Thanks..that's some pretty interesting census data.
I was basing my 3M casualty numbers off of various published estimates that take into account kilotons per device.
It's often been estimated that a "suitcase nuke" (in the 1 - 10 KT range) would kill about 100,000 people and irradiate many more. (Possible long-term deaths would likely exceed 100,000 per device but I haven't seen hard numbers on this).
I'd always thought nukes have much more "range" than they seem to. Even the 10KT devices (which are the likely suitcase kind if memory serves me right) don't obliterate as much as you'd think. (This is from several sources like "Nuclear War Survival Skills" which is available online in a bunch of places).
One way or the other, it would make one heckuva mess. But the retaliation would be far, FAR worse - and the sponsor states know it, IMHO.
So, while there are PERHAPS (IMHO, though I still doubt it!) nukes on CONUS soil, I think the threat of MAD against sponsor countries prevent their use - now and for a long time to come. And, with each passing day - NEST (assuming they are out hunting) comes that much closer to finding them..or, the CIA/etc get that much more info from interrogations that help in the hunt.
Remember the casualties depend on the density of the population where a nuke goes off. I have seen the 100K figure, but didn't see anything about the assumption.
Look what I just found:
http://travel.state.gov/nuclear_incidents.html U.S. Department of State
Washington, D.C.
FACT SHEET
Guidance for Responding to Radiological and Nuclear Incidents
Nuclear Detonations
A nuclear detonation, with the resultant radiation, blast and thermal injuries, would be a catastrophic event. In addition to the nuclear fallout and associated damage to structures, a nuclear detonation will severely disrupt civil authority and infrastructure, complicating evacuations and re-establishment of normal operations within a country. All nuclear detonations have four factors in common: blast effect, thermal radiation, ionizing radiation, and electro-magnetic pulse.
Blast effects are dynamic winds and static overpressure. Dynamic winds are much like those experienced during a hurricane, although more localized and of higher velocity. In addition to blowing down structures, these winds can pick up debris that can damage other objects and persons due to their high velocity. Static overpressure is the increase in pressure when the blast wave surrounds an object. Static overpressure has a crushing effect on hollow objects and can crush buildings and damage internal organs. A 10-kiloton nuclear surface detonation will create a crater 600 feet in diameter, 170 feet deep, and have serious destructive blast effects for 1.2 miles. \
Thermal radiation is the intense heat and light released by a nuclear burst. It can cause temporary or permanent blindness, burns and fires. Burns can be related to the blast (flash burns) or a result of secondary fires. A 10-kiloton surface nuclear detonation will generate serious skin burns for up to about 1.3 miles. Severe eye injury leading to blindness can occur from looking directly at the blast many miles beyond the range at which all other immediate effects occur.
Ionizing radiation is the radiation produced by a nuclear detonation. Outside of the detonation zone this is the most critical issue for survivors. Initially, there is an intense burst of gamma and neutron radiation that travels outward from ground zero with the thermal radiation. Soil below the fireball can also become radioactive. The material from the bomb that is not consumed in the explosion, as well as debris incorporated into the fireball and made radioactive, will return to earth as radioactive fallout. This fallout will emit gamma, alpha, and beta radiation. Amounts of radiation experienced with a detonation depend on the method of detonation (air, surface or subsurface), what the components of the bomb are, and what type of bomb it is: fission (explosion and radiation) or fission-fusion (an initial nuclear explosive component that triggers a bigger reaction/explosion and radiation release). Environmental conditions, weather patterns, rain, wind, and terrain can greatly influence the effects of the blast and the resultant fallout. Electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) is another effect of an aboveground or air nuclear detonation. This intense magnetic field has the ability to adversely affect or destroy unshielded electronic equipment by burning/fusing the internal circuits. A burst of EMP will disrupt and destroy communications equipment. EMP affects all modern electronic components. A strong EMP will nullify radio, television, cell phone, and telephone communications. Ground burst detonations may generate EMP up to 2 miles from the point of detonation.
Say the attacks come from dissident cells that have been living here. Then who do we hit?