Posted on 02/17/2004 6:02:02 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Intel Developer Forum Wed like to welcome Doctor Transformation
By : Tuesday 17 February 2004, 18:13
But once he'd got that stuff out of the way, he confirmed that Nocona, its next generation of Xeons, will have 64-bit address extensions which he described as the worst kept secret in San Francisco. Right.
Steve Ballmer said in a video that Microsoft was very excited by the introduction of 64 bit extensions. People would continue to run their existing applications in 32-bit. This adds versatility and scaleability for workstations and servers.
There was already a beta of Microsoft Windows for Intel's 64-bit extensions.
Intel will introduce 64-bit extensions for desktop Prescotts later in the year and for Potomac next year.
Barrett didn't say whether the technology was compatible with AMD 64. He'll be asked that in the Q&A following his keynote, no doubt.
Barrett showed off software that takes advantage of the 64-32 bit extensions. The 64-bit extensions allow for better levels of detail.
But, before that, Kicking Pat Gelsinger showed Barrett as a young man, said he was dubbed Doctor D, and showed the differences between the past and present then by introducing the distinguished elderly gent.
Governments are making investments in technology. Every business round the world has recognized the power of IT to make business more competitive.
Creating, preserving and accessing content helps to train the next generation, he said.
Theres no place to hide from digital technology, he said.
Companies like Ford were able to shorten their product cycles. The car company uses IT to cut down development of new models from four years to 22 months, said Barrett.
Microprocessors are shipping in unprecedented volumes, he said. This growth is sustained and rational.
Technology is being used to discover the creation of the Universe said Barrett, while Stephen Hawking claimed the Itanium 2 powered his life in a short video he showed.
Dangerous territory. Hawking said it must be boring being god and having nothing left to discover. Hawking is an atheist. We dont know if Barrett is.
Twenty years ago it was exciting to throw out a new bit of silicon without knowing what effect it would have. Now the challenge is to make sure that supporting technologies are there.
He underlined Intels support for the Itanium 2, with 50 OEMs. The Itanium will use multithreading and support PCI Express, he said.
Barrett wheeled out a sharp looking gentleman in suit and tie to say that Morgan Stanley used the Itanium 2 to make its business leaner and meaner.
Barrett demonstrated the LCOS system we described yesterday, and showed a USB connection using Ultra Wideband to transfer data at nearly 500Mbit/sec. Currently it's short range.
He said there are now more wireless lines than phone lines. In Korea and Taiwan, wireless phones are the norm and have showed staggering growth.
WiMax and other wireless networks including 3G and 4G were developing. He said it means that industries impacted by the digital onslaught, such as the music industries. The next generation in the music industry might be quite different.
He showed off an Intel triband design which uses Xscale and has built in 802.11 and Bluetooth, and a digital camera. That would allow users to download music by phone.
Turning to laptops, he demonstrated a machine using the Florence platform, which uses the Dothan Pentium M, including GPRS, Bluetooth, 802.11b/g, an integrated display on the outside of the case. It also has a biometrics/fingerprint sensor.
They do SEEM faster. The Athlon64 and the FX51 can both run more simultaneous threads due to MUCH higher core bandwidth. The intergrated memory controller makes that scalable as well. Over clockers have been DREAMING about a rig like this. Check out Tom's Hardware Guide for what happens when you get spiffy with a liquid cooler for it. Makes the P4 look pitiful.
"Yeah, and there's a guy at Kodak who can tell you just as good a story about why there will always be a market for silver halide film."
Bad example. Kodak, just a month or so ago, was the first big film camera manufacturer to announce a withdrawal from that business to concentrate on the digital camera market. W/r/t their silver halide film operations, I found this:
"In September Kodak unveiled an ambitious new strategy to accelerate its foray into filmless imaging markets. It also acknowledged that chemical-based photography businesses were in irreversible decline."
Never thought it would happen!
No kidding. The numbers are unreal. I started out about 15 years ago with a 10 mhz 286 and a 40 mb hd. Now that had wouldn't be enough ram to write a letter to grandma. We've certainly learned to hog every new addition to our resources.
I also remember reading in EETIMES about 15 years ago that 33-50 mhz was the max they would get out of CMOS. Now we are around 3ghz.
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Speed is so nice!
