Zogby: Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative

zogby.com ^ | January 20, 2004 | zogby

[KQQL]

As Democrats Vote in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Bush Looks Vulnerable in Both His Re-Elect and Face-Off with Generic Democrat; Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative; Democrats Lead Over Republicans in Congressional Generic, New Zogby International Poll Reveals

President George W. Bush’s job performance has dropped since mid- December, while his vulnerability increases when matched against an unnamed Democrat or when respondents are asked if he should be re-elected.

The most recent Zogby America poll of 1000 likely voters chosen at random was conducted January 15-18, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population.Margins are higher in sub-groups.

Bush Job Performance Positive% Negative %

January 15-18, 2004 49 50

Nearly two in five (41%) would vote for Bush, while 45% would opt to support an unnamed Democrat over Bush. In December polling, Bush held a slight edge over a generic Democrat. Nearly one in eight are unsure or prefer another choice.

Date Bush % Any Democrat %

January 15-18, 2004 41 45

Pollster John Zogby: “The country is clearly divided just as it was during the 2000 election. According to the O’Leary/Zogby Red & Blue State Monitor, a plurality of Red State voters (Bush 2000) voters believe the country is headed in the right direction (49%), while 38% say it’s the wrong direction. In the Blue States (Gore 2000) 46% think the country is headed in the wrong direction while 41% say it’s the right direction. In both Red and Blue States (13%) a similar number unsure

[finnman69]

Zogby Tracking - Iowa
Date Dean Gephardt Kerry Edwards Clark Lieberman
January 16-18 22% 18% 25% 21% 2% 1%
January 15-17 23% 19% 24% 18% 3% 1%
January 14-16 22% 19% 23% 18% 3% 1%
January 13-15 19% 19% 24% 17% 3% 1%
January 12-14 21% 21% 22% 17% 3% 1%
January 11-13 24% 21% 21% 15% 3% 1%
January 10-12 28% 23% 17% 14% 2% 1%
January 9-11 26% 23% 16% 12% 2% 2%
January 8-10 25% 23% 15% 14% 3% 3

[Capt. Tom]

Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative;

A good State of the Union speech should take care of that. - Tom

[LS]

I'm sorry, but there is no polling evidence at all that Bush's "conservative base" is eroding, in any way, shape, or form.

That's why I noted that when pollsters get inside the numbers, they are finding Bush's GOP support is in the 90s, which is, I hate to tell you, unheard of.

[KQQL]

ZOGBY and others Recent IA Polling VS Actual Results.

---------------------------------------------

Kerry Edwards Dean Gephardt Clark Lieberman

Final Caucus Results 37.7% 31.9% 18.1% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Poll Dean Gephardt Kerry Edwards Clark Lieberman

Zogby Tracking (1/16-18) | 22% 18% 25% 21% 2% 1%

Insider Advantage (1/16-18) 19% 13% 24% 16% 1% 1%

Iowa Poll (1/13-16) 20% 18% 26% 23% 2% 1%

SurveyUSA (1/13-15) 24% 20% 21% 22% n/a n/a

KCCI (1/12-14) 22% 18% 21% 18% 2% 1%

LA Times (1/5-8) 30% 23% 18% 11% 4% 2%

QC Times (1/4-8) 23% 18% 15% 9% n/a n/a

http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/iowa_polls.html
=================================================

WINNER:
Iowa Poll (1/13-16) Dean 20% Dickey 18% Kerry 26% Eddy 23%

[finnman69]

2002 Elections.....ooops

Zogby 10/26 - 10/29 49%R 51%D D + 2%

[oceanview]

but it works. look at Kerry. the media uses skewed polls to pull undecideds in the direction they want. they wanted Dean defeated, float a few polls showing Kerry making a move, and the sheeple will climb on board.

[ItsOurTimeNow]

Is this the same Zogby who considers "fair" to be a negative ranking?

[Diogenesis]

ZOGBY SAUCE DATA [ERROR ANALYSIS]:

Zogby IA Poll for 01/18/04 - Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18.
Actual IA caucus 01/20/04 - Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18, Gephardt drops out

CONCLUSION - ZOGBY off by 14% on Kerry, and a roomful of monkeys could do better
ZOGBY attempts to influence polls, for what purpose?

[KQQL]

@

[theDentist]

That's Bush's fault, pushing that "immigration amnesty" debacle, not to mention the McCain-Feingold bill.

[mystery-ak]

Have at it.

[shhrubbery!]

Zogby gained undeserved credibility years ago when he was one of the few to predict an election right.

He's been off-base ever since then, but continues to use the media's credulousness to spread biased polls, serving his pro-Arab anti-Bush agenda.

[phil_will1]

My recollection is that W has consistently fared poorly against "an unnamed Democrat", but polls much better when matched against any of the likely Dem nominees 1 on 1.

Perhaps the Dems should capitalize on that by not publicly announcing who their nominee is. Would it be legal to just put "Democratic nominee", rather than someone's name, on the ballot?

[Plutarch]

That Bush should have lower numbers just after announcing he is planning to give illegals amnesty is not such a bad thing.

[GROOVY]

Looks like Zig-Zog was off by 13% on Kerry and 11% on Edwards for the Iowa caucus with his last poll. Not sure why commentators were saying the polls were so accurate last night.

[KQQL]

Too bad the MADMAN LOST IA

[DrDeb]

ZOGBY POLL RESULTS MUST ALWAYS BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FOLLOWING DISCLAIMER:


Zogby uses a 4-category Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor schemata vs the traditional 2-category approve/disapprove schemata:

Zogby includes Excellent and Good responses only in his summative 'approve' stat, even though he admits that at least 50% of those who answer 'Fair' would also indicate that they APPROVE of the President's job performance. For this reason, Zogby's APPROVAL ratings are always 6-10 points BELOW traditional approve/disapprove surveys like the ABCNews/WashingtonPost completed during the SAME time period!

ABCNEWS/WASHINGTONPOST:
1/15-18/04
58% approve / 39% disapprove (+19)
[93% approval from Republicans]

[finnman69]

Zog did call the Kerry Edwards surge correctly. the final caucus numbers are a little different as the caucuses are not straight up and down votes.

[mywholebodyisaweapon]

Two questions:

1. How were "likely" voters chosen?
2. Isn't Zogby figuring in Democrat voter fraud?

Also, it sounds like Zogby's result would result in an electoral victory for Bush as well as a popular vote victory. Not bad, espeically when there isn't a very well defined opponent.

[isthisnickcool]

I believe John Zogby about like I believe his brother. Which means I don't CAIR what either one say about anything.