Al Qaeda again threatens New York, Washington and Los Angeles - Daily Terror Threat

Debka ^ | 11-3-2003 | Staff

[tubavil]

Monday, November 3, 2003

A new message was posted in the last few hours by the Jeddah-based al-Qaeda-linked Al-Islah (Reform) society calling on Muslims to flee New York, Washington and Los Angeles in advance of major al Qaeda attacks in those cities. This is revealed by DEBKAfile.

The message accuses the United States of predetermining its end (doom) by its policies. ?The Jews rule the Pentagon by remote control and (are the cause) of Muslims being killed in every corner of the world. The United States should therefore expect more blows.?

The message is signed on behalf of the al Bayan (The Threat) movement by ?your warrior brother, Abul Hassan al Khadrami?.

Our Muslim expert identifies the name of the signatory as belonging to a Yemeni from Hadhrameuth, the Bin Ladens? place of origin where Osama enjoys substantial tribal support.

DEBKAfile?s counter-terror sources stress that warnings appearing on these forums are taken both very seriously and with caution by the intelligence services keeping track of the terrorist network?s electronic traffic.

Last November, Jeddah-based fundamentalist forums addressed a message to an Al Qaeda member, saying whoever understands ? understands; whoever knows, knows, but we are marching towards an operation that will take us to Paradise. Three days later, the Mombasa Paradise hotel was blown up killing 12 Kenyans and 3 Israelis and a failed shoulder-launched Strela anti-air missile missed an Israeli airliner at Mombasa airport.

Link to Thread 2

[Quix]

I've missed it--WHAT CITY ARE YOU IN, PIPER?

[Quix]

I know that far more knowledgeable heads on such things than mine . . .

have poohpoohed fission suitcase nukes.

AND

I have felt every time and from the beginning that they are simply wrong.

There IS a serious nuke threat that we will suffer from. Have just lone felt it--even before 9/11.

[Labyrinthos]

If they raised the bar, that means that now they do have strong specific information, maybe based on the old definition we would be at red alert.

.I was thinking the same thing. According to several LEO's that I spoke to yesterday, we in NY have some things to worry about.

[Quix]

AMEN! AMEN! AMEN!

AND IF YOU ARE A BELIEVER AND SPIRITUAL WARRIOR, TAKE AUTHORITY OVER THE SITUATION BY THE BLOOD OF THE LAMB AND HIS SPIRIT . . .

Bind the enemy and prevent him from acting; foil his plans; etc. pray Scriptures related to that.

Loose Holy Spirit to work in the situation, to expose the evil doers etc.

[Labyrinthos]

It's ok to be vigilant...but to be crying wolf everytime a propagandist posts a .jpg is a bit much. I think Daleel is related to Al Q. but I don't permit Al Q. to alert my M.O.

Daleel has been posting threats since the days leading up to the start of this thread in early November. If Daleel's propaganda provided reason for going to code orange, then that would have happened weeks ago. Something else is going on, and you don't need a tin foil hat to feel it. If you know any big city LEO's or Fed LEO's, then ask them about the threats -- not for specifics, which they won't or shouldn't give -- but for a general assessment of what they're being told. Look at their reaction. Something very real and scary is on the loose in our backyard.

[bonesmccoy]

The hypothetical "suitcase nukes" are low-yield devices. Unless you are within a few miles of the device, it is unlikely that the direct blast would involve you.

I have studied the patterns of destruction from Nagasaki and Hiroshima. The cities burned after the initial explosion because of the prevalence of wood frame construction in the residential areas. Also the local geography impacted things (channeling the blast waves up the valleys while leaving some areas untouched).

Most immediate effects outside of ground zero were flash burns and radiation illnesses after several days. The range from ground zero alters the radiation exposure to both the immediate weapon and the fallout.

Fallout patterns seem more difficult to track, though the Japanese gov't does seem to be following that information.

Our alliance with the Japanese is critical if such devices are used. The extensive medical data collection process used on the survivors can assist US physicians in predicting the outcome for hundreds of thousands.

Regarding targets of opportunity, if you approach the issue by attempting to look for worst-case scenarios, you'll drive yourself nuts. Our society is open and less secure by design. So, I strongly discourage that type of analysis by civilians. Those involved in the security sector should be doing their job and finding ways to "beef up" the defensibility of critical installations.

