems and since discarded to the same bin of quackery as honest New York Times reporting, will soon get a new hearing from Washington.

[Diogenesis]

"... after a few more flashes in the pan, we shall hear very little more of Edison or his
electric lamp. Every claim he makes has been tested and proved impracticable."
[New York Times, January 16, 1880]

"Professor Goddard ... does not know the relation of action to reaction ... he only
seems to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in our high schools"
[New York Times, January 13, 1920]

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."
[Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre]

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
[Thomas Watson, chairman IBM, 1943]

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
[Ken Olson, Chairman and founder Digital Equipment Corp., 1977]

"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
[Bill Gates, 1981]

[BMiles2112]

If you were to take the Insight and remove the gas engine, electric motor, batteries, and everything else involved with the hybrid system, then replace it with a 1.5L turbodiesel, you'd get as least as many mpg, with less cost, and fewer things that could go wrong. It seems that they went the hybrid route because it makes certain groups happy when electric motors are involved in propulsion.

[patriot_wes]

U.S. Will Give Cold Fusion Second Look, After 15 Years

A last....Pons Revenge!

[Oberon]

Wait a minute...if you need a bucket of deuterium to make this work, doesn't this put us back to square one? I mean, you'd have to make enough energy out of the process to make it worth your bucket of deuterium. That's a high bar to jump over.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

"I am absolutely delighted that the D.O.E. is finally going to do the right thing," Dr. Eugene F. Mallove, editor of Infinite Energy magazine, said. "There can be no other conclusion than a major new window has opened on physics."

This guy is full of crap. He implies that the DoE was somehow being unreasonable all these years. When you present something like cold fusion to the world, you better have your ducks in a row because scientists everywhere will attempt to reproduce the experiment. When they couldn't, the only possible conclusion possible was that the "scientists" were lying or incompetent.

Drs. B. Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann have had over 10 years to prove that, yes indeed, their experiment is good and it works. So where have they been? What have they been doing?

If cold fusion actually worked, Pons and Fleischmann would be richer than Bill Gates right now.

[Oberon]

The 2004 Honda Civic Hybrid (Continuous variable transmission) is supposed to get 47 mpg city, 48 mpg highway. It has a 1339 cc engine and 93 horsepower (at 5700 rpm) and 13 hp from the electric motor. It weighs 2749 lbs and starts just under $20,000.

The VW Golf deisel with a five-speed was doing better than this, cheaper than this, two decades ago. Reliability? Well, that's another story...

[js1138]

I have one of those in my kitchen, It's powered by coffee beans.

[Diogenesis]

My friend, Excuse_My_Bellicosity, it has been 15 years.

Martin Fleischman appeared at the Cambridge MA meeting in 8/03
Stan Pons' children were beaten by the children of misinformed (and apparently violent) skeptics,
and he gave up his US citizenship and moved to France to continue his R&D in peace.

Two problems were that they made CF appear too easy to achieve,
and they did not understand enough about it.

[expatpat]

....HYBRID cars getting 50-60 mpg, their batteries getting cheaper and cheaper (which will also help electric car sales), and FUEL CELLS coming online soon....

Hardly anyone buys the cars, and fuel cells have been 'coming online' for 40 years (researchers at Tyco were working on them in the early 60's).

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

"I am absolutely delighted that the D.O.E. is finally going to do the right thing," Dr. Eugene F. Mallove, editor of Infinite Energy magazine, said.

Whatever, dude. It's not DoE's job to validate every pie-in-the-sky experiment that crosses the director's desk. If cold fusion is such a great thing, feel free to present it at the next major physics convention. Or do your colleagues know something we don't?

[fourdeuce82d]

I'm not sure what compels people to trash efforts to find new discoveries, but it seems to be a whole force of nature all it's own.

I think that depends on where/when you're talking about- during the latter part of the 1800s people experienced and looked forward to all kinds of developments. And had to deal with all kinds of charlatans as well.

"They" laughed at galileo, they laughed at Edison, and they laughed at Abner Snerdfocker, Melvin Pudwhistle, and Steven Puckphitz as well.

Don't remember them? That's because they were idiots, and their claims didn't pan out.

Abner finally agreed even if you flapped your arms really, really hard...you still weren't going to fly.

And no, Melvin's idea about using pictures of fire to warm a house was, in hindsight, kind of silly. Doesn't excuse the laughter of his neighbors in Anchorage as the EMTs carted his frozen body out of his home, but it was kind of goofy.

The less said about mr. Puckphizz's idea about using poison ivy poultuices to treat hemorhoids the better.

So just because people laugh at someone...it doesn't make them Galileo. They may actually be idiots.

Don't know if that is the case here, but it appears that a pretty big rewrite physics would be necessary for this to be true.

I don't begrudge anyone using their time/resources to pursue this- but I supect years from now it will be thought of the same way we think of "N-Rays" "Poly water" and lysenkoism.

Time will tell

[PatrickHenry]

"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."
-- Arthur C. Clarke (Clarke's First Law)

"When, however, the lay public rallies round an idea that is denounced by distinguished but elderly scientists and supports that idea with great fervor and emotion — the distinguished but elderly scientists are then, after all, probably right."
Isaac Asimov's Corollary to Clarke's Law

[boris]

"He says if you made a lightweight car with a small gasline engine, aerodynamic streamlining and high pressure tires you could easily match the mileage of the Japanese hybrids (which in truth don't get the mileage advertised anyway)."

Interesting stuff, gasline. Hard to find.