China would risk much over Taiwan

UPI ^ | December 15, 2003 | Ed Lanfranco

[Tailgunner Joe]

BEIJING

[freebilly]

Mr. Karniol added, "the Chinese won't launch pre-emptive strikes against these places because I don't think they would want to draw the Americans into a conflict unless they really have to."

The Chinese have too much to lose. They are going to continue to posture and threaten, but until they are convinced that the US will do nothing, they'll continue doing nothing regarding Taiwan.

[Elliott Jackalope]

As I understand it, Taiwan is home to TSMC and UMC, two of the largest silicon chip foundries in the world. If China were to take over Taiwan, they would then control a large part of the integrated circuit production of the world. All of the "fabless" companies would be having to have their latest and greatest circuit technology fabbed by the ChiComs. This is not a good scenario IMHO.

[jwh_Denver]

"The Chinese people will pay any price to safeguard the unity of the motherland," he said.

Uh, I wonder if they asked the Chinese "people".

[Jack Black]

The funny thing is almost every Chinese person I know, whether Taiwanese or Mainlander feel that there is only "One China". I don't think the referendum would pass for independence. That is hard for Americans to understand, with our deep love of freedom. How could you *not* vote to be independent and free vs. part of a larger whole that still lacks a lot of liberty. But many Chinese don't seem to see it that way.

[Nachoman]

Seems to me the answer is simple. Run China under a bi-chameral form of government; one house commie, on house demo. At some point the democratic way would start to turn the commies to their side, or nothing would ever get done because no agreement could be reached.

[meenie]

The "one China" policy is a sham. Formosa was a part of the Japanese domain until the end of WW II. Chiang Kia Shek fled with his followers to Formosa after being defeated in the Chinese civil war. Since then it has been renamed Tiawan. The fact remains that China has never owned the island of Formosa or Tiawan.

China with the people of Tiawan would be similar to the Confederates that emigrated to the Argentine after the civil war giving us the duty to invade and capture Agentina. China's aim is aggression, pure and simple, to punish the people of Tiawan for not accepting the communist way of life. Any other representation is false and a blow against freedom.

[jaykay]

No need to ask the Chinese people. They already know what the people think. After all, they told them what to think.

[Cronos]

The taiwanese would destroy the factories rather than let it fall into Chinese hands. That is unless they are filled with folks like Taiwan semi who believe that the Commie leadership is good and that democracy is 'messy'

[Cronos]

Hello, what about Tibet then? Tibet has never been part of China. At the most the head Lamas had treaties with some forgotten Chinese Emperor. on what basis does China hold Tibet? It's the same as Irq invading Kuwait.

[meenie]

Very true. Both instances show the true intentions of the Chinese. Yet we humor them and appease them because of the mistaken notion it is in our business interests to do so. Sad, but economic interests take presidence over freedom and security everywhere.

[Cronos]

Exactly, and we will still appease them and we're going to the largest democracy India and fledgling democracy Russia into alliances with china to keep it at bay -- it's a no hoper but they may have no choice. On the other hand if we get a bit more forceful and support the Russians and Indians in containing China we could have an upper hand.

[CHATTAB]

Do you have any information or links about Confederates that emigrated to the Argentine after the American civil war?

[Stingray51]

"They've got plenty of missiles aimed at Taiwan that can do damage, but the PLA doesn't have the means of amphibious assault to take the island," the diplomat said. "Without this, preventing independence is problematic," he added.

I assume that Taiwan's economy is built on exports. If so, all China would have to do to cause Taiwan tremendous pain would be to announce a naval blockade. I would think that China would not actually have to be able to enforce the blockade but that its mere announcement would be enough to make shipping so expensive that Taiwan's exports would be unable to compete. I see this as more likely, at least as the initial military move, than an outright invasion.

[meenie]

I had relatives that went. Some became disillusioned and came back. I know from the stories they told that there quite a few remaining in the Pampas area of Argentina.

[meenie]

I had relatives that went. Some became disillusioned and came back. I know from the stories they told that there quite a few remaining in the Pampas area of Argentina.

[RightWhale]

Looking ahead somewhat: If taking Taiwan turns out to be so expensive that China suffers economically for years to come, would China expect to be able to hold on to Taiwan afterwards, not to mention holding on to other territories around the edges such as Manchuria.

[taiwansemi]

I can assure you that one reason Taiwanese businesses have invested so heavily in China is because Taiwan's parliamentary political system is not only messy but often an arena for so-called "ultimate fighting" by Taiwanese politicians. Taiwanese politicians really are too busy punching and pulling each other's hair on the parliamentary floor to take care of the economy's increasingly dire ecoomic situation anymore.

[taiwansemi]

If you don't like my use of the word, "messy," to describe today's Third World republics, how about "fledgling." And it isn't just Russia's democracy which is a fledgling banana republic but every other Third World democracy on earth you can name.

[tet68]

Unity of the Mother land BS.
They are terrified that a successful independence movement
will signal the beginning of a landslide of breakaway
"autonomous regions".