The Rose Bowl and Rose Parade are unlikely to be the direct targets. While it is a site that can generate high casualty counts, this year's Rose Bowl pits USC vs. Michigan. Michigan is located near the largest concentration of Muslims in the nation (Detroit/Dearborn).

I would assume, just based upon the demographics, that Michigan fans will be out in LA in force and that their fan base includes many muslims.

Nevertheless, I briefly scanned a map of Los Angeles with a mapping program and attempted to plot the scope of impact of a low-yield nuclear weapon in a given area.

The strongest strategic play appears to be a hit at the Port of LA near the point where Alaskan crude oil is offloaded from the tankers. This would at once damage import/export by the US and decrease oil production in the nation. One side impact would be damage to the Chinese economy because major goods from China are offloaded at the port. So, the ramification of an attack at the Port of LA is damage to both the US and Asian economies, which would result in a unified front against AQ in asia.

The next location that I assessed was the impact of a low-yield device near Figueroa and 1st Street (conjecturing that such an attack would be designed to damage LA's core commercial district). If the device were loaded on a truck and then detonated in the core of the city, the blast would create a tremendous fallout plume and incinerate basically 1/2 mile to 2 miles of buildings (depending upon yield of the device and the ability of modern construction to stand up to such a direct assault).

My assessment is that the worst case scenario for our economy is a direct attack on the civic center area that incinerates and destroys the center of any city.

At this point in the thought process, I decided that our governmental strategy and economic planners should be thinking differently. Prior urban planners designed our cities to have core areas that concentrate commerce or business into zones. AQ's attack power is multiplied when resources are concentrated into core areas.

It is wiser for our nation to NOT build tall structures which concentrate resources into one site. It is wiser to build urban transportation systems that are higher in speed and efficiency while permitting interlacing urban centers that can spread commerce across a larger area.

For instance, some of you tonight have been discussing what our response should be to the hypothetical attack. I think a wiser course of action is for us to ask what we do now given that the security situation for our nation is different.

If commerce in America rearranges itself to distribute commerce to suburban or rural areas with high-speed transportation links to the core of the cities, it would permit the nation to have stronger economic resiliency.

The political impact of such a Presidential directive would be that rural and suburban congressional districts would see preferential development of their economy versus urban core areas. This would mean that suburban life would change for America. Sociologically, the primarily urban cores will end up with outflow of people to the suburban areas (which are primarily white).

High-velocity transportation systems can either be freeway systems with higher speeds (70 to 80 mph so that you can drive 30 miles in less than 30 minutes) or rail systems (spoke and hub patterns likely but real estate is expensive).

Such road systems themselves then become targets of opportunity to the enemy, but architects, engineers, and scientists should work to develop techniques which permit rapid repair.

anyways, i'm up way to early today... and need to grab some breakfast.

[Quix]

THANKS TONS FOR YOUR EXCELLENT ANALYSIS.

Poohbah has said similar things about yield. And, I have no doubt you are both accurate.

Nevertheless, the fact of any nuke successfullying exploding would galvanize citizens, legislators and leaders alike.

And 10's of thousands dead is still greater than 9/11; which was plenty bad, IMHO.

But it would be less than 10's of millions.

OTOH, take Manhattan . . . assume there ARE 20+ "suitcase" nukes well maintained and ready to go . . .

Assume that 5-8 of them (or even 3-4 of them) are arranged around critical points in Manhattan . . .

It seems to me that it could get . . . at least messy.

Certainly 1-3 could make a mess of critical areas of DC.

Isn't that fairly right?

[bonesmccoy]

Quix,

The stuff posted here on FR regarding low-yield fission weapons suggests that the number of such devices is very small. The assembly and testing of such a weapon would be highly specialized work and those engineers would be obvious individuals in international scientific or engineering circles.

For such weapons to escape detection by our nation would be a huge sign of failed intel. The intel reports (hard to figure if they're correct or just disinformation) that showed up on FR were saying that the Russians had some devices of interest. If Putin's regime can not control their own devices, it would put his regime in serious jeopardy because the Russian people (who now vote on such matters) would be upset that their weapons were used on US civilians. I am not so concerned of such weapons.

