Posted on 01/16/2004 5:52:21 PM PST by Dan from Michigan
Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Keeping Mum On Guns
1/14/2004
Feature Story
by Dick Dahl
The conventional wisdom within the Democratic Party is that gun control has become too risky an issue for candidates to include in their platforms. And as the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary draw near, it's clear that the party's nine Presidential aspirants, at least, are heeding that message.
On Jan. 12, Americans for Gun Safety (AGS) released the results of a survey showing that "the Democratic candidates are taking the gun issue to the political center." The survey (available on the organization's website, www.americansforgunsafety.com) found that six of the eight candidates surveyed (the Rev. Al Sharpton had not yet returned the questionnaire) opposed the federal licensing of gun owners and registration of handguns, both of which were supported by candidates Bill Bradley and Al Gore in their 2000 campaigns. In addition, AGS found that all eight of the candidates surveyed said they believe that the Second Amendment provides private gun-ownership rights.
While candidates may be moving toward the political center on guns, they're also moving toward silence. And according to gun-violence-prevention experts, the paucity of discussion about gun issues in Iowa and New Hampshire is problematic. First, as Coalition to Stop Gun Violence (CSGV) federal director Jill Ward points out, "there's a lot of revisionist history going on" about how gun control fared in the last two general elections and candidates may be ducking it for that reason. "The conventional wisdom has been that the gun issue did Al Gore in -- and the NRA has been very good at convincing especially moderate and rural Democrats of that," she says.
An article by pollster Celinda Lake on the CSGV website notes that in 2000 the NRA poured enormous money into three battleground states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- and lost all three by bigger margins than anticipated because Gore's support for stronger gun laws proved popular in suburban areas. She wrote that the NRA has ignored those losses and instead only boasts of its successes in West Virginia, Tennessee, and Arkansas. "But West Virginia went for Bush because miners were afraid -- unfoundedly so -- that Gore's environmental policies might lead to job losses," Lake wrote. "And Republicans were effective at appealing to religious conservatives in Arkansas and Tennessee who had come to see Gore as too liberal." In addition, despite the fact that Democratic Congressional candidates backed off the issue after 2000 and even embraced NRA positions in many 2002 races, they fared much worse in 2002 than in 2000.
Second, the advocates say, the minimal discussion about guns among Democratic presidential contenders may be giving the misleading appearance, at least to the media, that the public doesn't care about the gun issue. "As a policy matter, it's very much a live issue," says CSGV policy director Eric Gorovitz. "It's an issue that voters care about. It just keeps coming up because people keep getting shot. It's not moribund because you can't kill it." The problem, he says, is that while most Americans do favor stronger gun laws, they are less apt to vote the issue than gun-rights supporters are. "So to the extent that (gun control) appears moribund, it's an expression of that polarity," Gorovitz says.
While Democratic Presidential candidates aren't talking much about guns, Gorovitz says their hesitation might be more a reflection of uncertainty than lack of interest, however. "They don't want to talk about it broadly because nobody's figured out how to do that," he says, "and partly there's this sense that it's a dead issue and can only cause harm. But that's only because the press keeps describing it that way, in my view."
On the other hand, there's little evidence that frontrunner Howard Dean's position on guns, which earned him an A rating from the NRA when he was the governor of Vermont, has hurt him much in the campaign. The phenomenon of a Democratic Presidential frontrunner who enjoys an A rating from the NRA may only be encouraging the assessment of gun control as a weak issue for Democrats.
But as John Johnson, executive director of Iowans for the Prevention of Gun Violence, points out, Dean has modified his position on guns substantially from 1992, shortly after he was elected governor, when he wrote on an NRA questionnaire that he opposed restrictions on assault weapons. Today, Dean says he supports continuation of the 1994 assault-weapons ban, which is set to end in mid-September, only six weeks before the election. He also says he supports the Brady background check on gun buyers and favors closure of the "gun-show loophole." While these three positions earn him the support of gun-violence-prevention groups, his contrary insistence that further legislation be left to the states does not.
Dean's position on guns may be "schizophrenic," as the NRA has termed it, but his move as a Presidential candidate to embrace several gun-control positions reveals a recognition that "while an A rating might work running for governor in Vermont, it won't work for trying to get the Democratic nomination," Johnson says.
Similarly, Johnson says that the candidates' unanimous support for reauthorization of the assault-weapons ban says something about the political importance of that issue to any Democrat who seeks the presidency. "They may not feel it's an important element of their campaign strategy," he says, "but they know they can't be on the wrong side of this issue."
The ban, with its expiration date so close to the election, looms as the gun issue that could yet have a pronounced impact on national campaigns this year. While Republican leadership could quietly kill the ban by keeping the matter from coming to a vote, gun-violence-prevention advocates believe there's enough public support to force the issue. "I think there's going to have to be some sort of Congressional response, and I think there's going to be more conversation as we move toward that date," says Ward.
Meanwhile, the NRA-backed effort to provide immunity from civil lawsuits to the gun industry, may be stalling in the Senate. The Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence and other organizations have led a vigorous campaign to fight off the immunity bill, which has already passed the House. But even though the bill has gotten 55 Senate sponsors, 60 votes would be needed to overcome a promised filibuster by opponents of the bill. In addition, Gorovitz says, Democratic leaders have made a commitment to attach amendments, such as one that would close the gun-show loophole, which would be politically unpalatable to many senators.
"The more these things get pushed into an election year, the harder they are to steamroll," Gorovitz says. "Because it's crossed into January, I think we're in a position now where these issues are more likely to be very active in national campaigns. And I think that has a lot of Republicans really worried."
Bush lost because of the economy, black vote, and the DUI. Gun laws(in MI) may have hurt him in Farmington Hills and Okemos, but helped him in Shiawasse, NE MI, and the normally democrat UP(where he won). I remember one ad as well that was for Gore saying that Bush would have the Japanese flood the country with enviro friendly cars.
The GOP kept the state house as well, after passing CCW. That includes swing seats.
"while an A rating might work running for governor in Vermont, it won't work for trying to get the Democratic nomination," Johnson says.
No @^#@. Not to mention MONEY. Soros money. Andrew McKelvey money. Hollywood money. Manhatten Money. Ann Arbor Money. Chicago Money.
Democratic leaders have made a commitment to attach amendments, such as one that would close the gun-show loophole, which would be politically unpalatable to many senators.
Heads up!!!!
And I think that has a lot of Republicans really worried."
What worries me is complacency. When gun owners are SCARED, they win.
Yet again, you show why you're such a valued poster around here.
I strongly recommend voting Constitution Party instead. Staying home sends no message whatsoever.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1059105/posts
OK, I'm dreaming.
5.56mm
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