Remember the casualties depend on the density of the population where a nuke goes off. I have seen the 100K figure, but didn't see anything about the assumption.
Look what I just found:
http://travel.state.gov/nuclear_incidents.html U.S. Department of State
Washington, D.C.
FACT SHEET
Guidance for Responding to Radiological and Nuclear Incidents
Nuclear Detonations
A nuclear detonation, with the resultant radiation, blast and thermal injuries, would be a catastrophic event. In addition to the nuclear fallout and associated damage to structures, a nuclear detonation will severely disrupt civil authority and infrastructure, complicating evacuations and re-establishment of normal operations within a country. All nuclear detonations have four factors in common: blast effect, thermal radiation, ionizing radiation, and electro-magnetic pulse.
Blast effects are dynamic winds and static overpressure. Dynamic winds are much like those experienced during a hurricane, although more localized and of higher velocity. In addition to blowing down structures, these winds can pick up debris that can damage other objects and persons due to their high velocity. Static overpressure is the increase in pressure when the blast wave surrounds an object. Static overpressure has a crushing effect on hollow objects and can crush buildings and damage internal organs. A 10-kiloton nuclear surface detonation will create a crater 600 feet in diameter, 170 feet deep, and have serious destructive blast effects for 1.2 miles. \
Thermal radiation is the intense heat and light released by a nuclear burst. It can cause temporary or permanent blindness, burns and fires. Burns can be related to the blast (flash burns) or a result of secondary fires. A 10-kiloton surface nuclear detonation will generate serious skin burns for up to about 1.3 miles. Severe eye injury leading to blindness can occur from looking directly at the blast many miles beyond the range at which all other immediate effects occur.
Ionizing radiation is the radiation produced by a nuclear detonation. Outside of the detonation zone this is the most critical issue for survivors. Initially, there is an intense burst of gamma and neutron radiation that travels outward from ground zero with the thermal radiation. Soil below the fireball can also become radioactive. The material from the bomb that is not consumed in the explosion, as well as debris incorporated into the fireball and made radioactive, will return to earth as radioactive fallout. This fallout will emit gamma, alpha, and beta radiation. Amounts of radiation experienced with a detonation depend on the method of detonation (air, surface or subsurface), what the components of the bomb are, and what type of bomb it is: fission (explosion and radiation) or fission-fusion (an initial nuclear explosive component that triggers a bigger reaction/explosion and radiation release). Environmental conditions, weather patterns, rain, wind, and terrain can greatly influence the effects of the blast and the resultant fallout. Electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) is another effect of an aboveground or air nuclear detonation. This intense magnetic field has the ability to adversely affect or destroy unshielded electronic equipment by burning/fusing the internal circuits. A burst of EMP will disrupt and destroy communications equipment. EMP affects all modern electronic components. A strong EMP will nullify radio, television, cell phone, and telephone communications. Ground burst detonations may generate EMP up to 2 miles from the point of detonation.
"Severe eye injury leading to blindness can occur from looking directly at the blast many miles beyond the range at which all other immediate effects occur."
I have often wondered How far away you would have to be in order to be safe viewing this. There is the real possiblity that you could be outside or driving somewhere and see something like this in the distance before you even had a clue as to what it was. Hence it would be too late to not look at it.
AlQ's detonation would be useless in the Windy City for our winds are 'never' predictable, for direction or velocity, it could all blow right into Lake Michigan from anywhere downtown