I am more troubled by the possibility that North Korean produced devices would be traded by NorKor to AQ or AQ-aligned nations. The device would be shipboard and if placed in a shipping container, could be loaded and off-loaded. You would hope that inspections of containers in foreign ports with US destinations would identify such containers.

So, no, I disagree with your scenario. The likelihood that a private terror cell has several low yield weapons under it's control would be very unlikely. If AQ possessed such weapons, wouldn't there be other targets that would be of higher leverage?

The other thought is that if only one device is used and then followed by a secondary, it suggests more devices exist.

That would truly be the terror that "Daleel" seems to be suggesting.

Because the cities are so large, the likelihood of being caught up in the initial attack is very unlikely, unless you routinely work or live near civic centers of LA, Chicago, NYC, or DC.

Low yield nuclear fission devices do not seem to be useful in Washington DC. The reason is that the buildings are made of marble/stone and spaced by miles. Even if you detonated a low-yield device at Lincoln Memorial, the impact of a 1-2 kt weapon would be minimal at the Pentagon or Capitol Hill. So, I doubt that an enemy would use such devices there. The use of such a horrible weapon would need to be likely to deal a lethal first-strike attack.

Since AQ is on it's death bed, it is more likely that AQ would try to use the device to bring the US or US interests into a nuclear conflagration. So, the postings early this month on South Korean observations of AQ cells hunting for targets in ROK were intriguing. Detonation of a device in Soeul ROK or Taipei could bring about such a domino effect. Soeul would probably assume that the nuclear hit was from NorKor and retalliate with full force. The US could be drawn into such a conflict through mutual security agreements.

But, in these scenarios, US civilians are not the primary targets.

So, in the end, I remain unconvinced that an American civilian will be involved with dealing with the ramifications of the event.

In all reality, most of us have not had to deal with the effects of the 9/11 attacks directly. Most of us have had inconveniences while travelling, saw our stock portfolios decline in the year after the attacks, and may indirectly have heard of a victim or family around us; but most of us have not had direct damage from the attack.

1K-3Kton nuclear devices are not as concerning to me now.

I don't do business in urban cores anyway. So, for me, it's no problem.

For those of you who work in such places, security people can prevent these nightmare scenarios by controlling activity on the street well (no trucks on the street without explanation of business in the area).

[Quix]

GREAT FURTHER ANALYSIS. THANKS TONS.

Glad DC is not so vulnerable to tactical level nukes.

I think I agree that it's unlikely for one terror cell to have more than one nuke.

I don't have much trouble believing that there have been and are far too many failures of our Intel.

Perhaps it's more accurate to say--failures of sifting the data. But, I also think there have been and are failures in getting some key raw data.

Have long felt that containers would likely be more serious hazards in a list of ways.

A container sized nuke--even from N Korea--would be considerably more heafty than a tactical nuke, wouldn't it?

---

Personally, I'm amidst high desert, in a relatively small town amidst even sparser population. The nearest target worth bothering with are a couple of coal powered electric plants 15 or so miles west. Those would likely be well down a LONG list for China or Russia. I doubt Al Qaeda would bother much with them though they could. They are on the Navajo reservation and Navajos are fairly sensitive and alert about strangers on their turf.

But, I have loved ones all around the planet. Certainly have them in Soeul, Taipei and many major American cities.

And no one wants to see loss of life nor the economy crashing.

And would really find it a bummer to see WWIII triggered.

Much appreciate your kind responses.

[Quix]

I don't consider AlQaeda to be on it's death-bed--with or without Bin Laden dead.

BTW, how much damage to a nuclear electric plant's containment vessel would a container sized nuke do from 500-2,000 feet away?

I AGREE about distributed infrastructure etc. vs city center congregations. Resiliency is a high priority in individuals, families, communities and nations.

Getting there at this late stage, will probably not happen enough, soon enough to prepare us much at all for WWIII.

But our spiritual resources are consistently underestimated by a list of enemies.

Thanks again.

[LikeLight]

Italy already went on a higher alert (late last week, IIRC) . . . there's an FR thread on it somewhere, probably linked upstream in this mega-super-jumbo thread . . .

