Posted on 01/03/2004 9:37:26 AM PST by Clive
Despite sniping and chortling about perceived dissension within the new Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), their best asset may well be the great expectations centred on Paul Martin as PM.
As history has repeatedly proved, extravagant expectations for new leaders or governments are almost always unwarranted and often a prelude to disaster.
Conversely, leaders who come in with no expectations, or with predictions of doom, often perform better than anticipated.
That may seem small comfort to the CPC right now, but it should be discomforting for the Martin Liberals (who are probably too arrogant to pay much heed).
When Tory John Diefenbaker won the greatest proportionate majority in Canada's history in 1957, the high hopes of the nation were almost immediately dashed. He failed to live up to promise.
In 1968, when Pierre Trudeau won the Liberals their first majority government since Louis St. Laurent, the adoration of the nation quickly cooled. In the very next election, Trudeau's Liberals formed a minority government with a two-seat edge.
Rarely have doom-sayers been so numerous and unanimous as in their conviction that if Ronald Reagan were elected president, calamity and possibly nuclear war would follow. Instead, it was the Soviet Union that imploded and Reagan, as president, was beloved and performed gloriously and triumphantly.
Jimmy Carter, defeated by Reagan in 1980, was regarded as an intellectual giant, yet he turned out to be one of America's most ineffectual presidents.
George Bush was regarded as mediocre when he assumed the presidency, but after 9/11 was seen by many as "the right man." With Saddam now captured and the U.S. economy picking up steam, some think Bush may sweep 50 states in the 2004 vote.
Momentary blips
As for the CPC, defections of the disenchanted are momentary blips. So what if Joe Clark sits as an independent? He's not going to run in the next election. And the defection of Scott Brison to the Liberals isn't much of a loss.
Brison's justifications for switching (not wanting to be a "poster boy" for gays in the CPC) are thin, and weren't a concern when he sought the Tory leadership and when he voted for union with the Alliance. I'll be surprised if Martin or the Liberals ever trust him.
No one expects much from the CPC before the next election, likely in the spring, before the country has a chance to assess Martin as PM, and when hopes are still unrealistically high.
Regardless, in the next election the Liberals will get a large majority. The CPC should grow, too, adding a few new (ex-Tory) seats in the Maritimes. After the next vote, the Liberals will start to erode.
Martin's first cabinet looks better than the one it replaces. But Bill Graham has the potential for disaster in Foreign Affairs. Scolding the Israeli ambassador for Israel's justice system, while kow-towing to the Saudi ambassador after that country's appalling treatment of prisoners, does not serve Canada well.
Anne McLellan as deputy prime minister is a sop to Alberta, but she won't be as dynamic as Sheila Copps in that role. McClellan has brains, but can be stubborn and despotic-- witness the fiasco of gun registration and her refusal to admit errors.
As PM, Martin's greatest asset is that he isn't Jean Chretien. Establishment to the core, Martin will bring integrity and ethics to government. We shall find out soon enough if he's a real leader. Will encouraging words be translated into deeds? Updating the military may be the barometer.
Has Martin the grit to scrap the long gun registry that has already cost over $1 billion, made criminals out of unknown thousands of Canadians and turned gun ownership statistics into a total mess? Will Martin straighten out immigration laws that persecute aging Ukrainians who were teenagers in World War II? How about legislation to quickly deport illegals with false documents?
Has Martin the stomach to get off the fence in the Middle East and not equate Israeli reprisal raids with suicidal terrorists who blow up buses? Will Martin openly start to distance himself and Canada from the anti-Americanism that infected the Chretien government? Under Martin, will Canada move towards being an ally in the U.S.-British- Australian coalition that seeks to bring decency, security, peace and justice to parts of the world that lack them, an area in which the UN has abdicated responsibility?
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