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By Syed Saleem Shahzad

Asia Times (Hong Kong)

March 11, 2004

KARACHI - In a clear indication that the spring offensive against suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border will be launched soon, United States Secretary of State Colin Powell is scheduled to arrive in Pakistan on March 17, a visit that comes on the heels of British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw's own journey to Islamabad last week. After Powell's trip, US Chief of Central Command General John Abizaid will also make his way to Pakistan.

These visits are all in preparation for the upcoming "game", one that will have broad consequences for the region. At a time when rebellious feelings are quickly taking root in the Pakistani tribal regions of South and North Waziristan - tribal leaders have unanimously demanded the withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the tribal areas - plans for the new operation are nearing their final stages.

An operation outline

The scope of the upcoming operation is far broader in both Afghanistan and Pakistan than it has been in the past, and is likely to be launched in April, according to high-level sources that spoke to Asia Times Online. An important development has already taken place on the Afghan front: access to Tora Bora has been restricted by international and Afghan military forces. While this piece of information made news around the globe, what is little known is that there is a truce between local Afghan military bosses in Jalalabad and local warlords associated with Hezb-i-Islami, the Afghanistan rebel group led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar that is spearheading the Afghan resistance movement.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the border in Pakistan's Khyber agency and surrounding areas, it is alleged that Osama bin Laden built bunkers and tunnels, echoing the path he took in the Tora Bora mountains, from where he escaped advancing US-led troops in early 2002 after the fall of the Taliban. Sources maintain that if bin Laden is not arrested in Khyber agency, it is unlikely he will be located as it is the only static refuge besides Tora. At the same time, the region is where guerrilla fighters take refuge for longer periods to plan their next guerrilla attack. This information is very much known to US authorities, which is why Khyber agency is one of the next targets for the operation against al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

It is also believed that the spring operations will cover not only Afghan and the Pakistani tribal areas, but the city centers of both countries. The high-level sources say that the US is working to paralyze all possible support systems to the Taliban and al-Qaeda from cities in Pakistan.

In the next sweep, the US is expected to play an active role within Pakistan; however, the mission has been kept secret as this is a very sensitive issue in the country. The owners of major Pakistani press organizations have already been warned against coverage of events showing US involvement in Pakistan. And for foreign media correspondents, new proposals are under review to restrict their movements, as well as monitor their writing.

Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf, who faces significant domestic political pressure against US deployments in Pakistan, has repeatedly denied the presence of US troops.

Putting on the pressure

The US has already pressured Pakistan to take all the necessary steps to ensure the spring operation will be a success. In an extraordinary development highlighting the intricacies of the operation, the Corps Commander in Peshawar, Lieutenant-General Ali Jan Orakzai, has retired a month prematurely. Major General Safdar Hussain will take his place. Sources from Peshawar maintain that Orakzai will be installed as governor of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province in compensation for his premature retirement.

Orakzai has been in Washington's bad books since last year, when he visited the US and openly condemned the behavior of US authorities towards Pakistanis. Orakzai was an official guest, but was forced to go through a plethora of screenings and checks at the immigration counter on his arrival. As well as complaining about this particular incident, Orakzai spoke against what he felt was discriminatory behavior against Pakistanis at functions hosted by the Pakistani embassy in the US.

These changes in command come amid word that US authorities have made a special request: in the next phase of operations, all Pashtun officers should be separated from those officers actually involved in the spring offensive, whose names would be vetted by US authorities. (Pashtuns are generally sympathetic to the ethnic Pashtun Taliban.)

Orakzai is a Pashtun. Meanwhile, the new corps commander, Hussain, is from Punjab and enjoys good relations with US authorities. Previously posted in Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) , where he coordinated with US forces, Hussain is highly knowledgeable about the north western Pakistani region. Traditionally, the Pakistan army has been dominated by Punjabi and Pashtun officers, but for the past two years Pashtun officers have been greatly cut to size. In recent promotions, 18 brigadiers were elevated to the position of major-general, while only one Pashtun was given the same title.

Elsewhere, a list of Pakistan's most-wanted terrorists has been compiled by a newly formed group called the Special Investigation Cell. This group is headed by a Federal Investigation Agency director from the Pakistani side and by a Central Intelligence Agency official from the US side. As per the list, several top jihadis were recently picked up and interrogated. These events were not reported in the media.

This correspondent spoke with one of the men picked up, who once belonged to the banned Lashkar-i-Taiba and who is now an inactive office bearer. He was previously picked up by ISI and US Federal Bureau of Investigation officials and jointly and separately interrogated by these agencies, which wanted to know the whereabouts of Arab fighters hiding in the port city of Karachi.

The man was given clearance after several days of interrogation, but was picked up again for the same reason, and once again set free after he went through several stages of screenings and investigations. He has been told that since he is on the US's most-wanted list, he will be in contact with these agencies in the future.

Under the new operation, many big names associated with the Jamaat-i-Islami, the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (Fazalur Rehman) , Jaish-i-Mohammed and the Lashkar-i-Taiba are expected to be interrogated. The names include Maulana Masood Azhar and Abdullah Shah Mazhar, two top-ranking jihadis.

At the same time, all those who previously fought alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan, since released from Afghan jails, will be required to report weekly to their local Afghan police stations and will occasionally be picked up by intelligence agencies for screening. Those Pakistanis released from Afghan jails will not be set free by Pakistani authorities and will be dealt with under a stringent legal clause.

From Kabul to Jalalabad and from Khyber agency to Karachi, an infrastructure is being put in place, all of which is being supervised by US authorities, to make the spring operations a success. The depth of these plans suggests that the battlefields will heat up in the near future, on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border. But whether these steps will actually help the US catch Osama remains the million-dollar question.