[appalachian_dweller]

Thanks for the ping LayoutGuru2.

Thanks to everyone for the excellent research and analysis. Very informative.

[bonesmccoy]

question about nuclear power plant containment vessels and low yield nuclear weapons attack...

my thoughts...
1. impact damage depends on mix of concrete and type of rebar.
2. probably no standard exists for wall thickness between companies and areas
3. impact damage depends on yield of device and range to target. 1K device at 1/2 mile may not do much if there isn't much debris flying. Even objects hurtling at 400 mph may not do much damage if they hit the walls at different angles. The angle of incidence changes the force being impacted on the wall.
4. Hitting a nuclear plant won't change the price of gasoline, though it would really mess up the impression of people of the area (lower land valuations for decades).

[HitmanLV]

While I agree that the suitcase nukes are relatively small, it's not entirely fair to say that they won't have much of an impact unless a victim is relatively close.

For example, an atomic fireball would set fire to several blocks of buildings in a large city, which would mean firemen would have to tend to that out-of-control blaze before it spreads.

Also, fire would likely shoot down several subway tunnels, killing everyone in them, and as we know, fire burns upwards, and likely shoot out on to the streets from subway gratings and subway entrances.

That same fire would set off cars, people, buildings, as well as ignite dangerous gasses in the sewer system and gas lines, causing more explosions and fires around town.

There are not enough firemen to handle these out of control fires. Factor in what I would guess would be a severe power failure, and one or two suitcase nukes would make manhattan quite a hot place to be in for a while.

[mhking]

High Profile Sporting events in the near term

Monday, December 22
MAZDA TANGERINE BOWL
N.C. State at Kansas, 5:30 PM ET
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Green Bay at Oakland, 9 PM ET (ABC)

Tuesday, December 23
PLAINS CAPITAL FORT WORTH BOWL
TCU at Boise State, 7:30 PM ET

Wednesday, December 24
LAS VEGAS BOWL
Oregon State at New Mexico, 7:30 PM ET

Thursday, December 25
NBA TRIPLEHEADER (ESPN/ABC)
Cleveland at Orlando, 2:30 PM ET
Dallas at Sacramento, 6 PM ET
Houston at LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET
SHERATON HAWAII BOWL
Houston at Hawaii, 8:00 PM ET

Friday, December 26
MOTOR CITY BOWL
Northwestern at Bowling Green, 5:00 PM ET
INSIGHT BOWL
Virginia Tech at California, 9:00 PM ET

Saturday, December 27
NFL TRIPLEHEADER (CBS/FOX/ESPN)
Buffalo at New England, 1:30 pm ET
Seattle at San Francisco, 5:15 pm ET
Philadelphia at Washington, 8:30 pm ET
CONTINENTAL TIRE BOWL
Pittsburgh at Virginia, 11:00 AM ET

Sunday, December 28
NFL WEEK 17 (CBS/FOX/ESPN)
Chicago at Kansas City, 1:00 pm ET
Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 pm ET
Dallas at New Orleans, 1:00 pm ET
Indianapolis at Houston, 1:00 pm ET
Jacksonville at Atlanta, 1:00 pm ET
N.Y. Jets at Miami, 1:00 pm ET
St. Louis at Detroit, 1:00 pm ET
Tampa Bay at Tennessee, 1:00 pm ET
Carolina at N.Y. Giants, 4:05 pm ET
Minnesota at Arizona, 4:05 pm ET
Denver at Green Bay, 4:15 pm ET
Oakland at San Diego, 4:15 pm ET
Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 8:30 pm ET

Monday, December 29
MASTERCARD ALAMO BOWL
Michigan State at Nebraska, 9:00 PM ET

Tuesday, December 30
EV1.NET HOUSTON BOWL
Navy at Texas Tech, 4:30 PM ET
PACIFIC LIFE HOLIDAY BOWL
Texas at Washington State, 8:00 PM ET
SILICON VALLEY FOOTBALL CLASSIC
UCLA at Fresno State, 10:30 PM ET

