[Lewis2]

I've been lurking hereabouts for quite a while now, and this seemed like as good a place as any to jump in.

I would tend to agree with Iron Eagle's perspective, i.e., the probablility that terrorist have smuggled any significant number of nuclear bombs into the US is extremely low. So far.

The current existence of the oft mentioned "Ex-Soviet suitecase nukes" is in itself highly unlikely. For those of you interested in an extremely thoughtful, well-researched study on suitcase nukes, let me refer you to these excellent open-source papers at the Monterey Intitute of Interenational Studies:

http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/020923.htm
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/040213.htm

As to if there are currently *any* nuclear weapons hidden within the US, I am rather less certain these days than I once was. Last year when NorthCom decided to include a small nuclear explosion in the planning for the recent United Defense 04 excercise scenario, there was a fair amount of eyeball roling. Some wags predicted that UD05 would probably include an alien landing, because the nuke idea was so improbable.

But they did it anyway, and since then the revelations about Mr. Khan's Atomic Walmmart have caused many people to completely re-assess the risk from smuggled nuclear weapons, and the UD04 scenario doesn't seem nearly as silly now as it did a year ago. Unfortunately, the idea has moved solidly from impossible to unlikely. So far. But the atomic genie is absolutely out of the bottle, and I suspect that the lengthy success of Mr. Khan's enterprise will go down as one of the greatest failures of intelligence and/or western political will in history.

So: Ex-soviet suitcase nukes? Probably nothing to worry about now, except perhaps as ready made dirty bombs. But IMHO, the existence (and possibly even presence) of 1-3 small nuclear bombs built with Pakistani or North Korean expertise and sold as "turn key" units to extremists just isn't as outlandish an idea now as it was a year ago. And believe me: 1 or 2 well-located bombs would be enough to destroy the US economy for a decade. Which is of course where our real international strength is.

I consider "dirty bombs" a much greater likelihood, and nearly as great a threat to the US/world economy. Mainly because the current conventional wisdom is that there is "no safe level" of exposure to radiation. Under that standard, even a small dirty bomb in an important area could make it unusable for many years. However in reality, there probably *is* a safe exposure level, i.e., low enough that constant exposure to it would still kill you, but it would take 200 years. But for now, no one is suggesting revisitng these zero-tolerance guidelines adopted during the No Nukes movements of the 70's and 80's. The political cost is too great, and low-tech people are simply too frightened of radiation of any kind. However if there is a Dirty Bomb set off, don't be surprised if the USG suddenly unveils new "standards" for safe exposure. They are the insurer of last resort, remember, and they (i.e., *you*) can't pay for the loss of, say, lower Manhattan and the health maintainance of a million people for 50 years. They would have no choice but to move the goal posts. And they would probably be right, bizarrely enough. Oh: and do the bad guys have the wherewithal to build and employ a dirty bomb? Take a look at this other table of data from the site mentioned above, showing all the reported instances where the Bad Guys have tried to aquire radionucleids:

http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/sjm_cht.htm

It's been a long day, and I'm beginning to ramble. Sorry about that. I guess I just don't want folks to get too worked up about a Nuke in every city. It just isn't very likely at this point. And as others have mentioned, if they had them, why haven't they used them? (Every January, I watch the State of the Union Address with my heart in my throat.) But so far, so good.... ;)

[TexKat]

Welcome aboard Lewis2. Glad you decided to stop lurking and started to participate in this madness.

Thanks for the links and your input.

[Iron Eagle]

Welcome out from the shadows! You analysis is excellent, and I don't think anyone, anywhere, would deny that there may be a device on U.S. soil. In fact, The Bush administration has such a great record of success since 9/11, but they don't dare blare the trumpet for fear it will provoke some sort of response. (Interesting political quandry -- instead they discuss number of AQ captured or killed, but they never say look, no attacks.)

No one knows for sure, but it seems that a dirty bomb is far more likely than a small tactical nuke.

let's hope we are right on this.

[Labyrinthos]

Welcome aboard. Very nice first post. I wish other newbies would adopt your style.

[Velveeta]

Great post, welcome to FR.

[Indie]

Welcome to FR Lewis!! It only takes one or two to "kill" us economically. Agreed.

[WestCoastGal]

Good post, the Monterey Institute has a lot of very interesting information. Welcome to the group, you will be hooked now and we look forward to more posts from you. :-)

[JustPiper]

Ah, a voice of logic and reason! why did you wait so long to post Lewis? Welcome out ;)

[Oorang]

Welcome Lewis2 and thanks for the input.

[brutlogic]

1st time for me. I am not an expert and I have no source. What I say comes from the gut. I believe we have less to worry about today than we did prior to going into Iraq and a good deal less than we did prior to 911. If we allow ourselves to get too worked up over these low life’s, they have achieved their objective. All these #@$%# understand is force. Just like a school yard bully, when they see someone stand up to them they're not so tough. Watching the Oscars last night I saw some good examples of those more dangerous to our survival than AQ could ever be. Idiots with mush for brains who make way too much for simply entertaining us. Some have the nerve to get political and tell me what to think. Only way to break the USA is from within by changing the meaning of words until what is good sounds bad and what is bad sounds good.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Welcome to the group.

You ask why haven't they used them.

It is simple the time has not been right.

It does no good to "wipe out a city", think of them as insurance.

When enough immigrants are here to 'rule" us, we will see the "rest of the story".

They will be the final take over tool.

My opinion.

Ruth