LATEST CORONAL MASS EJECTION TIME OF IMPACT PREDICTION (most powerful since 1989)

Solar-Terrestrial Dispatch ^ | October 28, 2003

[John H K]

Event #49 - 28 October 2003 Issued: 16:30 UTC, 28 October 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class X17.2 Flare in Region 486 at 11:10 UTC on 28 October 2003 Type II: 1250 km/sec Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 2125 km/sec

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 29 October to 21:00 UTC on 29 October Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 08:00 UTC, 29 October 2003 (3 am EST on 29 October) Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 9

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn: SOUTHWARD

IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS The preferred time of arrival is ***TONIGHT***, TUESDAY NIGHT (before you go to bed that night) near or after 3 am Eastern Standard Time). That's 2 am Central Standard Time on TONIGHT. That's 1 am Mountain Standard Time on TONIGHT. That's MIDNIGHT Pacific Standard Time on TONIGHT.

EXPECT RESIDUAL ACTIVITY (LESS INTENSE) TOMMORROW NIGHT (WEDNESDAY, 29 OCT) AS WELL !

EVENT #49 NOTES:

This is the most energetic Earthward-directed event of the solar cycle.

SEVERE to MAJOR geomagnetic storming is expected to abruptly commence following the arrival of the shock front from this flare.

This flare was associated with a Ground-Level Event. It was also associated with very high energy protons at greater than 100 MeV (which are still climbing, over 5 hours after the event began). A magnetic crochet was observed over the daylit sections of the ionosphere. An exceptionally intense shortwave fadeout and polar cap absorption event are in progress. There are reports this event was observed in white-light. Intense radio bursts were associated with this event across the spectrum. The type II shock velocity is not representative of the observed velocity of this CME. The observed velocity as determined by SOHO was 2125 km/sec.

This event has the potential to produce the strongest geomagnetic storm since 1989. Auroral activity could become visible into the deep low latitude regions. This one is worth driving a good long distance over to find clear skies. It has better potential to produce low-latitude aurora than almost any other event observed in the past decade. Keep in mind that it is also possible the disturbance may not be nearly as geoeffective as many would like. It all depends on the character of the magnetic fields imbedded within the coronal mass ejection. However, we believe it will either be very large, or only modestly large in terms of its capacity to produce disturbed geomagnetic and auroral activity. We do not expect this disturbance to be small. These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[Orangedog]

This one WAS pointed directly at earth.

And it was an X14 class. Not one of those wimpy M5's.

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

I'm up at 70 deg North latitude, and it will be very dark- hope the skies are clear tonight, but it doesn't look too good right now. Might be a really terrific aurora up here- these very energetic events produce a lot of red in the aurora, rather than the usual pale green- not too common.

[appalachian_dweller]

bumping for later reference....

Note to Self: Buy more tin foil.

Looks like this may affect our satellites. Sending prayers for our troops in harms way who depend on those. May the Lord watch over them and protect them.

I guess the worst that will happen around here (northern Va.) are some cool lights in the sky and some folks w/o cable TV.

[netmilsmom]

I know this is not a good thing but humor can break a tense situation.

[Semper Paratus]

"What did Bush know, and when did he know it?"

[John H K]

Well, even in 1989, only ONE grid went down (Hydro Quebec) and steps have been taken to try to prevent the same thing again...however, as we saw this summer, the infrastructure isn't too good.

Satellite designers are aware of the threat. You're not going to see every satellite in the sky fail, but it's quite possible there could be problems or failures in some satellites. I doubt anything that radically changes the world.

Main thing is enjoying the auroras :-)

(If it's not cloudy; TONIGHT the entire country from Ohio east will be clouded out. TOMORROW night most of the country, the southern 3/4s or so, will have clear skies. Hope for the CME to be late.)

[headsonpikes]

Which one of you broke the sun?

ROTFLMAO!!

[discostu]

"Coronal Mass Ejection", isn't that a porno? I'm sure the Hedgehog was in a movie with that title.

[Capt. Tom]

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field

Magnetic field? I think I will turn my computer off tonight. - Tom

[justshe]

Well....you CAN'T stop there....we need to hear the REST of the story!

What did your FIL say?

Did you end up going downstairs?

As my Great Aunt Jenny used to say...those who act like 5...get TREATED like 5~~ (It was a different era..I'll leave it to your imagination.)

[Domestic Church]

Celestial fluoroscopy!

[Area51]

[clintonh8r]

This wouldn't happen if all the votes had been counted...

[sit-rep]

Scuse the ejukashun levle on this ishue....

So what I read, tells me if I get up tomorrow mornig @ 0300, and break out my palm compass, it will be going a little nuts? Did I get it right?

If so, I may just check it out...

[clintonh8r]

3AM...palm compass...nuts...Hey! This is a family forum!

[Mini-14]

Can you translate the article into plain English for those of us (me) who don't understand the techno-geek-speak?

[headsonpikes]

LOL! One of my favorite vignettes.

Screensaver material. ;^)

[Alter Kaker]

I would try, except for two problems:

1. I do not speak English well.

2. While I think I understand all terms, I am not scientist and am afraid I would make mistake. Better to ping real scientist expert in English.

[heleny]

No chance to see any aurora in many places in Southern California. We've still got smoke hanging in the air.

[netmilsmom]

My FIL just about blew his pacemaker, my hubby attempted to calm him down and I grabbed my 5 & 3 year olds and got them away from the bad example.

I try to avoid her after she forgot the older one at Christmas.....