Wednesday, December 31
GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL
Wisconsin at Auburn, 12:00 PM ET
WELLS FARGO SUN BOWL
Oregon at Minnesota, 2:00 PM ET
AXA LIBERTY BOWL
Utah at Southern Miss, 3:30 PM ET
MAINSTAY INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Missouri at Arkansas, 7:30 PM ET
DIAMOND WALNUT SF BOWL
Boston College at Colorado State, 10:30 PM ET

Thursday, January 1
OUTBACK BOWL
Iowa at Florida, 11:00 AM ET
TOYOTA GATOR BOWL
Maryland at West Virginia, 12:30 PM ET
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Georgia at Purdue, 1:00 PM ET
ROSE BOWL PRESENTED BY CITI
Michigan at USC, 5:00 PM ET
FEDEX ORANGE BOWL
Miami at Florida State, 8:30 PM ET

Friday, January 2
SBC COTTON BOWL CLASSIC
Oklahoma State at Mississippi, 2:00 PM ET
CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL
Tennessee at Clemson, 4:30 PM ET
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL
Kansas State at Ohio State, 8:00 PM ET

Saturday, January 3
NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND (ABC)
Game 1, Location TBA, 4:30 PM ET
Game 2, Location TBA, 8 PM ET
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Georgia Tech at Tulsa, 12:00 PM ET

Sunday, January 4
NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND (FOX/CBS)
NFC Wild Card Game, Location TBA, 1 PM ET
AFC Wild Card Game, Location TBA, 4:30 PM ET
NOKIA SUGAR BOWL
Oklahoma at LSU, 8:00 PM ET

[mhking]

Low yield nuclear fission devices do not seem to be useful in Washington DC. The reason is that the buildings are made of marble/stone and spaced by miles. Even if you detonated a low-yield device at Lincoln Memorial, the impact of a 1-2 kt weapon would be minimal at the Pentagon or Capitol Hill. So, I doubt that an enemy would use such devices there. The use of such a horrible weapon would need to be likely to deal a lethal first-strike attack.

Keep in mind that these low-lifes have at least a rudimentary understanding of American culture and lifestyle. At this time of the year, outside of sporting events like I posted above, they KNOW that the average American is at the mall.

I'd strongly suggest looking at the larger malls and shopping areas in each of those areas (Tyson's Corner or Potomac Mills in Washington, Paramus Park in North Jersey, Fifth Avenue/Park Avenue in Manhattan, Woodfield Mall or Michigan Avenue in Chicago). If they are looking for maximum collateral damage, those areas would be serious targets in each of those metro areas. There are other potential targets for sure, but don't forget - they are not only interested in damaging out command/control structure, but to cause maximum panic and fear among the populace as well.

One other area that would be attractive would be the airports themselves. JFK, Dulles, O'Hare, LAX (not to mention Hartsfield & DFW) will all be full of passengers, both foreign and domestic, originating, terminating and transitioning their trips in these gateway cities. A device placed within one of the terminals at any of these airports will accomplish their task just as readily and with significant loss of life as well.

[WestCoastGal]

The info on UBL's frail health and almost being spotted by one of our aircraft and the elevation to orange decision was from Fox News. I don't remember which of their analysts provided it, the two stories were from different people.

They just mentioned today that UBL places mines around his camp and in the case of an impending capture would use one to martyr himself.

I believe Red alert would only be used when something actually happens. (Because it will scare the &%$# out of everyone).Depending on the type of attack, groundstops can be implemented like on 9-11, more National Guard can be deployed and whatever else is necessary. I think someone on one of these threads has listed the different scenarios for the change of alert levels.

Also heard yesterday that Mullah Omar was in a mosque when Afghan police entered, they didn't recognize him and he led them in prayer. Now, this one seems really hard to believe, but it also was discussed on Fox at the same time as the UBL story.

The most interesting aspect of these stories, if true, is that there is someone VERY close to both of these guys that is reporting either to us or to someone else that is reporting to our intelligence services. Now that they got Saddam, the intelligence and special forces hunters can move back over to UBL.

[Pegita]

Heavenly Father, we return to give You thanks that You are Sovereign ... that there is nothing that escapes Your view ... that all things work together for good, for those who love the Lord. Thank You for the comfort of Your words, for they explain what we cannot. We are in the midst of chilling days within our country, and abroad, and we are anxious, O God, for we are fearful that death and destruction may be upon us.