Yeah, and Intel just announced 64-bit extensions to Xeon. The question is, is the company truly behind it, or is there a sizeable faction that thinks this new-fangled stuff is just a distraction from the main business?
I was at a digital imaging conference about ten years ago. My company had several meetings with the Kodak guys, who were also there. I visited their shop, which was basically an R&D lab. They described a huge amount of internal strife within the company over whether Kodak should get into digital imaging. They of course were for it, because they were from the digital imaging division. And they had the blessing of the CEO to proceed. But they were many people, in powerful positions, at Kodak who insisted that "digital imaging" was a fad, and that Kodak should not be wasting time on it.
My point is that, in that situation, a CEO has to keep those guys happy too, because they are the ones who are paying the bills right now. So even though he might be totally behind the effort to "go digital," he will throw those guys bones, like pouring more money into research on silver halide film, and funding development of still more film-based consumer-grade cameras, even though he knows it's probably a waste of money.
Remember the Apple /// and the Apple ][ GS? Here was Jobs personally heading up the Macintosh effort, his name was practically on the building, and he still let the Apple ][ guys have another couple rounds of fun before squashing that thing.
Big companies always have this problem of competing interests inside. That's why they frequently lose huge amounts of market share (and sometimes all of it) to total upstarts. Why did Barnes and Noble wait as long as they did before reacting to Amazon.com? Because the company was totally dependent at the time on selling books through retail stores, and the store managers saw every book sold through the web as a dollar out of their hides. It's almost certain that there were some in there who warned that "we can't let this guy Bezos achieve escape velocity; if he does, we'll never be able to knock him off." But they did exactly that, and Amazon now has Barnes-and-Noble-class economies of scale. B&N can compete with them, but they can't wipe the floor with them, the way they could have if they had moved quickly.
This is exactly what Intel is going through. AMD is a punk, but if Intel allows it to achieve escape velocity with Opteron and Athlon-64, Intel could lose the server business, and ultimately the desktops as well when cheap machines migrate to 64-bit chips as the prices drop. Intel needs to head this off at the pass. Adding 64-bit addressing to a 32-bit chip tells the market that Intel still doesn't "get it." What they really want to do is fool around with Itanium some more. Well, people have machines to build, and market share to gain, and they can't afford to wait around until Intel gets smart. I'll bet this announcement results in a huge round of design wins for AMD. People have now seen the Intel response. If that was it, it's AMD for sure.
You are apparently not understanding my point. Serious students of the imaging business -- including many people within Kodak -- saw this coming a lot sooner than a month ago. They were having this argument inside Kodak in 1991.
I agree it would have made no sense to withdraw from the film, or the film camera, business that early. And no one advocated that. Perhaps "last month" is indeed the correct answer to the question "OK, so when do we shoot the damned things?"
The question is, did the company have the pedal all the way to the metal on the digital stuff? Others sure did. Others didn't have to worry about cannibalizing their film business. They could go for Kodak's jugular with all deliberate speed.
OK, so as of last month, Kodak will now proceed with all deiberate speed into the digital imaging market. About time. Here is a link to consumer-grade digital cameras, sorted by "editor's rating." Kodak first appears on the list at #19. They have none of the "top 5 most popular." Is this the Kodak you remember? Or is this a guy who's been asleep at the switch while the 35mm boys (Canon, Minolta, Nikon, etc.) made the technology switch much faster?
I don't fault Kodak for this, because so many other companies have done the same thing. The minicomputer guys are all dead because in their view, every $5,000 "personal computer" was a lost sale on a $50,000 minicomputer. They might struggle against that, but they sure weren't going to help it along. Until it was too late... and now they're dead.
Every digital camera sold was another nail in the coffin of the film business, which is where Kodak made all their money. How badly did they really want to help that along? We know the answer... they were conflicted about it. So now the film business is doomed, just like everybody knew it would be someday, and they don't own the consumer camera business anymore... they let it slip away with half-hearted efforts.
Well, here's Intel doing the same thing. They know 64-bit chips are the future. And they also know that the one they have out there is not doing very well. In their hearts, they understand perfectly why people would prefer a 64-bit chip that natively executes the huge mountain of 32-bit code that's out there. That's a no-brainer. Until yesterday, they were leaving that whole segment (which is probably 80+ per cent of the market) to AMD. And now they come with a half-hearted hack on the x86 whose chief feature is that it doesn't challenge the Itanium. Wrong answer.
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