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Hi All,

I slept off my bug, and as we have a new thread here, I guess I missed some posts. Sorry about that. I am so far behind I may not be able to keep up with this thread for too long . . . so I cut and pasted a Friday "document dump" and maybe someone can play "connect the dots" if they are interested. I would have just posted the links, but the sites have long documents and I am just pulling the relevant sections or articles. I probably won't do this again, but since I have had the benefit of perusing some of the material posted here, I thought I'd return the favor (albeit all at once) . . . you have to read all of this if you want to "put it all together" . . . I'll post the other articles in a bit . . .

I did catch a post questioning who besides China is an offensive nuclear threat. At the risk of appearing to be some trenchcoat-wearing shadowy source blowing smoke in some underground garage a la "All the President's Men" I'd say . . ."follow the weapons" (missiles and WMD) . . . the threat from Iraq may have been more imminent than the world will ever know . . and the threat posed by Iran and North Korea is not properly appreciated by most . . .

I was not exaggerating when I say this is the most dangerous time in modern American history. . .

Yes, Russia is cozy with Iran, but they are not the *hub* of the axis.

If you stand back, the forest can be seen through the trees.

North Korea, Iran, Iraq . . . (where have we heard those three names before?)

"Things to watch in coming months"

Watch the Khan thing unravel in Pakistan and see where it goes

Watch the connections with ISI and AQ come into clearer focus

Watch the timing of 1998 AQ "nuclear fatwa" and Pakistan going nuclear

Watch who facilitated the North Korean-Pakistani transfers.

Watch the development of new North Korean Taepo-Dong (TD-3) ICBMs

Watch the similarity of the TD-3 to the Chinese Dong-Feng ICBM

Watch contingents of North Koreans working years at Iranian missile facilities

Watch evidence emerge that Iraq was trying to buy a North Korean ICBM

Watch the unraveling web unearth covert uranium programs of Iran and North Korea

Fired from North Korea, the TD-2 can hit everything west of a line from Chicago down to El Paso, and the TD-3 (three-stage TD-2) can hit all of US. Fired from Iran or Iraq, the TD-2 can hit east coast cities, TD-3 would cover most of US

missiles or martyrs . . . six of one a half dozen of the other . . .

From the 2001 NIE released days before the "axis of evil" speech . . .

"Most Intelligence Community agencies project that before 2015 the United States most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea and Iran, and possibly from Iraq—barring significant changes in their political orientations—in addition to the longstanding missile forces of Russia and China."

North Korea . . .

"The Taepo Dong-2 in a two-stage ballistic missile configuration could deliver a several-hundred-kg payload up to 10,000 km—sufficient to strike Alaska, Hawaii, and parts of the continental United States. If the North uses a third stage similar to the one used on the Taepo Dong-1 in 1998 in a ballistic missile configuration, then the Taepo Dong-2 could deliver a several-hundred-kg payload up to 15,000 km—sufficient to strike all of North America. A Taepo Dong-2 flight test probably would be conducted as an SLV with a third stage to place a small payload into the same orbit the North Koreans tried to achieve in 1998. "

Iran . . .

"All agencies agree that Iran could attempt to launch an ICBM/SLV about mid-decade, although most agencies believe Iran is likely to take until the last half of the decade to do so. One agency further judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve a successful test of an ICBM before 2015.
Iranian acquisition of complete systems or major subsystems—such as North Korean TD-2 or Russian engines—could accelerate its capability to flight-test an ICBM/SLV.

If Iran were to acquire complete TD-2 systems from North Korea, it could conduct a flight test within a year of delivery, allowing time to construct a launch facility. Iran is unlikely to acquire complete ICBM/SLV systems from Russia."

Iraq . . .

"After observing North Korean missile developments the past few years, Iraq would be more likely to pursue a three-stage TD-2 approach to an SLV or ICBM, which would be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon-sized payload to the United States. Some postulations for potential Iraqi ICBM/SLV concepts and timelines from the beginning of UN prohibition relief include:

If Iraq could buy a TD-2 from North Korea, it could have a launch capability within a year or two of a purchase.

It could develop and test a TD-1-type system within a few years.

If it acquired No Dongs from North Korea, it could test an ICBM within a few years of acquisition by clustering and staging the No Dongs—similar to the clustering of Scuds for the Al Abid SLV.

If Iraq bought TD-2 engines, it could test an ICBM within about five years of the acquisition."

- - from the National Intelligence Estimate, (unclassified) December 2001 (CIA website)

Here's a new wrinkle from the DEBKA guys. Things just got a little more squirrelly....