By the Power of the Holy Spirit, impress upon our hearts that our fears belong before the Throne of Grace ... "Cast your burdens on the Lord and he will sustain you; he will never permit the righteous to be moved." Psalm 55:22 ~ Thank You, Creator God, that we can know that we are secure in You, even when we are secure no where else.

"When I am afraid, I put my trust in thee." Psalm 56:3 ~ Thank You, Lord of Hosts, that we have sanctuary with You and that we need not fear, for You are King of Kings and Lord of Lords.

Merciful Father, we pray that Your mighty hand would hold back any and all attempts to slay our beloved countrymen and innocent people across the globe. So few with evil intent can hold multitudes in fear, but greater are You who is in us, than he that is in the world. We call upon this Heavenly Power to protect the people, to defend us, to turn back the tide of murderous abandon. Bring many to Your blessed self in these perilous times, for You are not willing that any should perish.

Of ourselves, Lord, we are so insufficient ... with You, Lord, we are more than conquerors. Disarm the enemy, that we might go forth again in peace and safety ... that we might continue to remain in freedom, not just for ourselves, but for our brothers and sisters throughout the world. Protect those who protect us, for surely this battle is spiritual. May we be graced with wisdom and discernment as we become protectors and defenders where we are. You have blessed America, O Lord ... and we thank You. We hunger and thirst that this freedom continues to bless us in our beloved country, and that it extends to all nations. May it be thus, Heavenly Father, may it be thus, in the name of Jesus, Amen ...

[Poohbah]

Suitcase nukes are extensively overhyped.

They are what is known as "sub-critical" or "fractional-crit" weapons. This means that they use less than a full critical mass of fissionable material. It is possible to detonate a fractional-crit weapon; it is, however, rather difficult.

These weapons require a lot of neutrons. This requires an extremely generous neutron source (a small nuclear accelerator that uses tritium and deuterium) and "boosting" (essentially, injecting tritium and deuterium into the weapon pit immediately before the explosives detonate).

Tritium has a half-life of 12.3 years. It decays to Helium-3, which is a very efficient neutron absorber. Any Helium-3 in the pit will tend to "poison" the chain reaction. We've had more than a few nuclear tests generate "fizzle yields" (no nuclear yield) due to very small amounts of Helium-3.

A fractional-crit device will require about 10 grams of tritium, and that tritium must be replaced frequently.

Tritium costs about $50,000 a gram, or about $1,550,000 a troy ounce. Gold is only $400 a troy ounce. One suitcase nuke will require $500,000 worth of tritium.

Price acts as its own rationing mechanism: when something costs that much, accounting on it is extremely tight. Accounting on tritium goes down to below the milligram level. (One milligram of tritium costs $50.)

Absent a large an expensive infrastructure to service the weapon, a suitcase nuke becomes unusable in a matter of weeks.

[WestCoastGal]

***From NIN Website***

Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction

With regard to the possibility of nuclear weapons already in the United States, purchased by bin Laden from Russian stockpiles using proceeds from opium sales, there was ample evidence found in Kabul after a residence was raided by US forces in 2001. The images below, specifically the images of the handwritten notes, were found hastily discarded in a trash bin near the target of the raid. One page in particular lists 64 ingredients needed for the creation of an explosive device involving radiological material.

A historical accounting of Osama bin Laden's efforts to secure nuclear material is presented in Arabic below the images. Reference is made to the "missing" suitcase sized nuclear devices from the former Soviet Union. The indication that one or more nuclear devices will be used in a planned attack is further substantiated by Libya's recent announcement of dismantling their nuclear weapons program (Chicago Sun Times article here), although many appear to be missing the obvious. The obvious being that Libya, having been cozy with terrorist factions for a long time, is aware of the planned attacks and does not want to be on the receiving end of any retaliatory action by the US in the wake of a nuclear event within our borders.

Concerning the latest threat against the United States mainland, it is important to consider events leading up to the raising of the threat level, including but not limited to: 1. The content and timing of the most recent messages by bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri; 2. Intelligence obtained from Internet communications; 3. Data collected from recently captured terrorists. 4. Domestic surveillance of known terrorist operatives.