What the handout did not reveal was that Raad is no ordinary coastal or shipboard projectile but a cruise missile, capable of halting Personal Gulf shipping by blockading the Hormuz Strait. It can also choke off incoming and outgoing sea traffic via the Shatt al-Arb, Iraq’s only exit point for its oil exports and entrance for its vital imports.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly ’s Gulf sources report launching bases for the new missiles are going up at four places on Iran’s Gulf coast: the northern end at Bandar a-Khomeini opposite the mouth of the Shatt al Arb and facing Kuwait and Bahrain, at Bushehr, site of its nuclear reactor, at the big Bandar Abbas naval base and Revolutionary Guards headquarters, and at Bandar e-Lengeh west of Qeshm Island.

From these installations, Iranian missiles will cover the tanker and merchant ship lanes leading into the Persian Gulf from the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden.

A fifth launching base will be located on the small highly-strategic island of Great Tumb situated just north of the Hormuz Strait at the mouth of the Gulf.

According to our military experts, the locations of the new Raad missile bases betray both aggressive intent and determination to defend Iran’s Gulf shore from assault by warships or hostile marine landings. Iran’s military command appears to be preparing the country’s national defenses for an anticipated American attack in the course of 2004 or early 2005.

Good to see you NM!

the threat from Iraq may have been more imminent than the world will ever know . . and the threat posed by Iran and North Korea is not properly appreciated by most

I believe that also and hope the truth comes out soon for this administration deserves it to! And Iran and NK, we all agree with you on this.

Axis of Evil yes!

Who will Paki go nuclear on?

Watch the unraveling web unearth covert uranium programs of Iran and North Korea

What will the US do?

Fired from North Korea, the TD-2 can hit everything west of a line from Chicago down to El Paso, and the TD-3 (three-stage TD-2) can hit all of US. Fired from Iran or Iraq, the TD-2 can hit east coast cities, TD-3 would cover most of US

And how do we combat this?

I've been preaching most of those points for over 2 years now, and I am glad to see someone else has the same overview. I congratulate your astute observations and analysis. Mind if I add a few comments, which combined with your analysis give a full overview of the challenge?

The other half of the coin is the influx of political destabilization brought on by subversion of our political processes by some of the same actors in the form of poloitical donations.

Most of this political destabilization is apparent in organizations like CAIR, MOVE-ON, and the rest of the street protest movements who state they are anti-war, but in reality are anti-US in their views, and heavily infiltrated by Marxist-Islamist factions.

We were talking about the "grey area" the other day. This being defined as the area where ordinary street crime meets the efforts of organized governments and terrorist organizations who are waging war against us in unconventional means.

Signs of the "grey area"

Al-Qaeda and opium sales to finance terror attacks

The Nuclear black market and its ties to organized crime organizations.

Overseas political campaign donations from persons representing hostile goverments/terrorist designed to undermine US sovereignity and cause division /strife

Socialist elements in our government who apparently have an agenda in place that is not well defined, but eventually ends up with them in charge of the country and us as subjects. They will use any upheaval in the politicial landscape to advance their agenda.

Terrorist/Islamist propaganda designed to de-legitimize the United States and Israel

European Socialists who actively support terrorism because they hate America

Globalism- which intends to subject us to global rule and have us overseen by an elite group of socialist leaning UN internationalists who have an un-announced agenda, but probably doesnt include freedom like we enjoy now

We have a lot on our plate, and our generation has to confront this and overcome it for us to survive as a nation and continue to enjoy the freedom we have. If our children are to grow up free, we need to do it now.

"Fired from North Korea, the TD-2 can hit everything west of a line from Chicago down to El Paso, and the TD-3 (three-stage TD-2) can hit all of US. Fired from Iran or Iraq, the TD-2 can hit east coast cities, TD-3 would cover most of US"

This statement is according to every source I can find grossly in error.

I despise the North Korean threat, and believe the DPRK's benefactors in Moscow ((Yes, it was immediately following a visit to Pyongyang, North Korea by Russian President Vladimir Putin that the North Korean's began their nuclear sabre rattling, but Moscow's apologists see this as nothing but pure coincidental nonsense)) and Beijing are assisting in the development of the Taep'o Dong Missiles (Hwasong 5/6). Moscow and Beijing are in a military alliance, the alliance is known to many as the Shanghai Pact.

But, back to the issue of DPRK ballistic missiles...

The Taep'o Dong 2 in a two stage, liquid fueled configuration has a range of 3,500 km or 2,175 miles and could probably reach the US island of Guam. If the missile had a third stage added to increase its range to 4,500 km or 2,796 miles then they could effectively target most of Alaska.

North Korea is still developing a Taep'o Dong 3 (Hwasong 6)ICBM with a range of 8,000 km/4,960 miles. This three-stage missile would enable Pyongyang to target the West coast of the continental United States.

There is nothing I can find to suggest that North Korea currently is capable of targeting all of the continental United States.

Can Russia? Yes.
Can Red China? Perhaps.
Can the DPRK? No.